Colby Covington vs Joaquin Buckley Pick, 12/14/2024 Predictions UFC Tampa Odds

Colby Covington vs Joaquin Buckley

UFC Tampa

Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL

Saturday, December 14, 2024

Colby Covington will enter the Octagon against Joaquin Buckley at UFC Tampa on Saturday, December 14, 2024. The opening moneyline has Covington at +225 while Buckley is coming in at -278.

Colby "Chaos" Covington walks into the cage holding a mark of 17-4-0. The 36-year-old will fight at 170 lbs and measures in at 5'11". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 72". Joaquin "New Mansa" Buckley measures 5'10" and records a weight of 170 lbs. The southpaw fighter has a mark of 20-6-0. The 30-year-old stretches 76". Concerning significant strikes, Colby Covington connects on 3.88 per min while Joaquin Buckley connects on 4.13 significant strikes per min. Covington is landing 38% of the significant strikes he tries while Buckley is connecting on 36%. Regarding defending in the cage, "Chaos" absorbs 2.98 significant strikes per min while "New Mansa" allows 3.20. Covington also prevents 55% of the significant strikes that are directed at him and Buckley curbs 57% of the shots thrown in his direction.

Regarding grappling, Colby Covington is the more effective grappler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 3.79 times per 3 rds. Covington is getting his opponent to the mat on 44% of the times he tries and is defending 67% of the attempts against him. Buckley is getting his opponent to the mat on 46% of his takedown tries and stuffing 69% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Covington is less apt at going for the finish by attempting 0.2 subs per 3 rds while Buckley looks to get 0.7 subs per 15 min.

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The last time he fought, Colby Covington went up against Leon Edwards and wound up losing the fight via unanimous decision in round 5. Edwards landed 65 of 116 total strikes attempted in that fight. Covington walked away from this fight having landed 109 of 194 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Edwards ended up landing 57 of 108, giving him a percentage of 52%. He landed 21 of 62 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Covington landed 34% of his significant strikes by sticking 44 of 126. Of those significant strikes, he connected on 20 of 86 aimed at the head. 98% of the significant strikes connected on by Edwards and 100% of them landed by Covington were thrown at a distance.

In the last bout for Joaquin Buckley, he fought Stephen Thompson and wound up taking home the victory via a punch to the head in round 3. Thompson ended up connecting on 73% of his significant strikes at distance and Buckley landed 82% of his significant strikes at distance. Buckley ended up connecting on 36% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 34 of 93. He ended up landing 23 of 78 significant strikes to the head. Thompson ended up connecting on 49 of 106 significant strikes in that fight. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he ended up landing 38 of 93 aimed at the head. Relating to total strikes thrown in that contest, Thompson was 63 of 121 while Buckley connected on 55 of 117 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other bouts on the card to watch

One more match to look forward to is when Cub Swanson enters the Octagon with Billy Quarantillo. Swanson holds a mark of 29-14-0. The 41-year-old weighs 145 lbs and measures 5'8". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 70". Quarantillo measures in at 5'10" and is weighing in at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout with a mark of 18-6-0. The 36-year-old has a wingspan of 70". When it comes to grappling, Cub Swanson gets his opposition to the mat 1.04 times per 3 rounds while Billy Quarantillo scores a takedown 1.24 times per 15 minutes. In the striking category, Swanson is landing 4.67 strikes per minute and connecting on 50% of his attempted strikes. The other guy in this fight is Billy Quarantillo, who connects on 56% of his attempted strikes and connects on 7.36 per minute.

Another bout to watch is when Bruno Silva is set to square up in the Octagon against Manel Kape. Kape looks to add a victory to his career record of 19-7-0. The 31-year-old is weighing in at 125 lbs and stands 5'5". The southpaw fighter stretches 68". Silva comes in at 5'4" and will fight at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 14-5-2 (1 NC). The 34-year-old reaches 65". In terms of grappling, Manel Kape is able to stop 73% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is scoring a takedown on 33% of his tries. Silva is finishing his takedowns on 28% of the tries he takes and curbs 60% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Concerning striking, Kape takes 4.06 strikes/min while he is dealing 4.44 per minute. Silva, moreover, takes 3.14 strikes per minute and is dealing 3.32 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Colby Covington (+225)

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