Jake Matthews vs Miguel Baeza Pick, 7/29/2023 Predictions UFC 291 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 7/24/2023

Jake Matthews vs Miguel Baeza

UFC 291

Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, UT

Saturday, July 29, 2023

Jake Matthews will face off against Miguel Baeza at UFC 291 on Saturday, July 29, 2023. The opening odds have Matthews coming in at -185 while Baeza is at +150.

Jake "The Celtic Kid" Matthews looks to add a win to his record of 18-6-0. The 28-year-old weighs in at 170 lbs and comes in at 5'11". The orthodox fighter reaches 73". Miguel "Caramel Thunder" Baeza measures 6'2" and records a weight of 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a mark of 10-3-0. The 30-year-old stretches 74". With respect to significant strikes, Jake Matthews is landing 3.09 per min while Miguel Baeza is connecting on 4.88 significant strikes per min. Matthews is connecting on 44% of the significant strikes he tries while Baeza is landing 49%. Regarding defense, "The Celtic Kid" absorbs 2.24 significant strikes per minute and "Caramel Thunder" allows 5.10. Matthews also prevents 61% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction while Baeza defends against 53% of the strikes thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Jake Matthews predictions best bet odds

UFC 291	Jake Matthews	Miguel Baeza
Opening Odds	-185	+150
Record	18-6-0	10-3-0
Average Fight Time	11:24	9:43
Height	5'11"	6'2"
Weight	170 lbs	170 lbs
Reach	73"	74"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.09	4.88
Striking Accuracy	44%	49%

In the grappling category, Jake Matthews is the more efficient wrestler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 1.78 times per 15 minutes. Matthews is taking his opponents to the canvas on 41% of his attempts and is stuffing 60% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Baeza is taking his opponents to the canvas on 28% of the takedowns he attempts and is stuffing 85% of all takedowns attempted on him. When it comes to subbing the opposition, Matthews is the lesser skilled fighter by going for 0.6 finishes per 3 rounds while Baeza attempts 1.8 finishes per 3 rounds.

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In his last bout, Jake Matthews went up against Matthew Semelsberger and wound up losing the fight by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Semelsberger ended up landing 54 of 129 total strikes attempted in that contest. Matthews ended the night having landed 74 of 140 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Semelsberger landed 45 of 116, giving him a percentage of 38%. He finished the fight landing 34 of 89 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Matthews ended up landing 35% of his significant strikes by sticking 32 of 89. Of those significant strikes, he was 23 of 77 pointed at the head. 57% of the significant strikes landed by Semelsberger and 93% of them landed by Matthews were tallied at a distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Miguel Baeza, he went up against Andre Fialho and took a loss on the night by a punch to the head in round 1. Fialho landed 78% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Baeza ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Baeza landed 41% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 24 of 58. He connected on 15 of 48 significant strikes aimed at the head. Fialho ended up landing 32 of 56 significant strikes in that fight. Out of those significant strikes, he ended up landing 19 of 41 to the head. Discussing total strikes that he let go, Fialho was 32 of 56 while Baeza ended up landing 24 of 58 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts on the card to watch out for

Another fight to keep an eye on is when CJ Vergara goes up against Vinicius Salvador. Vergara steps into the cage holding a record of 11-4-1. The 32-year-old tips the scales at 125 lbs and stands in at 5'6". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 68". Salvador measures 5'7" and is fighting at 125 lbs. The southpaw fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 14-5-0. The 27-year-old stretches 70". In terms of takedowns, CJ Vergara takes his opponents to the mat 0.30 times per 15 minutes and Vinicius Salvador takes his opponents to the mat 0.62 times per 3 rounds. In terms of striking, Vergara tags his opponents 5.63 strikes per min and connecting on 56% of his attempted strikes. On the other side of the cage we have Vinicius Salvador, who is connecting on 41% of the strikes he has attempted and is connecting on 5.17 per min.

Another must see fight on the night is when Uros Medic is set to face off with Matthew Semelsberger. Semelsberger walks into the cage with a mark of 11-5-0. The 30-year-old weighs 170 lbs and measures in at 6'1". The switch fighter stretches 75". Medic stands 6'1" and will fight at 170 lbs. The southpaw fighter walks into the cage with a mark of 8-1-0. The 30-year-old extends his reach 71". In terms of grappling, Matthew Semelsberger stops 52% of the takedowns his opponents try and is finishing his takedown attempts on 70% of the times he tries. Medic is finishing his takedowns on 15% of his attempts and is able to deflect 66% of all takedown attempts. With regard to striking, Semelsberger is absorbing 4.21 strikes/min while he is connecting on 4.05 strikes/min. Medic, notwithstanding, is absorbing 3.76 strikes per minute and is landing 8.14 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take Jake Matthews (-185)

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Jake Matthews vs Miguel Baeza Pick, 7/29/2023 Predictions UFC 291 Odds

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