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Tony Ferguson vs Bobby Green Pick, 7/29/2023 Predictions UFC 291 Odds

by Tony Sink - 7/24/2023

Tony Ferguson vs Bobby Green

UFC 291

Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, UT

Saturday, July 29, 2023

Tony Ferguson will take on Bobby Green at UFC 291 on Saturday, July 29, 2023. The moneyline has Ferguson at +285 while Green is at -375.

Tony "El Cucuy" Ferguson has a career mark of 26-8-0. The 39-year-old is fighting at 155 lbs and stands in at 5'11". The orthodox fighter stretches 76". Bobby "King" Green stands 5'10" and will fight at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a record of 29-14-1 (1 NC). The 36-year-old has an arm span of 71". With respect to significant strikes, Tony Ferguson is landing 5.07 per minute and Bobby Green is connecting on 5.97 significant strikes per minute. Ferguson lands 45% of the significant strikes he tries while Green lands 51%. When it comes to defending in the Octagon, "El Cucuy" allows 3.95 significant strikes per minute and "King" allows 3.67. Ferguson also defends against 58% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way while Green is able to deflect 62% of the shots thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Tony Ferguson ufc predictions best bet odds

 

UFC 291 Tony Ferguson Bobby Green
Opening Odds +285 -375
Record 26-8-0 29-14-1 (1 NC)
Average Fight Time 11:20 11:50
Height 5'11" 5'10"
Weight 155 lbs 155 lbs
Reach 76" 71"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.07 5.97
Striking Accuracy 45% 51%

 

In the wrestling category, Tony Ferguson is the lesser skilled wrestler as he scores a takedown 0.44 times per 3 rds. Ferguson is scoring a takedown on 41% of his tries and defending 66% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Green is getting his opponent to the mat on 37% of his takedown attempts and thwarting 72% of the attempts against him. Regarding going for the sub, Ferguson is the more experienced submission fighter by going for 1.0 submission per 3 rds while Green attempts 0.3 finishes per 3 rounds.

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In his last fight, Tony Ferguson went up against Nate Diaz and was defeated via guillotine choke in round 4. Diaz landed 101 of 217 total strikes that he let go in that contest. Ferguson walked away from this fight having landed 80 of 172 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Diaz ended up landing 101 of 217, which gave him a percentage of 46%. He landed 71 of 178 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side, Ferguson ended up landing 46% of his significant strikes by landing 80 of 172. Of those significant strikes, he was 23 of 106 aimed at the head. 98% of the significant strikes landed by Diaz and 100% of them connected on by Ferguson were done at distance.

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In the last fight for Bobby Green, he squared up with Jared Gordon and the fight ended in a no contest by way of a head butt from Green in round 1. Gordon landed 100% of his significant strikes at distance while Green ended up landing 73% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Green connected on 33% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 23 of 69. He connected on 15 of 56 significant strikes directed at the head. Gordon ended up connecting on 17 of 53 significant strikes in that battle. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he ended up landing 9 of 34 directed at the head. Discussing total strikes that he let go, Gordon landed 17 of 53 while Green ended up connecting on 23 of 69 of all the strikes he threw.

Other bouts on the card to keep an eye on

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Michael Chiesa squares up against Kevin Holland. Chiesa walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 18-6-0. The 35-year-old is weighing in at 170 lbs and stands in at 6'1". The southpaw fighter reaches 75". Holland stands in at 6'3" and weighs 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a record of 24-9-0 (1 NC). The 30-year-old stretches 81". When it comes to grappling, Michael Chiesa gets a takedown 3.39 times per 15 minutes while Kevin Holland is able to score a takedown 0.84 times per 3 rounds. In terms of striking, Chiesa lands an average of 1.88 strikes per min and is connecting on 41% of his attempted strikes. Joining him in the Octagon is Kevin Holland, who tags the opposition on 52% of the strikes he attempts and connects on 4.12 per min.

If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Trevin Giles is set to face off with Gabriel Bonfim. Bonfim walks into the Octagon holding a record of 14-0-0. The 25-year-old tips the scales at 170 lbs and measures 6'1". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 72". Giles measures in at 6'0" and steps on the scale at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout with a mark of 16-4-0. The 30-year-old extends his reach 74". In terms of grappling, Gabriel Bonfim is thwarting 85% of his opponents' takedown attempts and is taking his opponents to the mat on 85% of the times he tries. Giles is finishing his takedown tries on 55% of his attempts and prevents 73% of all takedown attempts. With regard to striking, Bonfim is absorbing 5.76 strikes per min and he is landing 6.95 per min. Giles, in contrast, is absorbing 2.09 strikes per min and lands 2.99 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Bobby Green (-375)

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