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Alexandre Pantoja vs Steve Erceg Pick, 5/4/2024 Predictions UFC 301 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 5/3/2024

Alexandre Pantoja vs Steve Erceg

UFC 301

Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Saturday, May 4, 2024

Alexandre Pantoja will enter the Octagon with Steve Erceg at UFC 301 on Saturday, May 4, 2024. The odds have Pantoja at -185 while Erceg is at +154.

Alexandre "The Cannibal" Pantoja holds a mark of 27-5-0. The 34-year-old weighs in at 125 lbs and comes in at 5'5". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 67". Steve "Astroboy" Erceg comes in at 5'8" and weighs in at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a record of 12-1-0. The 28-year-old has a reach of 68". Regarding significant strikes, Alexandre Pantoja connects on 4.32 per min while Steve Erceg is landing 4.57 significant strikes per minute. Pantoja is connecting on 49% of the significant strikes he throws while Erceg is landing 48%. When it comes to defending themselves, "The Cannibal" takes 3.90 significant strikes per minute and "Astroboy" absorbs 3.64. Pantoja also defends against 50% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him and Erceg deflects 55% of them.

ufc picks Alexandre Pantoja ufc predictions best bet odds

 

UFC 301 Alexandre Pantoja Steve Erceg
Opening Odds -185 +154
Record 27-5-0 12-1-0
Average Fight Time 12:10 11:49
Height 5'5" 5'8"
Weight 125 lbs 125 lbs
Reach 67" 68"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.32 4.57
Striking Accuracy 49% 48%

 

In the grappling category, Alexandre Pantoja is the more apt grappler as he takes his opponents to the mat 2.20 times per 3 rds. Pantoja is finishing his takedown attempts on 48% of his tries and is defending 67% of all takedown attempts. Erceg is taking his opponents down on 30% of his takedown attempts and defending 77% of the tries against him. Regarding submission attempts, Pantoja is the more apt fighter by attempting 1.0 finish per 3 rounds while Erceg attempts 0.8 submissions per 15 min.

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In his last bout, Alexandre Pantoja went up against Brandon Royval and got a win for the night via unanimous decision in round 5. Royval ended up landing 281 of 390 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Pantoja ended the night having landed 126 of 195 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Royval ended up landing 111 of 204, which gave him a rate of 54%. He landed 102 of 193 significant strikes to the head. Statistically, Pantoja landed 60% of his significant strikes by connecting on 95 of 156. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he landed 49 of 101 to the head. 81% of the significant strikes landed by Royval and 77% of them connected on by Pantoja were tallied at a distance.

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In the last fight for Steve Erceg, he battled Alessandro Costa and ended up winning this fight by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Costa landed 64% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Erceg connected on 58% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Erceg ended up landing 59% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 74 of 125. He landed 41 of 87 significant strikes directed at the head. Costa ended up landing 54 of 97 significant strikes in that contest. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he ended up connecting on 31 of 70 directed at the head. In relation to the total strikes thrown in this fight, Costa ended up connecting on 85 of 129 and Erceg was 104 of 162 total strikes.

Other fights to watch

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Jonathan Martinez faces off against Jose Aldo. Martinez steps into the cage holding a record of 19-4-0. The 30-year-old will fight at 135 lbs and measures in at 5'8". The southpaw fighter extends his reach 70". Aldo stands in at 5'7" and steps on the scale at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his career total of 31-8-0. The 37-year-old stretches 70". When it comes to grappling, Jonathan Martinez takes his opponents down 0.44 times per 3 rounds while Jose Aldo is able to score a takedown 0.49 times per 3 rounds. Regarding striking, Martinez lands an average of 4.64 strikes/minute and is landing 50% of the strikes that he attempts. The other guy in this fight is Jose Aldo, who connects on 46% of the strikes he has tried and is connecting on 3.57 per minute.

Another must see fight on the night is when Vitor Petrino is set to enter the Octagon with Anthony Smith. Smith holds a career mark of 37-19-0. The 35-year-old is fighting at 205 lbs and comes in at 6'4". The orthodox fighter stretches 76". Petrino measures in at 6'2" and records a weight of 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his record of 11-0-0. The 26-year-old has a wingspan of 77". Regarding wrestling, Anthony Smith is able to thwart 48% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is taking his opponents to the canvas on 26% of the times he tries. Petrino is taking his opponents to the mat on 68% of his tries and deflects 71% of takedowns his opponents have tried. With reference to striking, Smith absorbs 4.47 strikes/min and he is connecting on 3.21 per minute. Petrino, notwithstanding, is absorbing 2.49 strikes/minute and connects on 2.74 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Alexandre Pantoja (-185)

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