Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington Pick, 12/16/2023 Predictions UFC 296 Odds

Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington

UFC 296

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, December 16, 2023

Leon Edwards will battle Colby Covington at UFC 296 on Saturday, December 16, 2023. The opening line has Edwards at -148 while Covington is at +124.

Leon "Rocky" Edwards steps into the Octagon holding a record of 21-3-0 (1 NC). The 32-year-old weighs in at 170 lbs and stands 6'2". The southpaw fighter extends his reach 74". Colby "Chaos" Covington stands in at 5'11" and weighs in at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 17-3-0. The 35-year-old has an arm span of 72". When talking about significant strikes, Leon Edwards is connecting on 2.80 per minute while Colby Covington connects on 4.10 significant strikes per minute. Edwards lands 53% of the significant strikes he throws while Covington lands 39%. When it comes to defending in the cage, "Rocky" absorbs 2.40 significant strikes per min and "Chaos" allows 3.05. Edwards also stops 53% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way and Covington stops 55% of them.

In the wrestling category, Leon Edwards is not as effective of a grappler as he is averaging a takedown 1.26 times per 3 rounds. Edwards is getting his opponent to the mat on 33% of his attempts and is defending 69% of all takedown attempts. Covington is getting his opponent to the mat on 45% of the takedowns he attempts and stopping 72% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding subbing the opposition, Edwards is the more capable fighter by trying 0.3 finishes per 15 min while Covington tries 0.2 finishes per 15 minutes.

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The last time he fought, Leon Edwards went up against Kamaru Usman and took home the win by way of majority decision in round 5. Usman landed 113 of 232 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Edwards walked away from this fight having landed 123 of 164 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Usman ended up landing 87 of 205, giving him a percentage of 42%. He ended up landing 57 of 163 significant strikes directed at the head. Statistically, Edwards ended up landing 74% of his significant strikes by landing 120 of 161. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he was 34 of 69 pointed at the head. 74% of the significant strikes connected on by Usman and 92% of them connected on by Edwards were tallied at a distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Colby Covington, he went up against Jorge Masvidal and wound up getting the win by unanimous decision in round 5. Masvidal ended up landing 82% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Covington ended up connecting on 67% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Covington ended up landing 46% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 94 of 201. He connected on 84 of 190 significant strikes aimed at the head. Masvidal connected on 67 of 140 significant strikes in that fight. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 38 of 94 directed at the head. When discussing total strikes that he let go in that contest, Masvidal landed 90 of 166 and Covington connected on 218 of 338 total strikes.

Other bouts on the card to watch

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Alexandre Pantoja faces off against Brandon Royval. Pantoja looks to add a win to his career record of 26-5-0. The 33-year-old is weighing in at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'5". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 67". Royval measures 5'9" and steps on the scale at 125 lbs. The southpaw fighter has a mark of 15-6-0. The 31-year-old has a wingspan of 68". In the grappling category, Alexandre Pantoja scores a takedown 1.75 times per 15 min and Brandon Royval takes his opponents to the mat 0.66 times per 3 rounds. In terms of striking, Pantoja connects for an average of 4.41 strikes/min and connecting on 48% out of all the strikes he attempts. The other guy in this fight is Brandon Royval, who is connecting on 38% of the strikes that he throws and connects for an average of 3.45 per min.

One more can't miss bout is when Stephen Thompson is set to fight Shavkat Rakhmonov. Rakhmonov will be looking to add a victory to his total of 17-0-0. The 29-year-old weighs 170 lbs and measures 6'1". The orthodox fighter stretches 77". Thompson stands 6'0" and steps on the scale at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his total of 17-6-1. The 40-year-old has a wingspan of 75". Concerning grappling, Shavkat Rakhmonov prevents 85% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is taking his opponents down on 33% of his attempts. Thompson is taking his opponents to the mat on 41% of his attempts and stops 64% of all takedown tries against him. In the category of striking, Rakhmonov absorbs 2.61 strikes/minute and he is landing 4.45 per minute. Thompson, notwithstanding, takes 3.04 strikes per min and connects on 4.20 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Leon Edwards (-148)

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