Bo Nickal vs Paul Craig Pick, 11/16/2024 Predictions UFC 309 Odds
Bo Nickal vs Paul Craig
UFC 309
Madison Square Garden in NYC
Saturday, November 16, 2024
Bo Nickal will battle Paul Craig at UFC 309 on Saturday, November 16, 2024. The line has Nickal priced at -1200 while Craig is at +750.
Bo Nickal has a mark of 6-0-0. The 28-year-old weighs in at 185 lbs and stands 6'1". The southpaw fighter reaches 76". Paul "Bearjew" Craig measures 6'3" and weighs 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a record of 17-8-1. The 36-year-old has a reach of 76". With respect to significant strikes, Bo Nickal lands 1.64 per minute while Paul Craig is landing 2.45 significant strikes per minute. Nickal is landing 62% of the significant strikes he attempts while Craig connects on 46%. When it comes to defending in the Octagon, Nickal absorbs 0.50 significant strikes per minute while "Bearjew" absorbs 2.97. Nickal also thwarts 70% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt and Craig stops 44% of the shots thrown in his direction.
| UFC 309 | Bo Nickal | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -1200 | +750 |
| Record | 6-0-0 | 17-8-1 |
| Average Fight Time | 2:49 | 7:58 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'3" |
| Weight | 185 lbs | 185 lbs |
| Reach | 76" | 76" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 1.64 | 2.45 |
| Striking Accuracy | 62% | 46% |
In terms of takedowns, Bo Nickal is the more capable wrestler as he takes his opponents down 7.46 times per 15 min. Nickal is finishing his takedown attempts on 50% of his attempts and stuffing 15% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Craig is finishing his takedowns on 20% of the takedowns he tries and is defending 37% of the tries against him. Regarding going for the sub, Nickal is the more capable fighter by trying 7.5 submissions per 3 rounds while Craig looks to get 1.6 submissions per 3 rounds.
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In his last fight, Bo Nickal squared up with Cody Brundage and took home the victory via rear naked choke in round 2. Brundage ended up landing 33 of 41 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Nickal ended the night having landed 45 of 59 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Brundage ended up landing 4 of 12, giving him a percentage of 33%. He ended up landing 1 of 9 significant strikes directed at the head. Statistically, Nickal ended up landing 61% of his significant strikes by connecting on 8 of 13. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he landed 6 of 11 pointed at the head. 50% of the significant strikes landed by Brundage and 37% of them connected on by Nickal were done at a distance.
In the last bout for Paul Craig, he fought Caio Borralho and was on the losing end of this fight via a punch to the head in round 2. Borralho ended up connecting on 97% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Craig ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Craig ended up landing 45% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 22 of 48. He ended up connecting on 4 of 19 significant strikes to the head. Borralho ended up connecting on 36 of 50 significant strikes in that fight. Of those significant strikes, he ended up landing 29 of 41 to the head. When discussing total strikes thrown, Borralho ended up connecting on 43 of 57 and Craig landed 22 of 50 of the strikes he threw in total.
Other bouts on the card to watch
Another fight to keep an eye on is when Mauricio Ruffy fights James Llontop. Ruffy comes into this bout with a record of 10-1-0. The 28-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and measures 5'11". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 75". Llontop stands in at 6'0" and records a weight of 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his total of 14-4-0. The 25-year-old has a reach of 73". Regarding grappling, Mauricio Ruffy scores a takedown 0.30 times per 3 rds while James Llontop takes his opponents to the mat 0.70 times per 3 rds. When it comes to striking, Ruffy is connecting on 4.88 strikes per minute and landing 59% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side of the cage we have James Llontop, who lands 43% of the strikes he attempts and is landing 5.38 per minute.
An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Marcus McGhee is set to square up against Jonathan Martinez. Martinez walks into the Octagon with a mark of 19-5-0. The 30-year-old steps on the scale at 135 lbs and stands in at 5'8". The southpaw fighter reaches 70". McGhee stands in at 5'8" and is weighing in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a mark of 9-1-0. The 34-year-old stretches 69". In terms of grappling, Jonathan Martinez curbs 68% of the takedowns his opponents try and is taking his opponents to the canvas on 35% of his attempts. McGhee is finishing his takedowns on 33% of his attempts and thwarts 85% of all takedown tries against him. Concerning striking, Martinez absorbs 3.87 strikes per minute and he is landing 4.54 strikes per min. McGhee, at the same time, absorbs 2.52 strikes per minute and is dealing 5.43 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Bo Nickal (-1200)
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