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Free Picks » UFC Picks » Irene Aldana vs Karol Rosa Pick, 12/16/2023 Predictions UFC 296 Odds

Irene Aldana vs Karol Rosa Pick, 12/16/2023 Predictions UFC 296 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 12/12/2023

Irene Aldana vs Karol Rosa

UFC 296

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, December 16, 2023

Irene Aldana will enter the Octagon with Karol Rosa at UFC 296 on Saturday, December 16, 2023. The opening line has Aldana priced at -218 while Rosa is at +180.

Irene Aldana walks into the cage with a record of 14-7-0. The 35-year-old steps on the scale at 135 lbs and measures 5'9". The orthodox fighter reaches 68". Karol Rosa measures 5'5" and is weighing in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout with a record of 17-5-0. The 28-year-old extends her reach 67". In the category of significant strikes, Irene Aldana is connecting on 4.86 per minute while Karol Rosa lands 5.43 significant strikes per minute. Aldana connects on 39% of the significant strikes she attempts and Rosa lands 55%. When it comes to defending themselves, Aldana allows 5.71 significant strikes per min while Rosa takes 4.17. Aldana also prevents 59% of the significant strikes her opponents throw at her while Rosa is able to stop 48% of the shots thrown.

ufc picks Irene Aldana ufc predictions best bet odds

 

UFC 296 Irene Aldana Karol Rosa
Opening Odds -218 +180
Record 14-7-0 17-5-0
Average Fight Time 14:36 15:00
Height 5'9" 5'5"
Weight 135 lbs 135 lbs
Reach 68" 67"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.86 5.43
Striking Accuracy 39% 55%

 

Regarding takedowns, Irene Aldana is the not as competent as a grappler as she takes her opponents to the canvas 0.17 times per 15 minutes. Aldana is getting her opponent to the mat on 50% of her tries and is stopping 75% of the takedowns her opponents try. Rosa is scoring a takedown on 47% of the takedowns she attempts and is defending 68% of the attempts against her. Regarding going for the sub, Aldana is less apt at going for the finish by going for 0.3 finishes per 15 minutes while Rosa tries 0.9 finishes per 3 rounds.

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The last time she stepped into the Octagon, Irene Aldana squared up with Amanda Nunes and was defeated via unanimous decision in round 5. Nunes ended up landing 196 of 323 total strikes that she threw in that contest. Aldana finished this fight landing 57 of 159 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Nunes ended up landing 142 of 267, which gave her a percentage of 53%. She landed 97 of 198 significant strikes aimed at the head. Statistically, Aldana landed 28% of her significant strikes by sticking 41 of 143. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, she was 25 of 118 to the head. 80% of the significant strikes connected on by Nunes and 87% of them landed by Aldana were tallied at distance.

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In the last fight for Karol Rosa, she fought Yana Santos and took home the win by way of split decision in round 3. Santos landed 66% of the significant strikes she tried at a distance while Rosa ended up connecting on 72% of the significant strikes she attempted at distance. Rosa ended up connecting on 50% of her significant strikes attempted by connecting on 66 of 130. She landed 38 of 95 significant strikes aimed at the head. Santos connected on 95 of 156 significant strikes in that battle. Of those significant strikes, she ended up connecting on 20 of 69 aimed at the head. In relation to total strikes attempted in that fight, Santos landed 151 of 213 while Rosa connected on 117 of 181 of all the strikes she attempted.

Other bouts to watch

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Casey O'Neill fights Ariane Lipski. O'Neill has a career mark of 9-1-0. The 26-year-old tips the scales at 125 lbs and measures 5'6". The orthodox fighter extends her reach 69". Lipski measures 5'6" and steps on the scale at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to her career record of 16-8-0. The 29-year-old extends her reach 67". Regarding grappling, Casey O'Neill gets a takedown 1.96 times per 3 rounds while Ariane Lipski takes her opponents to the mat 0.54 times per 15 min. In terms of striking, O'Neill lands an average of 8.77 strikes/minute and is connecting on 55% of the strikes that she throws. On the other side of the cage we have Ariane Lipski, who connects on 39% of the strikes she has thrown and connects on 3.94 per minute.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Colby Covington is set to battle Leon Edwards. Edwards steps into the Octagon holding a record of 21-3-0 (1 NC). The 32-year-old weighs in at 170 lbs and stands 6'2". The southpaw fighter extends his reach 74". Covington stands in at 5'11" and weighs in at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 17-3-0. The 35-year-old has an arm span of 72". Regarding wrestling, Leon Edwards stops 69% of the takedowns his opponents try and is taking his opponents to the canvas on 33% of his tries. Covington is finishing his takedowns on 45% of the tries he takes and is able to curb 72% of all takedown tries against him. In the category of striking, Edwards absorbs 2.40 strikes/minute and he is connecting on 2.80 per min. Covington, on the other hand, is taking 3.05 strikes per minute and deals 4.10 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Irene Aldana (-218)

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