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Matt Frevola vs Benoit Saint Denis Pick, 11/11/2023 Predictions UFC 295 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 11/7/2023

Matt Frevola vs Benoit Saint Denis

UFC 295

Madison Square Garden in New York City

Saturday, November 11, 2023

Matt Frevola will face off against Benoit Saint Denis at UFC 295 on Saturday, November 11, 2023. The line has Frevola priced at +185 while Denis is at -225.

Matt "The SteamRolla" Frevola comes into this fight holding a mark of 11-3-1. The 33-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and stands 5'9". The orthodox fighter stretches 71". Benoit "God of War" Saint Denis measures in at 5'11" and tips the scales at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a victory to his career record of 12-1-0 (1 NC). The 27-year-old reaches 73". In terms of significant strikes, Matt Frevola connects on 3.72 per minute and Benoit Saint Denis is connecting on 5.59 significant strikes per min. Frevola connects on 41% of the significant strikes he attempts and Saint Denis lands 52%. When it comes to the fighter's defense, "The SteamRolla" absorbs 3.56 significant strikes per minute while "God of War" allows 5.27. Frevola also deflects 59% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him and Saint Denis prevents 44% of the shots thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Matt Frevola ufc predictions best bet odds

 

UFC 295 Matt Frevola Benoit Saint Denis
Opening Odds +185 -225
Record 11-3-1 12-1-0 (1 NC)
Average Fight Time 7:57 8:16
Height 5'9" 5'11"
Weight 155 lbs 155 lbs
Reach 71" 73"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.72 5.59
Striking Accuracy 41% 52%

 

In terms of grappling, Matt Frevola is the lesser skilled grappler as he gets a takedown 2.26 times per 15 minutes. Frevola is taking his opponents to the canvas on 36% of his tries and thwarting 42% of all takedown tries against him. Saint Denis is getting his opponent to the mat on 36% of the takedowns he attempts and is stuffing 80% of the tries against him. Regarding going for the sub, Frevola is less apt at going for the finish by going for 0.9 submissions per 3 rds while Saint Denis looks to get 1.4 submissions per 3 rounds.

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In his last fight, Matt Frevola squared up with Drew Dober and got a win for the night by way of a punch to the head in round 1. Dober ended up landing 20 of 59 total strikes attempted in that contest. Frevola finished this fight landing 39 of 79 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Dober ended up landing 20 of 59, which gave him a percentage of 33%. He landed 12 of 50 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Frevola landed 46% of his significant strikes by landing 35 of 75. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 26 of 61 pointed at the head. 95% of the significant strikes landed by Dober and 62% of them landed by Frevola were tallied at a distance.

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In the last Octagon appearance for Benoit Saint Denis, he went up against Thiago Moises and took home the win by way of a punch to the head while on the ground in round 2. Moises ended up connecting on 95% of his significant strikes at distance while Denis landed 41% of his significant strikes at distance. Denis connected on 55% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 101 of 182. He connected on 49 of 123 significant strikes to the head. Moises ended up landing 24 of 62 significant strikes in that fight. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he connected on 12 of 46 to the head. Regarding total strikes thrown, Moises connected on 27 of 67 while Denis ended up landing 123 of 210 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights on the card to watch

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Diego Lopes meets Pat Sabatini. Lopes looks to add a win to his record of 22-6-0. The 28-year-old tips the scales at 145 lbs and measures 5'11". The orthodox fighter reaches 72". Sabatini measures in at 5'8" and records a weight of 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a career mark of 18-4-0. The 32-year-old extends his reach 70". In terms of takedowns, Diego Lopes takes his opponents to the mat 0.70 times per 15 minutes and Pat Sabatini takes his opponents to the mat 3.83 times per 15 min. When it comes to striking, Lopes lands an average of 2.12 strikes per min and is landing 50% of his attempted strikes. On the other side of the cage you've got Pat Sabatini, who is connecting on 59% of the strikes he has attempted and connects on 1.95 per min.

One more can't miss bout is when Alessandro Costa is set to take on Steve Erceg. Erceg walks into the cage with a record of 10-1-0. The 28-year-old records a weight of 125 lbs and stands in at 5'8". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 68". Costa measures 5'4" and will fight at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a record of 13-3-0. The 27-year-old reaches 67". Regarding wrestling, Steve Erceg is thwarting 66% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is finishing his takedown attempts on 75% of his tries. Costa is taking his opponents to the mat on 15% of the attempts he tries and defends against 91% of all takedown tries against him. Concerning striking, Erceg absorbs 3.53 strikes/minute while he is dealing 3.60 strikes per minute. Costa, on the contrary, is taking 3.01 strikes/min and lands 3.82 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Matt Frevola (+185)

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