Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler Pick, 11/16/2024 Predictions UFC 309 Odds

by Tony Sink - 11/12/2024

Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler

UFC 309

Madison Square Garden in NYC

Saturday, November 16, 2024

Charles Oliveira will take on Michael Chandler at UFC 309 on Saturday, November 16, 2024. The moneyline has Oliveira coming in at -270 while Chandler is priced at +220.

Charles "Do Bronxs" Oliveira walks into the cage with a mark of 34-10-0 (1 NC). The 35-year-old steps on the scale at 155 lbs and stands in at 5'10". The orthodox fighter stretches 74". Michael "Iron" Chandler stands in at 5'8" and is weighing in at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 23-8-0. The 38-year-old extends his reach 71". In terms of significant strikes, Charles Oliveira is connecting on 3.39 per minute and Michael Chandler is landing 4.89 significant strikes per minute. Oliveira connects on 53% of the significant strikes he tries and Chandler connects on 46%. In terms of defending themselves, "Do Bronxs" takes 3.20 significant strikes per min while "Iron" allows 4.58. Oliveira also curbs 51% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way while Chandler deflects 46% of the shots thrown his way.

ufc picks Charles Oliveira ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC 309	Charles Oliveira	Michael Chandler
Opening Odds	-270	+220
Record	34-10-0 (1 NC)	23-8-0
Average Fight Time	7:07	7:44
Height	5'10"	5'8"
Weight	155 lbs	155 lbs
Reach	74"	71"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.39	4.89
Striking Accuracy	53%	46%

In the grappling category, Charles Oliveira is not as effective of a wrestler as he is averaging a takedown 2.17 times per 3 rds. Oliveira is taking his opponents to the canvas on 40% of his attempts and is defending 55% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Chandler is taking his opponents to the canvas on 38% of the takedowns he tries and is stuffing 71% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. In terms of going for the sub, Oliveira is the more skilled fighter by attempting 2.8 submissions per 15 min while Chandler looks to get 0.9 submissions per 3 rds.

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In his last bout, Charles Oliveira squared up with Arman Tsarukyan and ended up taking the loss by way of split decision in round 3. Tsarukyan landed 75 of 117 total strikes that he let go. Oliveira finished this fight landing 33 of 53 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Tsarukyan landed 49 of 83, which gave him a percentage of 59%. He finished the fight landing 37 of 69 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the cage, Oliveira landed 51% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 19 of 37. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he was 11 of 22 pointed at the head. 46% of the significant strikes landed by Tsarukyan and 36% of them connected on by Oliveira were tallied at a distance.

In the last fight for Michael Chandler, he battled Dustin Poirier and walked away in defeat by rear naked choke in round 3. Poirier landed 84% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Chandler landed 58% of his significant strikes at distance. Chandler ended up landing 43% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 43 of 100. He ended up landing 32 of 80 significant strikes to the head. Poirier connected on 38 of 76 significant strikes in that fight. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he landed 34 of 71 aimed at the head. In terms of total strikes thrown in that contest, Poirier landed 63 of 105 while Chandler connected on 65 of 135 total strikes.

Other fights on the card to keep an eye on

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Bo Nickal fights Paul Craig. Nickal has a mark of 6-0-0. The 28-year-old weighs in at 185 lbs and stands 6'1". The southpaw fighter reaches 76". Craig measures 6'3" and weighs 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a record of 17-8-1. The 36-year-old has a reach of 76". In terms of takedowns, Bo Nickal is averaging a takedown 7.46 times per 3 rounds while Paul Craig is averaging a takedown 1.68 times per 3 rds. When it comes to striking, Nickal connects on 1.64 strikes/min and connects on 62% of his attempted strikes. Joining him in the Octagon is Paul Craig, who lands 46% of the strikes he attempts and lands 2.45 per min.

One more can't miss bout is when James Llontop is set to enter the Octagon against Mauricio Ruffy. Ruffy comes into this bout with a record of 10-1-0. The 28-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and measures 5'11". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 75". Llontop stands in at 6'0" and records a weight of 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his total of 14-4-0. The 25-year-old has a reach of 73". In terms of wrestling, Mauricio Ruffy curbs 85% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is scoring a takedown on 15% of his attempts. Llontop is taking his opponents down on 15% of the tries he takes and is able to curb 54% of all takedown tries against him. In the matter of striking, Ruffy takes 3.80 strikes per minute and he deals 4.88 strikes/min. Llontop, at the same time, is taking 3.97 strikes/min and deals 5.38 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Michael Chandler (+220)

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Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler Pick, 11/16/2024 Predictions UFC 309 Odds

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