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Jesus Aguilar vs Mateus Mendonca Pick, 2/24/2024 Predictions UFC Mexico City Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 2/19/2024

Jesus Aguilar vs Mateus Mendonca

UFC Mexico City

Mexico City Arena

Saturday, February 24, 2024

Jesus Aguilar will enter the Octagon against Mateus Mendonca at UFC Mexico City on Saturday, February 24, 2024. The moneyline has Aguilar priced at +120 while Mendonca is coming in at -142.

Jesus Aguilar comes into this fight with a mark of 9-2-0. The 27-year-old is weighing in at 125 lbs and comes in at 5'4". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 62". Mateus "Bocao" Mendonca stands 5'6" and will fight at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his total of 10-2-0. The 25-year-old extends his reach 71". When talking about significant strikes, Jesus Aguilar is landing 1.69 per minute and Mateus Mendonca is landing 2.00 significant strikes per minute. Aguilar is landing 49% of the significant strikes he throws while Mendonca is landing 38%. Regarding defense, Aguilar takes 1.03 significant strikes per minute while "Bocao" absorbs 6.25. Aguilar also defends against 63% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way and Mendonca is able to defend against 26% of the shots thrown.

ufc picks Jesus Aguilar ufc predictions best bet odds

 

UFC Mexico City Jesus Aguilar Mateus Mendonca
Opening Odds +120 -142
Record 9-2-0 10-2-0
Average Fight Time 5:31 6:49
Height 5'4" 5'6"
Weight 125 lbs 125 lbs
Reach 62" 71"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 1.69 2.00
Striking Accuracy 49% 38%

 

In the wrestling category, Jesus Aguilar is the more capable grappler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 2.72 times per 15 minutes. Aguilar is taking his opponents to the canvas on 37% of the times he tries and defending 0% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Mendonca is taking his opponents to the mat on 14% of his takedown attempts and defending 40% of the attempts against him. Regarding submissions, Aguilar is the more skilled fighter by trying 1.8 subs per 15 min while Mendonca goes for 0.5 subs per 3 rds.

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The last time he fought, Jesus Aguilar went up against Shannon Ross and wound up getting the victory by way of a punch to the head in round 1. Ross ended up landing 2 of 3 of the strikes he threw in total in this fight. Aguilar finished this fight landing 2 of 3 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Ross ended up landing 2 of 3, which gave him a percentage of 66%. He landed 1 of 2 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Aguilar ended up landing 66% of his significant strikes by landing 2 of 3. Out of those significant strikes, he was 1 of 1 pointed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes connected on by Ross and 100% of them connected on by Aguilar were thrown at a distance.

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In the last Octagon appearance for Mateus Mendonca, he fought Nate Maness and wound up walking away in defeat by a punch to the head in round 1. Maness ended up landing 3% of the significant strikes he took from distance while Mendonca connected on 33% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Mendonca ended up connecting on 42% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 3 of 7. He ended up connecting on 0 of 3 significant strikes to the head. Maness connected on 29 of 35 significant strikes in that fight. Of those significant strikes, he landed 26 of 31 to the head. Regarding total strikes that he let go, Maness landed 103 of 114 while Mendonca landed 9 of 16 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts on the card to watch out for

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Edgar Chairez squares up with Daniel Lacerda. Chairez steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 10-5-0 (1 NC). The 28-year-old weighs in at 125 lbs and stands 5'7". The orthodox fighter stretches 71". Lacerda stands in at 5'6" and steps on the scale at 125 lbs. The switch fighter looks to add a win to his career total of 11-5-0 (1 NC). The 27-year-old has a wingspan of 70". When it comes to grappling, Edgar Chairez is averaging a takedown 0.00 times per 15 minutes while Daniel Lacerda gets a takedown 1.91 times per 15 minutes. Regarding striking, Chairez tags his opponents 2.60 strikes per min and connecting on 48% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side of the cage you've got Daniel Lacerda, who lands 47% of the strikes he has attempted and is connecting on 4.16 per min.

One more can't miss bout is when Fares Ziam is set to clash with Claudio Puelles. Puelles steps into the Octagon with a record of 13-3-0. The 27-year-old steps on the scale at 155 lbs and comes in at 5'10". The southpaw fighter stretches 72". Ziam stands in at 6'1" and will fight at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his total of 14-4-0. The 26-year-old stretches 75". Regarding wrestling, Claudio Puelles curbs 60% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is taking his opponents to the mat on 30% of his attempts. Ziam is finishing his takedowns on 23% of the attempts he tries and defends against 75% of the takedowns his opponents try. With regard to striking, Puelles absorbs 2.93 strikes per min while he is connecting on 1.82 strikes per min. Ziam, notwithstanding, takes 2.01 strikes/minute and is dishing out 2.82 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Jesus Aguilar (+120)

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