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Steve Garcia vs Melquizael Costa Pick, 12/2/2023 Predictions UFC Austin Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 11/27/2023

Steve Garcia vs Melquizael Costa

UFC Austin

Moody Center in Austin, TX

Saturday, December 2, 2023

Steve Garcia will face off against Melquizael Costa at UFC Austin on Saturday, December 2, 2023. The line has Garcia priced at +195 while Costa is priced at -238.

Steve "Mean Machine" Garcia will be looking to add a victory to his record of 14-5-0. The 31-year-old is fighting at 145 lbs and measures 6'0". The southpaw fighter reaches 75". Melquizael "Melk Cauthy" Costa stands 5'10" and steps on the scale at 145 lbs. The southpaw fighter has a mark of 20-6-0. The 27-year-old has a wingspan of 71". In the category of significant strikes, Steve Garcia lands 4.85 per min while Melquizael Costa connects on 5.11 significant strikes per minute. Garcia connects on 56% of the significant strikes he tries while Costa connects on 45%. When it comes to defending in the Octagon, "Mean Machine" absorbs 2.61 significant strikes per min and "Melk Cauthy" absorbs 2.53. Garcia also curbs 46% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt and Costa is able to deflect 64% of the strikes thrown his way.

ufc picks Steve Garcia predictions best bet odds

 

UFC Austin Steve Garcia Melquizael Costa
Opening Odds +195 -238
Record 14-5-0 20-6-0
Average Fight Time 5:41 12:03
Height 6'0" 5'10"
Weight 145 lbs 145 lbs
Reach 75" 71"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.85 5.11
Striking Accuracy 56% 45%

 

In the category of takedowns, Steve Garcia is the lesser skilled grappler as he gets a takedown 1.51 times per 3 rounds. Garcia is finishing his takedown attempts on 44% of his tries and is stopping 94% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Costa is finishing his takedowns on 37% of his takedown tries and is stopping 42% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Garcia is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by going for 0.4 finishes per 3 rounds while Costa goes for 0.6 finishes per 3 rounds.

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In his last bout, Steve Garcia went up against Shayilan Nuerdanbieke and wound up taking home the win by a punch to the body in round 2. Nuerdanbieke ended up landing 31 of 63 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Garcia finished this fight landing 50 of 77 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Nuerdanbieke ended up landing 18 of 35, which gave him a percentage of 51%. He landed 15 of 31 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side, Garcia landed 42% of his significant strikes by landing 17 of 40. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he connected on 14 of 37 aimed at the head. 44% of the significant strikes connected on by Nuerdanbieke and 70% of them landed by Garcia were thrown at a distance.

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In the last Octagon appearance for Melquizael Costa, he battled Austin Lingo and wound up getting the victory by unanimous decision in round 3. Lingo ended up connecting on 100% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Costa connected on 93% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Costa landed 45% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 100 of 220. He ended up connecting on 39 of 133 significant strikes aimed at the head. Lingo connected on 39 of 139 significant strikes in that battle. Out of those significant strikes, he landed 24 of 114 directed at the head. Discussing total strikes that he let go in that contest, Lingo ended up landing 39 of 140 while Costa connected on 108 of 236 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other bouts on the card to watch out for

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Rodolfo Bellato meets Ihor Potieria. Bellato comes into this bout holding a record of 11-2-0. The 27-year-old is weighing in at 205 lbs and stands 6'3". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 75". Potieria comes in at 6'3" and steps on the scale at 205 lbs. The southpaw fighter comes into this bout holding a record of 19-4-0. The 27-year-old has a reach of 75". In the grappling category, Rodolfo Bellato is averaging a takedown 0.82 times per 3 rounds and Ihor Potieria takes his opponents to the canvas 0.40 times per 15 minutes. Regarding striking, Bellato is connecting on 5.39 strikes/min and connects on 62% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side we have Ihor Potieria, who tags his opponent on 56% of the strikes that he throws and connects for an average of 4.44 per minute.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Jared Gooden is set to clash with Wellington Turman. Turman holds a career mark of 18-7-0. The 27-year-old weighs 170 lbs and stands 6'0". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 72". Gooden stands in at 6'0" and records a weight of 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a record of 22-9-0. The 29-year-old stretches 77". Concerning wrestling, Wellington Turman curbs 45% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is taking his opponents to the mat on 19% of the times he tries. Gooden is taking his opponents to the mat on 100% of the tries he takes and is able to thwart 68% of all takedown tries against him. With reference to striking, Turman absorbs 3.87 strikes per minute and he deals 3.04 per minute. Gooden, on the other hand, takes 6.76 strikes/minute and is dealing 4.73 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Steve Garcia (+195)

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