Gunnar Nelson vs Bryan Barberena Pick, 3/18/2023 Predictions UFC 286 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 3/14/2023

Gunnar Nelson vs Bryan Barberena

UFC 286

The O2 in London, England

Saturday, March 18, 2023

Gunnar Nelson will battle Bryan Barberena at UFC 286 on Saturday, March 18, 2023. The opening moneyline has Nelson coming in at -350 while Barberena is at +310.

Gunnar "Gunni" Nelson steps into the cage with a record of 18-5-1. The 34-year-old will fight at 170 lbs and measures 5'11". The switch fighter has a reach of 72". Bryan "Bam Bam" Barberena measures 6'0" and weighs 170 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the Octagon with a record of 18-9-0. The 33-year-old has a reach of 72". Regarding significant strikes, Gunnar Nelson is connecting on 1.83 per min and Bryan Barberena is connecting on 5.92 significant strikes per min. Nelson connects on 60% of the significant strikes he attempts while Barberena is connecting on 48%. In terms of defending in the Octagon, "Gunni" allows 3.05 significant strikes per min and "Bam Bam" allows 4.90. Nelson also stops 50% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt and Barberena stops 44% of the strikes thrown his way.

ufc picks Gunnar Nelson predictions best bet odds

UFC 286	Gunnar Nelson	Bryan Barberena
Opening Odds	-350	+310
Record	18-5-1	18-9-0
Average Fight Time	10:24	12:05
Height	5'11"	6'0"
Weight	170 lbs	170 lbs
Reach	72"	72"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	1.83	5.92
Striking Accuracy	60%	48%

In the wrestling category, Gunnar Nelson is the more effective grappler as he takes his opponents down 1.86 times per 15 min. Nelson is finishing his takedown attempts on 60% of his attempts and thwarting 66% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Barberena is finishing his takedown tries on 25% of his takedown tries and stopping 54% of the tries against him. In terms of going for the submission, Nelson is the more skilled fighter by attempting 0.9 finishes per 3 rounds while Barberena attempts 0.3 finishes per 3 rounds.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Gunnar Nelson went up against Takashi Sato and ended up winning this fight by unanimous decision in round 3. Sato landed 16 of 34 total strikes attempted in that contest. Nelson finished this fight landing 140 of 166 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Sato ended up landing 9 of 23, giving him a percentage of 39%. He landed 4 of 16 significant strikes to the head. On the other side, Nelson landed 80% of his significant strikes by sticking 44 of 55. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he landed 36 of 47 to the head. 100% of the significant strikes connected on by Sato and 22% of them landed by Nelson were done at a distance.

In the last fight for Bryan Barberena, he squared up with Rafael Dos Anjos and was defeated via rear naked choke in round 2. Anjos ended up connecting on 15% of his significant strikes at distance and Barberena ended up connecting on 71% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Barberena connected on 48% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 14 of 29. He ended up connecting on 6 of 18 significant strikes directed at the head. Anjos landed 20 of 25 significant strikes in that contest. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he ended up landing 3 of 8 to the head. In terms of total strikes thrown, Anjos connected on 36 of 41 and Barberena landed 61 of 79 total strikes.

Other fights to keep an eye on

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Marvin Vettori battles Roman Dolidze. Vettori looks to add a win to his career total of 18-6-1. The 29-year-old is fighting at 185 lbs and stands in at 6'0". The southpaw fighter has an arm span of 74". Dolidze comes in at 6'2" and will fight at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a mark of 12-1-0. The 34-year-old extends his reach 76". In terms of takedowns, Marvin Vettori is able to score a takedown 1.89 times per 15 min while Roman Dolidze gets a takedown 2.12 times per 3 rounds. In the striking category, Vettori connects for an average of 4.20 strikes per minute and lands 44% of the strikes that he attempts. The other guy in this fight is Roman Dolidze, who lands 47% of his attempted strikes and connects on 2.62 per minute.

One more can't miss bout is when Makwan Amirkhani is set to square up in the Octagon with Jack Shore. Shore will be looking to add a victory to his record of 16-1-0. The 28-year-old weighs 135 lbs and measures 5'8". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 71". Amirkhani measures 5'10" and records a weight of 145 lbs. The southpaw fighter walks into the Octagon with a mark of 17-8-0. The 34-year-old extends his reach 72". Regarding takedowns, Jack Shore curbs 80% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is getting his opponent to the mat on 39% of his attempts. Amirkhani is finishing his takedowns on 43% of his tries and curbs 38% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. In the matter of striking, Shore is taking 2.34 strikes/min while he is dealing 3.96 strikes/min. Amirkhani, on the contrary, takes 2.98 strikes/min and is dishing out 1.35 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take Gunnar Nelson (-350)

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Gunnar Nelson vs Bryan Barberena Pick, 3/18/2023 Predictions UFC 286 Odds

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