Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso Pick, 3/4/2023 Predictions UFC 285 Odds

Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso

UFC 285

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, March 4, 2023

Valentina Shevchenko will enter the Octagon with Alexa Grasso at UFC 285 on Saturday, March 4, 2023. The opening moneyline has Shevchenko coming in at -600 while Grasso is at +450.

Valentina "Bullet" Shevchenko walks into the cage with a record of 23-3-0. The 34-year-old records a weight of 125 lbs and measures in at 5'5". The southpaw fighter extends her reach 66". Alexa Grasso stands 5'5" and weighs in at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a mark of 15-3-0. The 29-year-old stretches 66". Regarding significant strikes, Valentina Shevchenko lands 3.19 per minute and Alexa Grasso is landing 5.14 significant strikes per min. Shevchenko connects on 52% of the significant strikes she attempts while Grasso lands 44%. Concerning their defense in the cage, "Bullet" absorbs 1.90 significant strikes per min and Grasso takes 4.02. Shevchenko also defends 63% of the significant strikes her opponents throw at her and Grasso defends against 61% of the shots thrown.

When it comes to grappling, Valentina Shevchenko is the more capable grappler as she takes her opponents to the mat 2.53 times per 3 rounds. Shevchenko is scoring a takedown on 64% of her tries and stuffing 70% of all takedown attempts. Grasso is taking her opponents to the canvas on 57% of the takedowns she attempts and is defending 64% of the attempts against her. Regarding going for the sub, Shevchenko is the lesser skilled fighter by trying 0.4 submissions per 3 rds while Grasso looks to get 0.6 submissions per 15 min.

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In her last bout, Valentina Shevchenko squared up with Taila Santos and ended up getting the victory by split decision in round 5. Santos landed 128 of 180 of the strikes she let go in total for this contest. Shevchenko walked away from this fight having landed 234 of 309 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Santos landed 55 of 102, which gave her a rate of 53%. She landed 18 of 58 significant strikes to the head. On the other side, Shevchenko landed 55% of her significant strikes by landing 77 of 139. Out of those significant strikes, she connected on 46 of 100 aimed at the head. 81% of the significant strikes landed by Santos and 84% of them landed by Shevchenko were done at a distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Alexa Grasso, she fought Viviane Araujo and wound up getting the victory via unanimous decision in round 5. Araujo connected on 98% of the significant strikes she took from distance and Grasso landed 93% of her significant strikes at distance. Grasso connected on 49% of the significant strikes she attempted by connecting on 153 of 311. She ended up connecting on 101 of 243 significant strikes directed at the head. Araujo ended up connecting on 126 of 264 significant strikes in that contest. Of all the significant strikes, she connected on 103 of 235 to the head. When discussing total strikes thrown, Araujo was 148 of 288 while Grasso landed 193 of 353 of the strikes she threw in total.

Other fights to watch out for

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Viviane Araujo faces off against Amanda Ribas. Araujo comes into this fight with a record of 11-4-0. The 36-year-old will fight at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'4". The orthodox fighter reaches 68". Ribas stands in at 5'3" and is weighing in at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to her total of 10-3-0. The 29-year-old reaches 66". Regarding grappling, Viviane Araujo is able to score a takedown 2.03 times per 15 minutes and Amanda Ribas is able to score a takedown 2.19 times per 3 rds. Regarding striking, Araujo lands an average of 4.82 strikes/min and connecting on 48% of the strikes that she throws. On the other side we have Amanda Ribas, who is landing 40% of the strikes she attempts and lands 4.46 per min.

One more can't miss bout is when Tabatha Ricci is set to clash with Jessica Penne. Penne looks to add a win to her career total of 14-7-0. The 40-year-old steps on the scale at 115 lbs and measures 5'5". The orthodox fighter stretches 67". Ricci measures in at 5'1" and weighs 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to her total of 7-1-0. The 28-year-old extends her reach 61". In terms of wrestling, Jessica Penne is able to curb 40% of her opponents takedown tries and is getting her opponent to the mat on 21% of her tries. Ricci is taking her opponents to the mat on 45% of the tries she takes and deflects 15% of all takedown attempts. Concerning striking, Penne is absorbing 4.74 strikes/min while she is dealing 2.62 per minute. Ricci, in contrast, is taking 4.89 strikes/minute and is dishing out 2.95 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take Valentina Shevchenko (-600)

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