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Julio Arce vs Herbert Burns Pick, 3/30/2024 Predictions UFC Atlantic City Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 3/25/2024

Julio Arce vs Herbert Burns

UFC Atlantic City

Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City

Saturday, March 30, 2024

Julio Arce will take on Herbert Burns at UFC Atlantic City on Saturday, March 30, 2024. The opening moneyline has Arce at -455 while Burns is priced at +350.

Julio Arce looks to add a victory to his total of 18-6-0. The 34-year-old weighs 145 lbs and stands in at 5'7". The southpaw fighter has an arm span of 70". Herbert "The Blaze" Burns measures 5'9" and records a weight of 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career record of 11-4-0. The 36-year-old has a wingspan of 73". Regarding significant strikes, Julio Arce lands 4.38 per minute and Herbert Burns is landing 1.61 significant strikes per min. Arce lands 36% of the significant strikes he attempts while Burns lands 51%. Concerning their defense in the Octagon, Arce allows 3.10 significant strikes per min and "The Blaze" takes 4.74. Arce also stops 68% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way and Burns is able to deflect 30% of the shots thrown his way.

ufc picks Julio Arce ufc predictions best bet odds

 

UFC Atlantic City Julio Arce Herbert Burns
Opening Odds -455 +350
Record 18-6-0 11-4-0
Average Fight Time 12:16 4:36
Height 5'7" 5'9"
Weight 145 lbs 145 lbs
Reach 70" 73"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.38 1.61
Striking Accuracy 36% 51%

 

In terms of grappling, Julio Arce is not as effective of a wrestler as he takes his opponents to the mat 0.49 times per 3 rds. Arce is finishing his takedown attempts on 30% of the times he tries and thwarting 95% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Burns is getting his opponent to the mat on 75% of the takedowns he tries and stopping 60% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. In terms of submissions, Arce is less likely to go for the finish by attempting 0.4 subs per 15 minutes while Burns goes for 3.3 subs per 3 rounds.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Julio Arce faced Montel Jackson and wound up taking the loss via unanimous decision in round 3. Jackson landed 64 of 127 total strikes attempted in that contest. Arce walked away from this fight having landed 44 of 156 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Jackson ended up landing 48 of 106, which gave him a percentage of 45%. He landed 39 of 95 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Arce ended up landing 20% of his significant strikes by landing 26 of 126. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he was 13 of 102 to the head. 68% of the significant strikes connected on by Jackson and 96% of them connected on by Arce were tallied at a distance.

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In the last fight for Herbert Burns, he went up against Bill Algeo and ended up taking the loss by a knee injury to Burns in round 2. Algeo landed 7% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Burns ended up landing 10% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Burns landed 83% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 10 of 12. He connected on 6 of 8 significant strikes to the head. Algeo landed 28 of 36 significant strikes in that contest. Of those significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 21 of 28 to the head. When discussing total strikes thrown in that contest, Algeo was 81 of 104 and Burns landed 18 of 25 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights to watch

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Dennis Buzukja squares up against Connor Matthews. Buzukja looks to add a win to his career record of 11-4-0. The 26-year-old records a weight of 145 lbs and stands in at 5'9". The switch fighter has an arm span of 70". Matthews comes in at 5'8" and records a weight of 145 lbs. The switch fighter looks to add a victory to his career record of 7-1-0. The 31-year-old stretches 71". Regarding grappling, Dennis Buzukja is able to score a takedown 0.98 times per 15 min and Connor Matthews takes his opponents to the mat 3.50 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Buzukja is landing 3.30 strikes per min and is landing 43% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side we have Connor Matthews, who tags his opponent on 44% of the strikes he has thrown and lands 5.13 per min.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Anton Turkalj is set to encounter Ibo Aslan. Aslan walks into the cage holding a record of 12-1-0. The 27-year-old will fight at 205 lbs and stands 6'3". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 77". Turkalj measures 6'4" and records a weight of 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his career total of 8-3-0. The 27-year-old has a wingspan of 78". Regarding wrestling, Ibo Aslan is able to defend against 15% of his opponents' takedown tries and is scoring a takedown on 15% of the times he tries. Turkalj is finishing his takedown tries on 51% of the tries he takes and is able to stop 16% of the takedowns his opponents try. In the category of striking, Aslan takes 3.38 strikes/minute and he deals 8.87 per min. Turkalj, in contrast, is taking 2.48 strikes/min and connects on 1.72 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Julio Arce (-455)

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