Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Iasmin Lucindo Pick, 5/4/2024 Predictions UFC 301 Odds

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Iasmin Lucindo

UFC 301

Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Saturday, May 4, 2024

Karolina Kowalkiewicz will take on Iasmin Lucindo at UFC 301 on Saturday, May 4, 2024. The opening line has Kowalkiewicz at +320 while Lucindo is priced at -410.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz will be looking to add a victory to her career total of 16-7-0. The 38-year-old records a weight of 115 lbs and measures in at 5'3". The orthodox fighter reaches 64". Iasmin Lucindo stands in at 5'3" and is weighing in at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a career record of 15-5-0. The 22-year-old stretches 66". When talking about significant strikes, Karolina Kowalkiewicz is connecting on 5.92 per minute while Iasmin Lucindo is connecting on 3.33 significant strikes per minute. Kowalkiewicz lands 43% of the significant strikes she tries while Lucindo lands 39%. When it comes to defending in the cage, Kowalkiewicz takes 5.55 significant strikes per minute while Lucindo absorbs 3.23. Kowalkiewicz also stops 59% of the significant strikes her opponents throw at her while Lucindo is able to thwart 67% of the shots thrown in her direction.

In the grappling category, Karolina Kowalkiewicz is not as effective of a grappler as she is able to score a takedown 0.36 times per 15 min. Kowalkiewicz is getting her opponent to the mat on 26% of her tries and is defending 74% of the takedowns her opponents try. Lucindo is taking her opponents to the canvas on 66% of the takedowns she tries and stopping 66% of the attempts against her. Regarding going for the sub, Kowalkiewicz is less apt at going for the finish by attempting 0.2 subs per 3 rounds while Lucindo attempts 0.4 subs per 15 minutes.

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In her previous bout, Karolina Kowalkiewicz fought Diana Belbita and took home the victory via unanimous decision in round 3. Belbita landed 108 of 270 total strikes that she threw in that fight. Kowalkiewicz finished this fight landing 155 of 283 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Belbita landed 99 of 261, which means her percentage was 37%. She ended up landing 57 of 199 significant strikes aimed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Kowalkiewicz landed 52% of her significant strikes by connecting on 141 of 267. Of those significant strikes, she landed 94 of 203 aimed at the head. 85% of the significant strikes connected on by Belbita and 87% of them landed by Kowalkiewicz were tallied at a distance.

In the last bout for Iasmin Lucindo, she battled Polyana Viana and ended up getting the victory by an arm triangle in round 2. Viana ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes she attempted at distance and Lucindo connected on 90% of her significant strikes at distance. Lucindo ended up connecting on 41% of the significant strikes she attempted by landing 10 of 24. She connected on 5 of 18 significant strikes to the head. Viana ended up connecting on 10 of 25 significant strikes in that fight. Of those significant strikes, she connected on 2 of 15 aimed at the head. Regarding total strikes attempted in that contest, Viana ended up landing 41 of 68 while Lucindo ended up landing 31 of 48 of the strikes she threw in total.

Other bouts to keep an eye on

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Dione Barbosa fights Ernesta Kareckaite. Barbosa steps into the cage with a mark of 6-2-0. The 31-year-old will fight at 125 lbs and comes in at 5'6". The orthodox fighter reaches 66". Kareckaite stands in at 5'9" and steps on the scale at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to her career record of 5-0-1. The 25-year-old reaches 71". Regarding grappling, Dione Barbosa is able to score a takedown 3.27 times per 3 rds while Ernesta Kareckaite takes her opponents to the mat 1.00 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Barbosa connects for an average of 0.87 strikes/min and landing 50% of her attempted strikes. On the other side we have Ernesta Kareckaite, who lands 45% of the strikes she has attempted and lands 12.27 per minute.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Steve Erceg is set to go up against Alexandre Pantoja. Pantoja holds a mark of 27-5-0. The 34-year-old weighs in at 125 lbs and comes in at 5'5". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 67". Erceg comes in at 5'8" and weighs in at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a record of 12-1-0. The 28-year-old has a reach of 68". Concerning wrestling, Alexandre Pantoja is preventing 67% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is taking his opponents to the canvas on 48% of the times he tries. Erceg is taking his opponents to the mat on 30% of his tries and prevents 77% of all takedown attempts. In the category of striking, Pantoja is absorbing 3.90 strikes/min and he connects on 4.32 per min. Erceg, notwithstanding, takes 3.64 strikes/minute and is connecting on 4.57 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+320)

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