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Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis Pick, 11/4/2023 Predictions UFC Sao Paulo Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 10/30/2023

Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis

UFC Sao Paulo

Ibirapuera Gymnasium in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Saturday, November 4, 2023

Jailton Almeida will face off with Derrick Lewis at UFC Sao Paulo on Saturday, November 4, 2023. The opening line has Almeida at -188 while Lewis is priced at +360.

Jailton "Malhadinho" Almeida looks to add a victory to his career total of 19-2-0. The 32-year-old is fighting at 205 lbs and comes in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter reaches 79". Derrick "The Black Beast" Lewis measures 6'3" and is weighing in at 260 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage holding a record of 27-11-0 (1 NC). The 38-year-old extends his reach 79". In the category of significant strikes, Jailton Almeida connects on 3.81 per min while Derrick Lewis is connecting on 2.60 significant strikes per min. Almeida is connecting on 64% of the significant strikes he tries while Lewis is connecting on 50%. Concerning their defense in the cage, "Malhadinho" takes 0.30 significant strikes per minute and "The Black Beast" takes 2.59. Almeida also stops 25% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way while Lewis stops 41% of the shots thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Jailton Almeida ufc predictions best bet odds

 

UFC Sao Paulo Jailton Almeida Derrick Lewis
Opening Odds -188 +360
Record 19-2-0 27-11-0 (1 NC)
Average Fight Time 5:05 8:30
Height 6'3" 6'3"
Weight 205 lbs 260 lbs
Reach 79" 79"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.81 2.60
Striking Accuracy 64% 50%

 

Regarding takedowns, Jailton Almeida is the more efficient grappler as he takes his opponents to the mat 6.40 times per 15 minutes. Almeida is taking his opponents to the canvas on 68% of his attempts and thwarting 50% of the attempts against him. Lewis is scoring a takedown on 28% of his takedown tries and is stopping 52% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. In terms of going for the sub, Almeida is the more apt fighter by going for 2.5 submissions per 15 minutes while Lewis goes for 0.8 submissions per 15 min.

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In his previous bout, Jailton Almeida went up against Jairzinho Rozenstruik and took home the win by rear naked choke in round 1. Rozenstruik ended up landing 3 of 6 total strikes that he threw in that fight. Almeida walked away from this fight having landed 14 of 19 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Rozenstruik ended up landing 0 of 2, which gave him a percentage of 0%. He ended up landing 0 of 2 significant strikes directed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Almeida ended up landing 57% of his significant strikes by landing 4 of 7. Out of those significant strikes, he landed 3 of 5 pointed at the head. 33% of the significant strikes landed by Rozenstruik and 0% of them connected on by Almeida were tallied at distance.

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In the last bout for Derrick Lewis, he squared up with Marcos Rogerio de Lima and ended up getting the victory by a punch to the head while on the ground in round 1. Lima ended up connecting on 0% of the significant strikes he took from distance while Lewis connected on 5% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Lewis ended up connecting on 51% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 17 of 33. He connected on 16 of 32 significant strikes to the head. Lima ended up connecting on 1 of 1 significant strikes in that contest. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he connected on 1 of 1 directed at the head. In relation to total strikes that he let go in that fight, Lima connected on 2 of 2 and Lewis was 20 of 36 of all the strikes he threw.

Other bouts to watch

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Gabriel Bonfim squares up against Nicolas Dalby. Bonfim will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 15-0-0. The 26-year-old weighs in at 170 lbs and measures 6'1". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 72". Dalby measures in at 5'11" and records a weight of 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his total of 22-4-1 (2 NC). The 38-year-old stretches 74". When it comes to grappling, Gabriel Bonfim takes his opponents to the canvas 4.80 times per 3 rds while Nicolas Dalby is averaging a takedown 1.18 times per 3 rds. In terms of striking, Bonfim lands 6.08 strikes per min and lands 37% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side of the cage we have Nicolas Dalby, who is landing 43% of the strikes he attempts and is connecting on 3.93 per min.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Don'Tale Mayes is set to square up in the Octagon against Rodrigo Nascimento. Nascimento looks to add a win to his total of 10-1-0 (1 NC). The 30-year-old weighs in at 246 lbs and comes in at 6'2". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 80". Mayes stands in at 6'6" and is weighing in at 260 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 10-5-0 (1 NC). The 31-year-old has an arm span of 81". In terms of wrestling, Rodrigo Nascimento is able to curb 75% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is scoring a takedown on 41% of his attempts. Mayes is finishing his takedown tries on 46% of his tries and stops 56% of all takedown tries against him. Concerning striking, Nascimento absorbs 4.60 strikes/minute and he is connecting on 4.20 strikes per min. Mayes, in contrast, is absorbing 3.73 strikes per minute and is dishing out 3.39 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Jailton Almeida (-188)

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