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Alessandro Costa vs Kevin Borjas Pick, 5/4/2024 Predictions UFC 301 Odds

by Tony Sink - 5/3/2024

Alessandro Costa vs Kevin Borjas

UFC 301

Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Saturday, May 4, 2024

Alessandro Costa will enter the Octagon against Kevin Borjas at UFC 301 on Saturday, May 4, 2024. The odds have Costa at -130 while Borjas is priced at +110.

Alessandro "Nono" Costa has a career record of 13-4-0. The 28-year-old is weighing in at 125 lbs and stands 5'4". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 67". Kevin "El Gallo Negro" Borjas measures in at 5'5" and weighs 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a record of 9-2-0. The 26-year-old stretches 68". In terms of significant strikes, Alessandro Costa is connecting on 3.75 per min while Kevin Borjas is landing 5.40 significant strikes per min. Costa lands 46% of the significant strikes he attempts and Borjas is landing 41%. Regarding defending in the Octagon, "Nono" takes 3.61 significant strikes per min while "El Gallo Negro" absorbs 6.63. Costa also defends 56% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt and Borjas deflects 49% of the strikes thrown his way.

ufc picks Alessandro Costa ufc predictions best bet odds

 

UFC 301 Alessandro Costa Kevin Borjas
Opening Odds -130 +110
Record 13-4-0 9-2-0
Average Fight Time 12:04 15:00
Height 5'4" 5'5"
Weight 125 lbs 125 lbs
Reach 67" 68"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.75 5.40
Striking Accuracy 46% 41%

 

In terms of wrestling, Alessandro Costa is the more capable wrestler as he gets a takedown 0.31 times per 15 minutes. Costa is finishing his takedown attempts on 16% of his tries and defending 90% of all takedowns attempted on him. Borjas is finishing his takedowns on 0% of his takedown tries and thwarting 56% of the attempts against him. Regarding subbing the opposition, Costa is less likely to go for the finish by attempting 0.4 subs per 15 minutes while Borjas tries 0.5 subs per 3 rounds.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Alessandro Costa fought Steve Erceg and wound up taking the loss via unanimous decision in round 3. Erceg ended up landing 104 of 162 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Costa finished this fight landing 85 of 129 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Erceg ended up landing 74 of 125, giving him a percentage of 59%. He ended up landing 41 of 87 significant strikes to the head. Statistically, Costa landed 55% of his significant strikes by connecting on 54 of 97. Out of those significant strikes, he connected on 31 of 70 to the head. 58% of the significant strikes connected on by Erceg and 64% of them landed by Costa were thrown at a distance.

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In the last Octagon appearance for Kevin Borjas, he fought Joshua Van and took a loss on the night via unanimous decision in round 3. Van ended up landing 98% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and Borjas ended up landing 97% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Borjas connected on 38% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 75 of 197. He ended up connecting on 54 of 170 significant strikes directed at the head. Van connected on 156 of 300 significant strikes in that fight. Of those significant strikes, he ended up landing 92 of 227 directed at the head. In relation to total strikes that he let go in that contest, Van was 165 of 311 and Borjas was 78 of 200 total strikes.

Other bouts to watch out for

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Karolina Kowalkiewicz goes up against Iasmin Lucindo. Kowalkiewicz will be looking to add a victory to her career total of 16-7-0. The 38-year-old records a weight of 115 lbs and measures in at 5'3". The orthodox fighter reaches 64". Lucindo stands in at 5'3" and is weighing in at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a career record of 15-5-0. The 22-year-old stretches 66". Regarding grappling, Karolina Kowalkiewicz is able to score a takedown 0.36 times per 3 rds while Iasmin Lucindo takes her opponents to the canvas 2.33 times per 15 min. When talking about striking, Kowalkiewicz connects on 5.92 strikes per minute and connecting on 43% of the strikes that she throws. On the other side we have Iasmin Lucindo, who is landing 39% of the strikes she attempts and is connecting on 3.33 per min.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Ernesta Kareckaite is set to square up with Dione Barbosa. Barbosa steps into the cage with a mark of 6-2-0. The 31-year-old will fight at 125 lbs and comes in at 5'6". The orthodox fighter reaches 66". Kareckaite stands in at 5'9" and steps on the scale at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to her career record of 5-0-1. The 25-year-old reaches 71". When it comes to takedowns, Dione Barbosa is able to defend against 0% of the takedowns her opponents try and is taking her opponents to the canvas on 100% of the times she tries. Kareckaite is taking her opponents to the mat on 50% of her tries and deflects 100% of all takedown attempts. With reference to striking, Barbosa absorbs 0.65 strikes per min while she is landing 0.87 strikes per minute. Kareckaite, at the same time, absorbs 11.20 strikes/minute and connects on 12.27 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Alessandro Costa (-130)

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