Christian Leroy Duncan vs Gregory Rodrigues Pick, 7/27/2024 Predictions UFC 304 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 7/23/2024

Christian Leroy Duncan vs Gregory Rodrigues

UFC 304

Co-op Live in Manchester, England

Saturday, July 27, 2024

Christian Leroy Duncan will face off against Gregory Rodrigues at UFC 304 on Saturday, July 27, 2024. The moneyline has Duncan coming in at -142 while Rodrigues is at +120.

Christian "CLD" Leroy Duncan will be looking to add a win to his career record of 10-1-0. The 28-year-old weighs 185 lbs and stands in at 6'2". The switch fighter stretches 79". Gregory "Robocop" Rodrigues comes in at 6'3" and steps on the scale at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 15-5-0. The 32-year-old stretches 75". With respect to significant strikes, Christian Leroy Duncan connects on 5.96 per min while Gregory Rodrigues is connecting on 6.08 significant strikes per min. Leroy Duncan is connecting on 62% of the significant strikes he throws while Rodrigues connects on 55%. In terms of defending themselves, "CLD" absorbs 3.82 significant strikes per min while "Robocop" absorbs 5.30. Leroy Duncan also thwarts 50% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt and Rodrigues curbs 51% of the strikes thrown his way.

ufc picks Christian Leroy Duncan ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC 304	Christian Leroy Duncan	Gregory Rodrigues
Opening Odds	-142	+120
Record	10-1-0	15-5-0
Average Fight Time	8:18	7:28
Height	6'2"	6'3"
Weight	185 lbs	185 lbs
Reach	79"	75"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	5.96	6.08
Striking Accuracy	62%	55%

In terms of wrestling, Christian Leroy Duncan is the lesser skilled grappler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 0.45 times per 3 rounds. Leroy Duncan is getting his opponent to the mat on 14% of his attempts and is stuffing 50% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Rodrigues is scoring a takedown on 45% of the takedowns he tries and stopping 85% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding subbing opponents, Leroy Duncan is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by going for 0.3 subs per 15 minutes while Rodrigues looks to get 0.5 subs per 15 min.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Christian Leroy Duncan faced Claudio Ribeiro and ended up winning this fight via a punch to the head in round 2. Ribeiro ended up landing 13 of 39 of the strikes he threw in total in this fight. Duncan ended the night having landed 75 of 105 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Ribeiro landed 4 of 26, which gave him a percentage of 15%. He finished the fight landing 1 of 19 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side, Duncan ended up landing 70% of his significant strikes by connecting on 65 of 92. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he connected on 39 of 62 to the head. 100% of the significant strikes connected on by Ribeiro and 47% of them landed by Duncan were thrown at a distance.

In the last fight for Gregory Rodrigues, he faced off with Brad Tavares and ended up getting the victory in the fight by way of a punch to the head in round 3. Tavares landed 97% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and Rodrigues ended up connecting on 90% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Rodrigues ended up landing 57% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 71 of 123. He ended up landing 53 of 102 significant strikes aimed at the head. Tavares ended up connecting on 37 of 84 significant strikes in that contest. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 28 of 70 aimed at the head. When discussing total strikes attempted in that fight, Tavares landed 42 of 90 and Rodrigues landed 79 of 135 total strikes.

Other fights to watch out for

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Sam Patterson squares up against Kiefer Crosbie. Patterson has a record of 11-2-1. The 28-year-old will fight at 170 lbs and stands 6'3". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 78". Crosbie measures 5'11" and will fight at 170 lbs. The switch fighter walks into the cage with a mark of 10-4-0. The 34-year-old reaches 70". When it comes to grappling, Sam Patterson takes his opponents to the mat 1.19 times per 15 minutes while Kiefer Crosbie is averaging a takedown 0.50 times per 15 minutes. In terms of striking, Patterson is landing 2.54 strikes per minute and landing 38% of his attempted strikes. On the other side of the cage we have Kiefer Crosbie, who is landing 66% of his attempted strikes and connects on 8.10 per minute.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Marcin Prachnio is set to encounter Modestas Bukauskas. Bukauskas holds a record of 15-6-0. The 30-year-old tips the scales at 205 lbs and measures in at 6'3". The switch fighter stretches 78". Prachnio stands in at 6'3" and tips the scales at 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a mark of 17-7-0. The 36-year-old has a wingspan of 74". Regarding wrestling, Modestas Bukauskas is able to deflect 71% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is taking his opponents to the mat on 15% of his tries. Prachnio is finishing his takedown tries on 20% of the attempts he tries and is able to deflect 58% of all takedown tries against him. In the category of striking, Bukauskas absorbs 3.87 strikes per minute while he dishes out 3.28 strikes per min. Prachnio, notwithstanding, absorbs 3.30 strikes/minute and is dishing out 5.61 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Gregory Rodrigues (+120)

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Christian Leroy Duncan vs Gregory Rodrigues Pick, 7/27/2024 Predictions UFC 304 Odds

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