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Karl Williams vs Justin Tafa Pick, 3/23/2024 Predictions UFC Vegas 89 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 3/19/2024

Karl Williams vs Justin Tafa

UFC Vegas 89

UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, March 23, 2024

Karl Williams will take on Justin Tafa at UFC Vegas 89 on Saturday, March 23, 2024. The opening line has Williams priced at -175 while Tafa is at +145.

Karl Williams has a career record of 9-1-0. The 34-year-old will fight at 235 lbs and stands in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter reaches 79". Justin "Bad Man" Tafa stands 6'0" and steps on the scale at 264 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the Octagon holding a record of 7-3-0 (1 NC). The 30-year-old has a wingspan of 74". Regarding significant strikes, Karl Williams is landing 2.93 per minute and Justin Tafa connects on 5.13 significant strikes per minute. Williams lands 49% of the significant strikes he attempts and Tafa connects on 55%. Regarding defending in the cage, Williams absorbs 1.80 significant strikes per minute while "Bad Man" allows 5.93. Williams also prevents 62% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt while Tafa defends against 49% of the shots thrown.

ufc picks Karl Williams ufc predictions best bet odds

 

UFC Vegas 89 Karl Williams Justin Tafa
Opening Odds -175 +145
Record 9-1-0 7-3-0 (1 NC)
Average Fight Time 15:00 4:52
Height 6'3" 6'0"
Weight 235 lbs 264 lbs
Reach 79" 74"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 2.93 5.13
Striking Accuracy 49% 55%

 

In terms of takedowns, Karl Williams is the more productive grappler as he takes his opponents down 4.00 times per 15 minutes. Williams is taking his opponents to the canvas on 46% of the times he tries and stopping 85% of all takedown tries against him. Tafa is finishing his takedown attempts on 15% of his takedown attempts and is stopping 85% of the attempts against him. When it comes to subbing opponents, Williams is the more skilled of the two fighters by trying 0.6 subs per 15 min while Tafa attempts 0.3 subs per 15 minutes.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Karl Williams faced Chase Sherman and ended up getting the win by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Sherman landed 64 of 170 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Williams ended the night having landed 85 of 191 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Sherman landed 54 of 158, which gave him a percentage of 34%. He finished the fight landing 26 of 124 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Williams landed 42% of his significant strikes by connecting on 70 of 165. Of all the significant strikes, he was 53 of 147 pointed at the head. 85% of the significant strikes connected on by Sherman and 92% of them connected on by Williams were thrown at a distance.

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In the last fight for Justin Tafa, he faced off with Austen Lane and got a win for the night by way of a punch to the head in round 1. Lane ended up landing 100% of his significant strikes at distance and Tafa landed 54% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Tafa landed 78% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 11 of 14. He landed 9 of 11 significant strikes aimed at the head. Lane ended up landing 7 of 14 significant strikes in that fight. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he connected on 3 of 9 aimed at the head. Discussing total strikes that he let go in that contest, Lane connected on 7 of 15 while Tafa was 11 of 14 total strikes.

Other fights on the card to keep an eye on

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Edmen Shahbazyan faces off against AJ Dobson. Shahbazyan walks into the Octagon with a mark of 12-4-0. The 26-year-old steps on the scale at 185 lbs and measures 6'2". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 75". Dobson comes in at 6'1" and will fight at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a record of 7-2-0 (1 NC). The 32-year-old has a wingspan of 76". Regarding grappling, Edmen Shahbazyan is able to score a takedown 2.17 times per 3 rounds and AJ Dobson takes his opponents down 1.82 times per 3 rounds. When talking about striking, Shahbazyan is connecting on 3.46 strikes per minute and connects on 51% of his attempted strikes. Joining him in the Octagon is AJ Dobson, who is connecting on 47% of his attempted strikes and connects for an average of 4.38 per minute.

One more can't miss bout is when Cameron Saaiman is set to battle Payton Talbott. Talbott will be looking to add a victory to his career record of 7-0-0. The 25-year-old is weighing in at 135 lbs and measures 5'10". The switch fighter reaches 70". Saaiman stands 5'8" and tips the scales at 135 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a win to his record of 9-1-0. The 23-year-old reaches 67". Concerning wrestling, Payton Talbott is stopping 88% of his opponents' takedown tries and is getting his opponent to the mat on 15% of his attempts. Saaiman is finishing his takedowns on 36% of the tries he takes and is able to curb 44% of all takedown attempts. Concerning striking, Talbott is absorbing 3.12 strikes per minute and he deals 6.66 strikes per minute. Saaiman, in contrast, is taking 3.24 strikes per minute and is landing 5.28 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Karl Williams (-175)

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