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Free Picks » UFC Picks » Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev Pick, 3/18/2023 Predictions UFC 286 Odds

Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev Pick, 3/18/2023 Predictions UFC 286 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 3/14/2023

Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev

UFC 286

The O2 in London, England

Saturday, March 18, 2023

Justin Gaethje will face off against Rafael Fiziev at UFC 286 on Saturday, March 18, 2023. The opening line has Gaethje priced at +180 while Fiziev is priced at -225.

Justin "The Highlight" Gaethje will be looking to add a win to his career total of 23-4-0. The 34-year-old is fighting at 155 lbs and comes in at 5'11". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 70". Rafael "Ataman" Fiziev measures in at 5'8" and tips the scales at 155 lbs. The switch fighter steps into the Octagon with a record of 12-1-0. The 30-year-old has an arm span of 71". With respect to significant strikes, Justin Gaethje lands 7.46 per min and Rafael Fiziev is landing 4.81 significant strikes per min. Gaethje lands 60% of the significant strikes he attempts while Fiziev is landing 50%. Regarding defending in the cage, "The Highlight" takes 7.85 significant strikes per minute while "Ataman" takes 4.86. Gaethje also prevents 55% of the significant strikes that are directed at him while Fiziev thwarts 50% of the shots thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Justin Gaethje ufc predictions best bet odds

 

UFC 286 Justin Gaethje Rafael Fiziev
Opening Odds +180 -225
Record 23-4-0 12-1-0
Average Fight Time 9:37 11:53
Height 5'11" 5'8"
Weight 155 lbs 155 lbs
Reach 70" 71"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 7.46 4.81
Striking Accuracy 60% 50%

 

Concerning takedowns, Justin Gaethje is averaging more takedowns in the cage as he takes his opponents down 0.40 times per 15 min. Gaethje is scoring a takedown on 15% of the times he tries and is stuffing 75% of the takedowns his opponents try. Fiziev is finishing his takedown attempts on 40% of the takedowns he attempts and is stuffing 92% of all takedowns attempted on him. In terms of subbing the opposition, Gaethje is the more experienced of the two fighters by trying 0.6 finishes per 3 rounds while Fiziev attempts 0.4 finishes per 3 rounds.

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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Justin Gaethje squared up with Charles Oliveira and ended up taking the loss via rear naked choke in round 1. Oliveira landed 33 of 52 total strikes that he let go in that contest. Gaethje walked away from this fight having landed 21 of 33 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Oliveira ended up landing 30 of 47, which gave him a percentage of 63%. He ended up landing 18 of 32 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Gaethje landed 63% of his significant strikes by sticking 21 of 33. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he landed 13 of 22 aimed at the head. 66% of the significant strikes connected on by Oliveira and 71% of them connected on by Gaethje were tallied at distance.

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In the last Octagon appearance for Rafael Fiziev, he battled Rafael Dos Anjos and wound up taking home the win via a punch to the head in round 5. Anjos ended up landing 92% of his significant strikes at distance while Fiziev ended up connecting on 96% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Fiziev landed 40% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 64 of 159. He landed 32 of 102 significant strikes directed at the head. Anjos landed 54 of 110 significant strikes in that fight. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he ended up landing 31 of 80 to the head. In relation to the total strikes thrown in this fight, Anjos was 90 of 162 while Fiziev landed 92 of 192 total strikes.

Other bouts to watch

One more match to look forward to is when Gunnar Nelson squares up against Bryan Barberena. Nelson steps into the cage with a record of 18-5-1. The 34-year-old will fight at 170 lbs and measures 5'11". The switch fighter has a reach of 72". Barberena measures 6'0" and weighs 170 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the Octagon with a record of 18-9-0. The 33-year-old has a reach of 72". In the grappling category, Gunnar Nelson takes his opponents down 1.86 times per 15 minutes and Bryan Barberena gets a takedown 0.16 times per 15 minutes. Regarding striking, Nelson is landing 1.83 strikes per min and is connecting on 60% of the strikes that he attempts. The other guy in this fight is Bryan Barberena, who is connecting on 48% of his attempted strikes and is landing 5.92 per min.

One more can't miss bout is when Roman Dolidze is set to enter the Octagon against Marvin Vettori. Vettori looks to add a win to his career total of 18-6-1. The 29-year-old is fighting at 185 lbs and stands in at 6'0". The southpaw fighter has an arm span of 74". Dolidze comes in at 6'2" and will fight at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a mark of 12-1-0. The 34-year-old extends his reach 76". Concerning wrestling, Marvin Vettori is able to stop 74% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is taking his opponents to the mat on 44% of his tries. Dolidze is taking his opponents down on 52% of the attempts he tries and is able to curb 33% of all takedown attempts. With reference to striking, Vettori takes 3.58 strikes per min and he connects on 4.20 strikes/minute. Dolidze, on the contrary, is taking 2.06 strikes per minute and is dishing out 2.62 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Rafael Fiziev (-225)

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