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Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko Pick, 9/14/2024 Predictions UFC 306 Odds

by Tony Sink - 9/12/2024

Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko

UFC 306

The Sphere in Las Vegas

Saturday, September 14, 2024

Alexa Grasso will battle Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 306 on Saturday, September 14, 2024. The line has Grasso coming in at -135 while Shevchenko is priced at +114.

Alexa Grasso will be looking to add a win to her career total of 16-3-1. The 31-year-old steps on the scale at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'5". The orthodox fighter extends her reach 66". Valentina "Bullet" Shevchenko stands in at 5'5" and tips the scales at 125 lbs. The southpaw fighter has a record of 23-4-1. The 36-year-old extends her reach 66". Regarding significant strikes, Alexa Grasso lands 4.67 per min and Valentina Shevchenko lands 3.28 significant strikes per min. Grasso is connecting on 43% of the significant strikes she attempts and Shevchenko connects on 52%. In terms of defending in the cage, Grasso allows 3.95 significant strikes per minute and "Bullet" takes 2.11. Grasso also thwarts 58% of the significant strikes her opponents throw at her while Shevchenko is able to curb 62% of the shots thrown.

ufc picks Alexa Grasso ufc predictions best bet odds
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UFC 306 Alexa Grasso Valentina Shevchenko
Opening Odds -135 +114
Record 16-3-1 23-4-1
Average Fight Time 15:06 17:57
Height 5'5" 5'5"
Weight 125 lbs 125 lbs
Reach 66" 66"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.67 3.28
Striking Accuracy 43% 52%

In the grappling category, Alexa Grasso is not as efficient of a wrestler as she takes her opponents to the canvas 0.41 times per 3 rds. Grasso is scoring a takedown on 45% of her tries and stuffing 59% of the takedowns her opponents try. Shevchenko is taking her opponents to the canvas on 63% of the takedowns she attempts and stopping 71% of the attempts against her. Regarding going for the sub, Grasso is the more experienced of the two fighters by going for 0.6 finishes per 3 rds while Shevchenko looks to get 0.4 finishes per 3 rds.

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In her last appearance in the Octagon, Alexa Grasso fought Valentina Shevchenko and ended up in a draw by split decision in round 5. Shevchenko landed 199 of 301 total strikes that she threw in that contest. Grasso finished this fight landing 262 of 408 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Shevchenko ended up landing 80 of 179, which gave her a percentage of 44%. She finished the fight landing 61 of 158 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Grasso ended up landing 41% of her significant strikes by landing 84 of 203. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, she landed 54 of 151 aimed at the head. 83% of the significant strikes landed by Shevchenko and 60% of them connected on by Grasso were tallied at distance.

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In the last bout for Valentina Shevchenko, she fought Alexa Grasso and ended up in a draw by split decision in round 5. Grasso ended up landing 60% of her significant strikes at distance while Shevchenko landed 83% of her significant strikes at distance. Shevchenko ended up landing 44% of the significant strikes she attempted by landing 80 of 179. She landed 61 of 158 significant strikes aimed at the head. Grasso ended up landing 84 of 203 significant strikes in that battle. Of those significant strikes, she ended up landing 54 of 151 directed at the head. Discussing the total strikes thrown in this fight, Grasso landed 262 of 408 and Shevchenko connected on 199 of 301 total strikes.

Other bouts to watch

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Irene Aldana fights Norma Dumont. Aldana walks into the Octagon with a record of 15-7-0. The 36-year-old weighs 135 lbs and measures in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter stretches 68". Dumont stands in at 5'7" and is fighting at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a mark of 11-2-0. The 33-year-old reaches 67". In the grappling category, Irene Aldana gets a takedown 0.16 times per 3 rds while Norma Dumont takes her opponents to the canvas 1.91 times per 3 rounds. In the striking category, Aldana is connecting on 5.24 strikes per min and is landing 40% out of all the strikes she attempts. On the other side of the cage we have Norma Dumont, who connects on 49% of the strikes she attempts and connects for an average of 3.11 per minute.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Ketlen Souza is set to fight Yazmin Jauregui. Jauregui holds a career record of 11-1-0. The 25-year-old is weighing in at 115 lbs and measures 5'3". The orthodox fighter extends her reach 64". Souza measures 5'3" and is weighing in at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a mark of 14-4-0. The 30-year-old stretches 63". Concerning grappling, Yazmin Jauregui is preventing 85% of the takedowns her opponents go for and is getting her opponent to the mat on 15% of her tries. Souza is taking her opponents to the mat on 50% of the tries she takes and thwarts 50% of the takedowns her opponents attempt. In the matter of striking, Jauregui is absorbing 5.12 strikes/min and she is landing 6.26 strikes per min. Souza, on the other side, is absorbing 2.03 strikes per minute and lands 4.78 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Alexa Grasso (-135)

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