Derrick Lewis vs Rodrigo Nascimento Pick, 5/11/2024 Predictions UFC St. Louis Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 5/8/2024

Derrick Lewis vs Rodrigo Nascimento

UFC St. Louis

Enterprise Center in St. Louis, MO

Saturday, May 11, 2024

Derrick Lewis will enter the Octagon against Rodrigo Nascimento at UFC St. Louis on Saturday, May 11, 2024. The opener has Lewis coming in at -148 while Nascimento is at +124.

Derrick "The Black Beast" Lewis comes into this bout holding a record of 27-12-0 (1 NC). The 39-year-old weighs in at 260 lbs and comes in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter stretches 79". Rodrigo "Ze Colmeia" Nascimento stands in at 6'2" and will fight at 246 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a record of 11-1-0 (1 NC). The 31-year-old stretches 80". When talking about significant strikes, Derrick Lewis is connecting on 2.43 per min and Rodrigo Nascimento connects on 4.31 significant strikes per min. Lewis is connecting on 50% of the significant strikes he tries while Nascimento lands 48%. In terms of defending themselves, "The Black Beast" absorbs 2.48 significant strikes per minute and "Ze Colmeia" takes 4.76. Lewis also stops 40% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt and Nascimento is able to deflect 43% of the shots thrown.

ufc picks Derrick Lewis ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC St. Louis	Derrick Lewis	Rodrigo Nascimento
Opening Odds	-148	+124
Record	27-12-0 (1 NC)	11-1-0 (1 NC)
Average Fight Time	9:05	8:56
Height	6'3"	6'2"
Weight	260 lbs	246 lbs
Reach	79"	80"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	2.43	4.31
Striking Accuracy	50%	48%

Concerning grappling, Derrick Lewis is the lesser skilled wrestler as he scores a takedown 0.53 times per 15 min. Lewis is scoring a takedown on 26% of his tries and is defending 53% of the attempts against him. Nascimento is taking his opponents down on 33% of his takedown tries and stopping 77% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. In terms of subbing the opposition, Lewis is less apt at going for the finish by going for 0.3 finishes per 15 minutes while Nascimento attempts 0.7 finishes per 3 rds.

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The last time he fought, Derrick Lewis went up against Jailton Almeida and ended up taking the loss by unanimous decision in round 5. Almeida ended up landing 120 of 153 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Lewis walked away from this fight having landed 28 of 54 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Almeida landed 38 of 56, giving him a percentage of 67%. He finished the fight landing 32 of 48 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side, Lewis landed 51% of his significant strikes by sticking 20 of 39. Of all the significant strikes, he was 17 of 33 aimed at the head. 13% of the significant strikes landed by Almeida and 10% of them landed by Lewis were tallied at distance.

In the last fight for Rodrigo Nascimento, he fought Don'Tale Mayes and got a win for the night by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Mayes connected on 69% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Nascimento landed 82% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Nascimento landed 45% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 70 of 154. He connected on 51 of 132 significant strikes aimed at the head. Mayes connected on 79 of 159 significant strikes in that fight. Of those significant strikes, he landed 39 of 103 directed at the head. In relation to total strikes that he let go in that contest, Mayes ended up landing 105 of 190 and Nascimento ended up connecting on 91 of 180 total strikes.

Other fights to keep an eye on

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Joaquin Buckley opposes Nursulton Ruziboev. Buckley holds a record of 18-6-0. The 30-year-old tips the scales at 170 lbs and measures in at 5'10". The southpaw fighter has a wingspan of 76". Ruziboev stands 6'5" and records a weight of 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a record of 34-8-2 (2 NC). The 30-year-old extends his reach 76". When it comes to grappling, Joaquin Buckley is able to score a takedown 1.40 times per 3 rds while Nursulton Ruziboev is able to score a takedown 3.27 times per 15 min. In the striking category, Buckley is landing 4.06 strikes per min and is landing 34% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side of the cage you've got Nursulton Ruziboev, who connects on 43% of the strikes he has thrown and is landing 3.93 per minute.

If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Carlos Ulberg is set to go up against Alonzo Menifield. Menifield has a career record of 15-3-1. The 36-year-old steps on the scale at 205 lbs and measures in at 6'0". The orthodox fighter stretches 76". Ulberg stands in at 6'4" and weighs in at 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon holding a record of 10-1-0. The 33-year-old has a reach of 77". In terms of grappling, Alonzo Menifield prevents 75% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is finishing his takedowns on 33% of his attempts. Ulberg is taking his opponents to the mat on 75% of his tries and defends against 75% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. With reference to striking, Menifield absorbs 3.51 strikes per minute and he deals 3.92 per minute. Ulberg, on the other side, absorbs 3.59 strikes per minute and deals 7.29 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Derrick Lewis (-148)

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Derrick Lewis vs Rodrigo Nascimento Pick, 5/11/2024 Predictions UFC St. Louis Odds

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