Said Nurmagomedov vs Muin Gafurov Pick, 10/21/2023 Predictions UFC 294 Odds

by Tony Sink - 10/17/2023

Said Nurmagomedov vs Muin Gafurov

UFC 294

Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE

Saturday, October 21, 2023

Said Nurmagomedov will face off against Muin Gafurov at UFC 294 on Saturday, October 21, 2023. The moneyline has Nurmagomedov coming in at -225 while Gafurov is priced at +185.

Said Nurmagomedov comes into this bout holding a record of 17-3-0. The 31-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and stands 5'8". The orthodox fighter stretches 70". Muin "Tajik" Gafurov measures 5'7" and is fighting at 135 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a win to his career total of 18-5-0. The 27-year-old has a reach of 68". When talking about significant strikes, Said Nurmagomedov lands 3.54 per min while Muin Gafurov is connecting on 3.07 significant strikes per minute. Nurmagomedov lands 47% of the significant strikes he attempts and Gafurov is connecting on 41%. Concerning their defense in the cage, Nurmagomedov allows 2.15 significant strikes per minute while "Tajik" takes 2.90. Nurmagomedov also prevents 56% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction while Gafurov is able to defend against 47% of the shots thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Said Nurmagomedov ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC 294	Said Nurmagomedov	Muin Gafurov
Opening Odds	-225	+185
Record	17-3-0	18-5-0
Average Fight Time	9:07	15:00
Height	5'8"	5'7"
Weight	135 lbs	135 lbs
Reach	70"	68"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.54	3.07
Striking Accuracy	47%	41%

In the category of takedowns, Said Nurmagomedov is the not as competent as a grappler as he is able to score a takedown 1.03 times per 15 min. Nurmagomedov is getting his opponent to the mat on 16% of his tries and is stuffing 65% of the takedowns his opponents try. Gafurov is getting his opponent to the mat on 27% of his takedown tries and stuffing 62% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Nurmagomedov is the more capable of the two fighters by trying 1.2 subs per 3 rds while Gafurov goes for 0.6 subs per 15 minutes.

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In his last bout, Said Nurmagomedov fought Jonathan Martinez and took a loss on the night by unanimous decision in round 3. Martinez landed 78 of 96 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Nurmagomedov finished this fight landing 101 of 134 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Martinez ended up landing 38 of 55, which gave him a percentage of 69%. He landed 13 of 25 significant strikes to the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Nurmagomedov landed 60% of his significant strikes by landing 47 of 78. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he connected on 25 of 50 pointed at the head. 57% of the significant strikes landed by Martinez and 65% of them landed by Nurmagomedov were tallied at distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Muin Gafurov, he fought John Castaneda and wound up taking the loss by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Castaneda connected on 92% of the significant strikes he took from distance while Gafurov connected on 77% of his significant strikes at distance. Gafurov ended up connecting on 38% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 61 of 157. He ended up landing 45 of 135 significant strikes to the head. Castaneda ended up landing 40 of 88 significant strikes in that battle. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he landed 30 of 73 aimed at the head. When discussing total strikes that he let go, Castaneda was 70 of 121 and Gafurov ended up landing 93 of 204 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other bouts on the card to watch

One more match to look forward to is when Tim Elliott squares up against Muhammad Mokaev. Elliott walks into the cage with a mark of 20-12-1. The 36-year-old is weighing in at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'7". The southpaw fighter has a wingspan of 66". Mokaev comes in at 5'7" and will fight at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a record of 10-0-0 (1 NC). The 23-year-old has a wingspan of 70". Regarding grappling, Tim Elliott takes his opponents to the canvas 3.88 times per 15 minutes and Muhammad Mokaev takes his opponents to the canvas 7.34 times per 3 rounds. In the striking category, Elliott is connecting on 3.47 strikes per min and landing 44% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side of the cage you've got Muhammad Mokaev, who lands 54% of his attempted strikes and is landing 1.14 per minute.

Another must see fight on the night is when Victor Henry is set to take on Javid Basharat. Basharat will be looking to add a win to his career total of 14-0-0. The 28-year-old records a weight of 135 lbs and stands in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 69". Henry measures in at 5'7" and weighs 135 lbs. The switch fighter walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 23-6-0. The 36-year-old has a wingspan of 68". In terms of wrestling, Javid Basharat deflects 85% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is taking his opponents to the mat on 57% of his attempts. Henry is finishing his takedowns on 15% of his attempts and is able to deflect 79% of takedowns his opponents have tried. With regard to striking, Basharat is absorbing 2.30 strikes per minute while he is landing 5.64 per min. Henry, at the same time, is taking 5.98 strikes per min and is landing 8.67 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Said Nurmagomedov (-225)

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Said Nurmagomedov vs Muin Gafurov Pick, 10/21/2023 Predictions UFC 294 Odds

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