Ismael Bonfim vs Vinc Pichel Pick, 11/4/2023 Predictions UFC Sao Paulo Odds

Ismael Bonfim vs Vinc Pichel

UFC Sao Paulo

Ibirapuera Gymnasium in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Saturday, November 4, 2023

Ismael Bonfim will face off with Vinc Pichel at UFC Sao Paulo on Saturday, November 4, 2023. The opening line has Bonfim priced at -440 while Pichel is priced at +340.

Ismael "Marreta" Bonfim will be looking to add a win to his career total of 19-4-0. The 27-year-old is weighing in at 155 lbs and measures 5'8". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 71". Vinc "From Hell" Pichel stands in at 5'10" and will fight at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight holding a mark of 14-3-0. The 40-year-old extends his reach 72". Regarding significant strikes, Ismael Bonfim is connecting on 4.91 per minute while Vinc Pichel is connecting on 3.56 significant strikes per min. Bonfim lands 57% of the significant strikes he tries and Pichel is landing 47%. Concerning their defense in the cage, "Marreta" allows 2.66 significant strikes per minute while "From Hell" allows 2.50. Bonfim also prevents 76% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way while Pichel deflects 58% of the strikes thrown his way.

Regarding wrestling, Ismael Bonfim is not as efficient of a wrestler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 1.11 times per 3 rds. Bonfim is scoring a takedown on 28% of his attempts and stuffing 81% of all takedown attempts. Pichel is scoring a takedown on 54% of the takedowns he attempts and stuffing 23% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding going for the sub, Bonfim is the more apt fighter by going for 0.7 submissions per 3 rds while Pichel tries 0.2 submissions per 15 minutes.

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In his previous fight, Ismael Bonfim went up against Benoit Saint Denis and ended up walking away in defeat by way of rear naked choke in round 1. Denis landed 35 of 58 total strikes that he let go in that contest. Bonfim walked away from this fight having landed 15 of 26 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Denis ended up landing 13 of 33, which means his percentage was 39%. He finished the fight landing 3 of 18 significant strikes directed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Bonfim landed 58% of his significant strikes by connecting on 14 of 24. Out of those significant strikes, he connected on 9 of 19 to the head. 84% of the significant strikes connected on by Denis and 57% of them connected on by Bonfim were done at a distance.

In the last bout for Vinc Pichel, he squared up with Mark Madsen and took a loss on the night via unanimous decision in round 3. Madsen ended up connecting on 82% of his significant strikes at distance and Pichel ended up landing 77% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Pichel ended up landing 55% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 68 of 123. He ended up landing 32 of 78 significant strikes aimed at the head. Madsen landed 39 of 87 significant strikes in that contest. Out of those significant strikes, he connected on 27 of 75 to the head. In regard to total strikes thrown, Madsen connected on 57 of 110 while Pichel was 88 of 144 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other bouts on the card to watch out for

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Elves Brener faces off against Esteban Ribovics. Brener comes into this bout with a record of 15-3-0. The 26-year-old is fighting at 155 lbs and stands 5'10". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 72". Ribovics stands 5'10" and weighs 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage holding a record of 12-1-0. The 27-year-old stretches 69". Regarding grappling, Elves Brener gets his opposition to the mat 1.06 times per 3 rounds while Esteban Ribovics gets a takedown 0.95 times per 3 rds. Regarding striking, Brener lands an average of 4.74 strikes per minute and landing 46% of the strikes that he throws. The other fighter in this bout is Esteban Ribovics, who connects on 52% of the strikes he has attempted and is connecting on 6.16 per min.

Another bout to watch is when Daniel Marcos is set to battle Victor Hugo. Hugo has a career record of 24-4-0. The 30-year-old records a weight of 135 lbs and comes in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 71". Marcos comes in at 5'7" and will fight at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career mark of 15-0-0. The 30-year-old reaches 69". Regarding wrestling, Victor Hugo is preventing 66% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is finishing his takedown tries on 50% of the times he tries. Marcos is taking his opponents to the mat on 50% of the tries he takes and defends against 89% of the takedowns his opponents try. In the category of striking, Hugo is absorbing 1.10 strikes per min while he is dishing out 1.24 per minute. Marcos, moreover, absorbs 3.70 strikes per min and is connecting on 4.88 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Vinc Pichel (+340)

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