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Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez Pick, 4/27/2024 Predictions UFC Vegas 91 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 4/23/2024

Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez

UFC Vegas 91

UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, April 27, 2024

Matheus Nicolau will take on Alex Perez at UFC Vegas 91 on Saturday, April 27, 2024. The moneyline has Nicolau coming in at -192 while Perez is coming in at +160.

Matheus Nicolau has a record of 19-4-1. The 31-year-old tips the scales at 125 lbs and measures 5'6". The orthodox fighter stretches 66". Alex Perez measures 5'6" and tips the scales at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his total of 24-8-0. The 32-year-old reaches 65". With respect to significant strikes, Matheus Nicolau is connecting on 3.66 per minute and Alex Perez lands 4.12 significant strikes per minute. Nicolau is landing 53% of the significant strikes he throws and Perez is connecting on 46%. In terms of defending in the cage, Nicolau absorbs 3.14 significant strikes per min while Perez allows 3.14. Nicolau also deflects 66% of the significant strikes that are directed at him while Perez prevents 59% of the strikes thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Alex Perez ufc predictions best bet odds

 

UFC Vegas 91 Matheus Nicolau Alex Perez
Opening Odds -192 +160
Record 19-4-1 24-8-0
Average Fight Time 11:14 6:38
Height 5'6" 5'6"
Weight 125 lbs 125 lbs
Reach 66" 65"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.66 4.12
Striking Accuracy 0.53 0.46

 

Regarding takedowns, Matheus Nicolau is not as efficient of a grappler as he is able to score a takedown 1.48 times per 15 minutes. Nicolau is scoring a takedown on 45% of his tries and thwarting 93% of all takedowns attempted on him. Perez is taking his opponents down on 44% of the takedowns he tries and is stopping 82% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding going for the sub, Nicolau is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by going for 0.9 submissions per 3 rds while Perez looks to get 1.0 sub per 3 rds.

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In his previous fight, Matheus Nicolau fought Brandon Royval and ended up walking away in defeat by a knee to the head in round 1. Royval ended up landing 13 of 22 total strikes that he let go in that contest. Nicolau ended the night having landed 2 of 5 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Royval ended up landing 13 of 22, which gave him a rate of 59%. He landed 13 of 20 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Nicolau landed 40% of his significant strikes by landing 2 of 5. Of all the significant strikes, he was 1 of 4 pointed at the head. 23% of the significant strikes connected on by Royval and 100% of them connected on by Nicolau were tallied at a distance.

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In the last bout for Alex Perez, he squared up with Muhammad Mokaev and walked away with a loss by unanimous decision in round 3. Mokaev connected on 65% of his significant strikes at distance and Perez landed 63% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Perez landed 34% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 30 of 87. He landed 22 of 73 significant strikes directed at the head. Mokaev connected on 47 of 104 significant strikes in that fight. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he connected on 34 of 85 to the head. Regarding the strikes he fired off in this contest, Mokaev connected on 56 of 119 while Perez was 47 of 114 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights to watch

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Ryan Spann squares up against Bogdan Guskov. Spann has a record of 21-9-0. The 32-year-old weighs 205 lbs and stands in at 6'5". The orthodox fighter stretches 79". Guskov measures in at 6'3" and weighs 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his career total of 15-3-0. The 31-year-old has a wingspan of 76". In terms of takedowns, Ryan Spann takes his opponents to the canvas 1.29 times per 3 rds while Bogdan Guskov gets a takedown 0.50 times per 15 minutes. Regarding striking, Spann tags his opponents 3.42 strikes/min and connecting on 40% of the strikes that he throws. The other fighter in this bout is Bogdan Guskov, who is connecting on 33% of the strikes he has attempted and connects on 2.43 per min.

Another must see fight on the night is when Maheshate Hayisaer is set to encounter Gabriel Benitez. Benitez looks to add a win to his career total of 23-12-0. The 35-year-old will fight at 155 lbs and comes in at 5'8". The southpaw fighter has a reach of 71". Hayisaer stands 6'0" and steps on the scale at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout with a mark of 9-3-0. The 24-year-old has a wingspan of 71". In terms of grappling, Gabriel Benitez is preventing 55% of the takedowns his opponents try and is finishing his takedowns on 50% of his attempts. Hayisaer is finishing his takedown tries on 15% of the attempts he tries and prevents 45% of the takedowns his opponents try. With regard to striking, Benitez is taking 4.26 strikes/minute while he connects on 4.92 strikes per min. Hayisaer, moreover, is absorbing 4.86 strikes/minute and is dealing 2.91 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Matheus Nicolau (-192)

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