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Free Picks » UFC Picks » Derek Brunson vs Dricus Du Plessis Pick, 3/4/2023 Predictions UFC 285 Odds

Derek Brunson vs Dricus Du Plessis Pick, 3/4/2023 Predictions UFC 285 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 2/28/2023

Derek Brunson vs Dricus Du Plessis

UFC 285

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, March 4, 2023

Derek Brunson will enter the Octagon against Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 285 on Saturday, March 4, 2023. The opening line has Brunson priced at +200 while Plessis is coming in at -240.

Derek "The One" Brunson comes into this fight with a mark of 23-8-0. The 39-year-old tips the scales at 185 lbs and stands 6'1". The southpaw fighter stretches 77". Dricus "Stillknocks" Du Plessis measures 6'1" and records a weight of 185 lbs. The switch fighter will be looking to add a victory to his record of 18-2-0. The 29-year-old has a wingspan of 76". Regarding significant strikes, Derek Brunson is connecting on 3.50 per min and Dricus Du Plessis lands 6.62 significant strikes per min. Brunson is landing 47% of the significant strikes he attempts and Du Plessis is connecting on 53%. Regarding defending in the Octagon, "The One" allows 2.84 significant strikes per minute and "Stillknocks" takes 3.73. Brunson also stops 52% of the significant strikes that are directed at him while Du Plessis is able to curb 52% of the shots thrown his way.

Derek Brunson UFC

 

UFC 285 Derek Brunson Dricus Du Plessis
Opening Odds +200 -240
Record 23-8-0 18-2-0
Average Fight Time 8:33 9:27
Height 6'1" 6'1"
Weight 185 lbs 185 lbs
Reach 77" 76"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.50 6.62
Striking Accuracy 47% 53%

 

In the wrestling category, Derek Brunson is the more skilled grappler as he is able to score a takedown 3.23 times per 15 min. Brunson is getting his opponent to the mat on 33% of the times he tries and stuffing 89% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Du Plessis is finishing his takedown attempts on 47% of his takedown tries and thwarting 50% of the attempts against him. In terms of subbing opponents, Brunson is the lesser skilled fighter by trying 0.6 subs per 3 rds while Du Plessis goes for 1.2 subs per 15 min.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Derek Brunson faced Jared Cannonier and walked away with a loss by an elbow to the head in round 2. Cannonier ended up landing 61 of 96 total strikes that he let go in that contest. Brunson ended the night having landed 48 of 103 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Cannonier landed 55 of 89, which gave him a percentage of 61%. He finished the fight landing 42 of 75 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Brunson landed 44% of his significant strikes by sticking 43 of 97. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he landed 25 of 69 pointed at the head. 69% of the significant strikes connected on by Cannonier and 95% of them connected on by Brunson were tallied at distance.

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In the last bout for Dricus Du Plessis, he squared up with Darren Till and ended up winning this fight via a neck crank in round 3. Till connected on 82% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Plessis landed 32% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Plessis connected on 58% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 86 of 147. He ended up landing 69 of 123 significant strikes aimed at the head. Till ended up landing 35 of 70 significant strikes in that contest. Of those significant strikes, he ended up landing 26 of 57 aimed at the head. Relating to total strikes that he let go, Till ended up landing 58 of 94 while Plessis ended up connecting on 117 of 197 of all the strikes he threw.

Other fights to keep an eye on

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Julian Marquez takes on Marc-Andre Barriault. Marquez walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 9-3-0. The 32-year-old is fighting at 185 lbs and measures 6'2". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 72". Barriault stands in at 6'1" and weighs in at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon holding a record of 14-6-0 (1 NC). The 33-year-old has a wingspan of 74". When it comes to grappling, Julian Marquez takes his opponents down 0.60 times per 15 minutes and Marc-Andre Barriault is averaging a takedown 0.30 times per 15 min. In terms of striking, Marquez lands 4.18 strikes/min and lands 43% of his attempted strikes. On the other side of the cage we have Marc-Andre Barriault, who lands 46% of the strikes he has tried and connects on 5.35 per minute.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Song Kenan is set to clash with Ian Garry. Garry comes into this fight holding a mark of 10-0-0. The 25-year-old steps on the scale at 170 lbs and comes in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter reaches 74". Kenan stands 6'0" and will fight at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a record of 18-6-0. The 32-year-old has a reach of 71". Regarding wrestling, Ian Garry is able to deflect 75% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is scoring a takedown on 50% of his attempts. Kenan is taking his opponents down on 15% of the attempts he tries and is able to thwart 50% of all takedown attempts. With regard to striking, Garry is taking 4.34 strikes/minute while he is connecting on 5.95 per min. Kenan, notwithstanding, is taking 4.37 strikes per min and dishes out 4.39 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take Dricus Du Plessis (-240)

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