Jose Aldo vs Mario Bautista Pick, 10/5/2024 Predictions UFC 307 Odds

by Tony Sink - 10/1/2024

Jose Aldo vs Mario Bautista

UFC 307

Delta Center in Salt Lake City

Saturday, October 5, 2024

Jose Aldo will battle Mario Bautista at UFC 307 on Saturday, October 5, 2024. The moneyline has Aldo at +120 while Bautista is coming in at -142.

Jose Aldo will be looking to add a win to his career record of 32-8-0. The 38-year-old weighs in at 135 lbs. and stands in at 5' 7". The orthodox fighter stretches 70". Mario Bautista measures in at 5' 9" and records a weight of 135 lbs.. The switch fighter walks into the cage with a mark of 14-2-0. The 31-year-old extends his reach 69". Regarding significant strikes, Jose Aldo lands 3.63 per minute while Mario Bautista is landing 5.69 significant strikes per minute. Aldo is connecting on 46% of the significant strikes he throws while Bautista is connecting on 48%. Concerning their defense in the cage, Aldo absorbs 3.73 significant strikes per minute while Bautista allows 3.99. Aldo also deflects 60% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him and Bautista is able to stop 53% of the shots thrown.

ufc picks Jose Aldo ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC 307	Jose Aldo	Mario Bautista
Opening Odds	+120	-142
Record	32-8-0	14-2-0
Average Fight Time	14:14	8:40
Height	5' 7"	5' 9"
Weight	135 lbs.	135 lbs.
Reach	70"	69"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.63	5.69
Striking Accuracy	46%	48%

In the category of takedowns, Jose Aldo is not as effective of a wrestler as he gets a takedown 0.51 times per 3 rounds. Aldo is finishing his takedown attempts on 53% of his tries and is defending 91% of all takedown attempts. Bautista is getting his opponent to the mat on 44% of his takedown attempts and is defending 66% of the attempts against him. Regarding submissions, Aldo is the lesser skilled fighter by attempting 0.1 submissions per 3 rds while Bautista attempts 1.0 submission per 3 rds.

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In his last bout, Jose Aldo fought Jonathan Martinez and took home the win by unanimous decision in round 3. Martinez ended up landing 80 of 151 of the strikes he threw in total in this fight. Aldo ended the night having landed 101 of 174 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Martinez ended up landing 52 of 118, which gave him a percentage of 44%. He ended up landing 36 of 96 significant strikes to the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Aldo ended up landing 55% of his significant strikes by landing 77 of 139. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he connected on 41 of 96 to the head. 96% of the significant strikes connected on by Martinez and 90% of them landed by Aldo were done at distance.

In the last bout for Mario Bautista, he squared up with Ricky Simon and took home the victory via unanimous decision in round 3. Simon landed 97% of his significant strikes at distance while Bautista landed 98% of his significant strikes at distance. Bautista connected on 41% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 112 of 270. He ended up landing 76 of 219 significant strikes directed at the head. Simon connected on 45 of 108 significant strikes in that battle. Of those significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 33 of 95 directed at the head. Relating to total strikes attempted in that contest, Simon ended up connecting on 52 of 115 and Bautista ended up connecting on 118 of 276 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other fights on the card to watch out for

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Roman Dolidze squares up in the Octagon against Kevin Holland. Dolidze steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 13-3-0. The 36-year-old will fight at 185 lbs. and stands 6' 2". The orthodox fighter reaches 76". Holland stands 6' 3" and weighs in at 185 lbs.. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a mark of 26-11-0 (1 NC). The 31-year-old stretches 81". In terms of takedowns, Roman Dolidze takes his opponents down 1.26 times per 15 min while Kevin Holland scores a takedown 0.84 times per 15 minutes. When talking about striking, Dolidze connects for an average of 3.13 strikes/min and landing 42% of his attempted strikes. On the other side of the cage we have Kevin Holland, who is landing 49% of the strikes he has attempted and lands 4.25 per minute.

Another bout to watch is when Joaquin Buckley is set to clash with Stephen Thompson. Thompson steps into the Octagon with a mark of 17-7-1. The 41-year-old is fighting at 170 lbs. and measures in at 6' 0". The orthodox fighter stretches 75". Buckley measures in at 5' 10" and tips the scales at 170 lbs.. The southpaw fighter walks into the Octagon with a mark of 19-6-0. The 30-year-old stretches 76". In the category of takedowns, Stephen Thompson is able to curb 65% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is finishing his takedown attempts on 41% of his attempts. Buckley is taking his opponents to the mat on 44% of the tries he takes and is able to deflect 69% of all takedown tries against him. In the category of striking, Thompson is absorbing 3.03 strikes per min and he dishes out 4.11 per minute. Buckley, in contrast, absorbs 3.12 strikes/minute and is landing 4.25 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Mario Bautista (-142)

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Jose Aldo vs Mario Bautista Pick, 10/5/2024 Predictions UFC 307 Odds

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