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Cub Swanson vs Andre Fili Pick, 6/29/2024 Predictions UFC 303 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 6/25/2024

Cub Swanson vs Andre Fili

UFC 303

Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Saturday, June 29, 2024

Cub Swanson will take on Andre Fili at UFC 303 on Saturday, June 29, 2024. The opening line has Swanson coming in at +190 while Fili is priced at -230.

Cub Swanson steps into the cage with a mark of 29-13-0. The 40-year-old is fighting at 145 lbs and measures 5'8". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 70". Andre "Touchy" Fili measures 5'11" and will fight at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his career total of 23-11-0 (1 NC). The 33-year-old extends his reach 74". Regarding significant strikes, Cub Swanson is connecting on 4.70 per minute and Andre Fili is connecting on 3.85 significant strikes per minute. Swanson connects on 50% of the significant strikes he attempts and Fili is connecting on 37%. When it comes to defending themselves, Swanson absorbs 3.84 significant strikes per min while "Touchy" allows 4.11. Swanson also defends 59% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way and Fili is able to thwart 51% of the shots thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Cub Swanson ufc predictions best bet odds

 

UFC 303 Cub Swanson Andre Fili
Opening Odds +190 -230
Record 29-13-0 23-11-0 (1 NC)
Average Fight Time 11:34 10:25
Height 5'8" 5'11"
Weight 145 lbs 145 lbs
Reach 70" 74"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.70 3.85
Striking Accuracy 50% 37%

Regarding takedowns, Cub Swanson is not as efficient of a grappler as he is able to score a takedown 1.09 times per 3 rds. Swanson is getting his opponent to the mat on 52% of his tries and is stopping 61% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Fili is taking his opponents to the mat on 47% of his takedown tries and is stopping 69% of the tries against him. In terms of submission attempts, Swanson is the more capable fighter by trying 0.4 subs per 3 rounds while Fili attempts 0.3 subs per 3 rounds.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Cub Swanson went up against Hakeem Dawodu and got a win for the night via unanimous decision in round 3. Dawodu ended up landing 129 of 224 of the strikes he threw in total in this fight. Swanson finished this fight landing 107 of 195 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Dawodu ended up landing 95 of 176, which gave him a percentage of 53%. He ended up landing 41 of 104 significant strikes to the head. On the other side, Swanson ended up landing 49% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 77 of 156. Out of those significant strikes, he connected on 41 of 112 to the head. 83% of the significant strikes connected on by Dawodu and 76% of them landed by Swanson were done at a distance.

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In the last fight for Andre Fili, he fought Dan Ige and wound up losing the fight via a punch to the head in round 1. Ige ended up landing 90% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Fili ended up landing 100% of his significant strikes at distance. Fili connected on 24% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 8 of 33. He connected on 7 of 28 significant strikes directed at the head. Ige ended up connecting on 11 of 19 significant strikes in that fight. Out of those significant strikes, he ended up landing 4 of 11 aimed at the head. In terms of total strikes that he let go in that contest, Ige landed 11 of 19 while Fili was 8 of 33 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other fights on the card to keep an eye on

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Charles Jourdain squares up with Jean Silva. Jourdain steps into the cage holding a mark of 15-7-1. The 28-year-old is fighting at 145 lbs and stands in at 5'9". The switch fighter has a reach of 69". Silva measures in at 5'7" and weighs in at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his record of 12-2-0. The 27-year-old has a wingspan of 69". In the grappling category, Charles Jourdain scores a takedown 0.09 times per 3 rds while Jean Silva is averaging a takedown 1.56 times per 3 rds. When talking about striking, Jourdain lands an average of 5.56 strikes/min and lands 48% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side we have Jean Silva, who tags his opponent on 52% of the strikes that he throws and connects on 5.83 per minute.

Another bout to watch is when Yanis Ghemmouri is set to battle Payton Talbott. Talbott looks to add a victory to his career total of 8-0-0. The 25-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and stands 5'10". The switch fighter reaches 70". Ghemmouri comes in at 5'9" and will fight at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 12-2-0. The 29-year-old has an arm span of 69". When it comes to takedowns, Payton Talbott is able to curb 90% of his opponents' takedown tries and is scoring a takedown on 15% of the times he tries. Ghemmouri is taking his opponents down on 15% of the tries he takes and deflects 15% of all takedown attempts. In the matter of striking, Talbott is absorbing 3.58 strikes per minute while he is connecting on 8.05 strikes per min. Ghemmouri, at the same time, is absorbing 4.22 strikes/min and connects on 2.27 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Andre Fili (-230)

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