Jonathan Martinez vs Jose Aldo Pick, 5/4/2024 Predictions UFC 301 Odds

by Tony Sink - 5/3/2024

Jonathan Martinez vs Jose Aldo

UFC 301

Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Saturday, May 4, 2024

Jonathan Martinez will face off with Jose Aldo at UFC 301 on Saturday, May 4, 2024. The odds have Martinez priced at -148 while Aldo is coming in at +124.

Jonathan "Dragon" Martinez steps into the cage holding a record of 19-4-0. The 30-year-old will fight at 135 lbs and measures in at 5'8". The southpaw fighter extends his reach 70". Jose Aldo stands in at 5'7" and steps on the scale at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his career total of 31-8-0. The 37-year-old stretches 70". When talking about significant strikes, Jonathan Martinez is landing 4.64 per min and Jose Aldo is connecting on 3.57 significant strikes per minute. Martinez is connecting on 50% of the significant strikes he tries and Aldo lands 46%. When it comes to defending in the cage, "Dragon" absorbs 3.76 significant strikes per min while Aldo allows 3.74. Martinez also defends against 58% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way while Aldo deflects 60% of them.

ufc picks Jonathan Martinez ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC 301	Jonathan Martinez	Jose Aldo
Opening Odds	-148	+124
Record	19-4-0	31-8-0
Average Fight Time	13:03	14:12
Height	5'8"	5'7"
Weight	135 lbs	135 lbs
Reach	70"	70"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.64	3.57
Striking Accuracy	50%	46%

In terms of wrestling, Jonathan Martinez is not as efficient of a grappler as he is able to score a takedown 0.44 times per 3 rds. Martinez is finishing his takedown attempts on 41% of the times he tries and stopping 69% of all takedown attempts. Aldo is taking his opponents to the canvas on 54% of his takedown attempts and thwarting 91% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Martinez is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by trying 0.1 submissions per 15 minutes while Aldo looks to get 0.4 submissions per 15 min.

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The last time he fought, Jonathan Martinez faced Adrian Yanez and ended up getting the victory by kicks to the leg in round 2. Yanez landed 20 of 73 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Martinez finished this fight landing 36 of 60 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Yanez ended up landing 20 of 72, which gave him a rate of 27%. He ended up landing 9 of 59 significant strikes directed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Martinez landed 62% of his significant strikes by connecting on 36 of 58. Of all the significant strikes, he was 7 of 15 aimed at the head. 85% of the significant strikes connected on by Yanez and 100% of them landed by Martinez were done at distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Jose Aldo, he went up against Merab Dvalishvili and took a loss on the night via unanimous decision in round 3. Dvalishvili landed 75% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Aldo ended up connecting on 92% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Aldo ended up landing 56% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 38 of 67. He ended up landing 11 of 35 significant strikes directed at the head. Dvalishvili landed 57 of 147 significant strikes in that fight. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 20 of 102 aimed at the head. In regard to total strikes that he threw in that fight, Dvalishvili ended up connecting on 135 of 230 while Aldo ended up connecting on 59 of 92 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other fights to watch out for

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Anthony Smith faces off with Vitor Petrino. Smith holds a career mark of 37-19-0. The 35-year-old is fighting at 205 lbs and comes in at 6'4". The orthodox fighter stretches 76". Petrino measures in at 6'2" and records a weight of 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his record of 11-0-0. The 26-year-old has a wingspan of 77". In terms of takedowns, Anthony Smith is averaging a takedown 0.49 times per 15 minutes while Vitor Petrino scores a takedown 3.86 times per 15 minutes. In the striking category, Smith lands 3.21 strikes per minute and connects on 48% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side of the cage we have Vitor Petrino, who is connecting on 45% of his attempted strikes and connects on 2.74 per minute.

One more can't miss bout is when Caio Borralho is set to square up against Paul Craig. Craig looks to add a victory to his career total of 17-7-1. The 36-year-old is fighting at 185 lbs and comes in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 76". Borralho measures in at 5'10" and is weighing in at 185 lbs. The southpaw fighter comes into this bout with a mark of 15-1-0 (1 NC). The 31-year-old reaches 75". Concerning grappling, Paul Craig is thwarting 37% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is taking his opponents to the canvas on 22% of his attempts. Borralho is finishing his takedown tries on 63% of the attempts he tries and is able to stop 57% of all takedown attempts. Concerning striking, Craig is taking 2.86 strikes per minute while he is dishing out 2.42 strikes per minute. Borralho, on the other side, is absorbing 1.98 strikes/minute and dishes out 2.73 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Jose Aldo (+124)

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Jonathan Martinez vs Jose Aldo Pick, 5/4/2024 Predictions UFC 301 Odds

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