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Jessica Andrade vs Mackenzie Dern Pick, 11/11/2023 Predictions UFC 295 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 11/7/2023

Jessica Andrade vs Mackenzie Dern

UFC 295

Madison Square Garden in New York City

Saturday, November 11, 2023

Jessica Andrade will face off against Mackenzie Dern at UFC 295 on Saturday, November 11, 2023. The opening moneyline has Andrade at +164 while Dern is priced at -198.

Jessica "Bate Estaca" Andrade comes into this bout with a mark of 24-12-0. The 32-year-old tips the scales at 115 lbs and measures 5'1". The orthodox fighter stretches 62". Mackenzie Dern stands in at 5'4" and tips the scales at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight with a mark of 13-3-0. The 30-year-old extends her reach 63". In terms of significant strikes, Jessica Andrade connects on 6.68 per minute and Mackenzie Dern connects on 3.36 significant strikes per min. Andrade is landing 50% of the significant strikes she attempts and Dern is landing 40%. In terms of defending themselves, "Bate Estaca" takes 5.34 significant strikes per minute while Dern allows 4.09. Andrade also defends 54% of the significant strikes her opponents throw at her while Dern is able to thwart 51% of the shots thrown in her direction.

ufc picks Jessica Andrade ufc predictions best bet odds

 

UFC 295 Jessica Andrade Mackenzie Dern
Opening Odds +164 -198
Record 24-12-0 13-3-0
Average Fight Time 9:13 13:30
Height 5'1" 5'4"
Weight 115 lbs 115 lbs
Reach 62" 63"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 6.68 3.36
Striking Accuracy 50% 40%

 

Concerning takedowns, Jessica Andrade is the more efficient grappler as she takes her opponents to the mat 2.54 times per 3 rounds. Andrade is getting her opponent to the mat on 54% of her tries and is stuffing 70% of all takedowns attempted by her opposition. Dern is scoring a takedown on 15% of her takedown tries and is stuffing 40% of the attempts against her. Regarding subbing the opposition, Andrade is the lesser skilled of the two fighters by trying 0.4 finishes per 15 minutes while Dern looks to get 1.5 finishes per 15 min.

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In her previous fight, Jessica Andrade went up against Tatiana Suarez and took a loss on the night via a guillotine choke in round 2. Suarez ended up landing 25 of 51 total strikes that she let go in that fight. Andrade ended the night having landed 13 of 31 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Suarez ended up landing 23 of 49, giving her a percentage of 46%. She finished the fight landing 3 of 20 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Andrade landed 37% of the significant strikes she threw by landing 11 of 29. Of all the significant strikes, she landed 2 of 14 aimed at the head. 56% of the significant strikes connected on by Suarez and 72% of them connected on by Andrade were tallied at distance.

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In the last bout for Mackenzie Dern, she faced off with Angela Hill and wound up getting the victory by way of unanimous decision in round 5. Hill landed 53% of the significant strikes she took from distance and Dern ended up connecting on 46% of the significant strikes she attempted at distance. Dern landed 60% of the significant strikes she attempted by landing 126 of 210. She connected on 104 of 186 significant strikes aimed at the head. Hill ended up connecting on 66 of 108 significant strikes in that battle. Of those significant strikes, she ended up connecting on 27 of 65 directed at the head. In relation to total strikes thrown, Hill was 94 of 142 while Dern ended up connecting on 247 of 340 of the strikes she threw in total.

Other fights on the card to watch

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Tabatha Ricci squares up against Loopy Godinez. Ricci will be looking to add a victory to her total of 9-1-0. The 28-year-old steps on the scale at 115 lbs and stands in at 5'1". The orthodox fighter stretches 61". Godinez measures in at 5'2" and tips the scales at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a mark of 11-3-0. The 30-year-old reaches 61". In terms of takedowns, Tabatha Ricci takes her opponents to the mat 4.23 times per 3 rounds and Loopy Godinez is able to score a takedown 3.82 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Ricci connects on 4.12 strikes per minute and is connecting on 37% of her attempted strikes. On the other side we have Loopy Godinez, who connects on 50% of the strikes she has thrown and connects for an average of 4.03 per minute.

One more can't miss bout is when Alex Pereira is set to face off against Jiri Prochazka. Prochazka looks to add a victory to his career total of 29-3-1. The 31-year-old is fighting at 205 lbs and stands in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter stretches 80". Pereira stands in at 6'4" and will fight at 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career record of 8-2-0. The 36-year-old has a wingspan of 79". Regarding wrestling, Jiri Prochazka is able to defend against 68% of his opponents' takedown attempts and is taking his opponents to the canvas on 85% of his tries. Pereira is finishing his takedowns on 85% of his tries and is able to defend against 70% of all takedown tries against him. In the matter of striking, Prochazka is absorbing 5.40 strikes/minute while he deals 5.77 per minute. Pereira, on the other hand, is absorbing 3.70 strikes per min and lands 5.11 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Jessica Andrade (+164)

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