Clay Guida vs Rafa Garcia Pick, 4/15/2023 Predictions UFC Kansas City Odds

Clay Guida vs Rafa Garcia

UFC Kansas City

T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, MO

Saturday, April 15, 2023

Clay Guida will enter the Octagon with Rafa Garcia at UFC Kansas City on Saturday, April 15, 2023. The opening moneyline has Guida coming in at +185 while Garcia is at -225.

Clay "The Carpenter" Guida has a career mark of 38-19-0. The 41-year-old weighs 155 lbs and comes in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter reaches 70". Rafa "Gifted" Garcia measures 5'7" and weighs 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a mark of 15-3-0. The 28-year-old extends his reach 70". With respect to significant strikes, Clay Guida is connecting on 2.58 per min while Rafa Garcia connects on 3.27 significant strikes per minute. Guida lands 34% of the significant strikes he throws while Garcia is connecting on 40%. When it comes to defending in the Octagon, "The Carpenter" takes 2.80 significant strikes per min and "Gifted" allows 4.21. Guida also defends 62% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him while Garcia deflects 58% of the strikes thrown his way.

When it comes to grappling, Clay Guida is the lesser skilled wrestler as he takes his opponents to the mat 3.27 times per 3 rounds. Guida is scoring a takedown on 37% of the times he tries and is defending 68% of all takedowns attempted on him. Garcia is finishing his takedowns on 45% of his takedown tries and thwarting 76% of the attempts against him. Regarding going for the sub, Guida is the more apt fighter by going for 0.7 submissions per 15 min while Garcia tries 0.3 submissions per 3 rds.

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In his last bout, Clay Guida squared up with Scott Holtzman and took home the win via split decision in round 3. Holtzman ended up landing 77 of 178 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Guida finished this fight landing 95 of 215 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Holtzman ended up landing 65 of 166, which gave him a percentage of 39%. He ended up landing 55 of 146 significant strikes aimed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Guida ended up landing 36% of his significant strikes by landing 66 of 183. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he landed 30 of 134 to the head. 92% of the significant strikes landed by Holtzman and 87% of them landed by Guida were thrown at distance.

In the last fight for Rafa Garcia, he went up against Maheshate and took home the victory via unanimous decision in round 3. Maheshate ended up connecting on 92% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Garcia ended up connecting on 57% of his significant strikes at distance. Garcia landed 50% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 49 of 98. He ended up landing 29 of 70 significant strikes aimed at the head. Maheshate landed 25 of 141 significant strikes in that contest. Of those significant strikes, he ended up landing 16 of 110 aimed at the head. Regarding total strikes that he threw in that fight, Maheshate ended up connecting on 30 of 148 while Garcia ended up landing 79 of 138 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts on the card to watch

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Bill Algeo squares up in the Octagon against TJ Brown. Algeo will be looking to add a victory to his career record of 16-7-0. The 33-year-old records a weight of 145 lbs and comes in at 6'0". The switch fighter has an arm span of 73". Brown measures 5'9" and weighs in at 145 lbs. The switch fighter steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 17-9-0. The 32-year-old reaches 72". In terms of takedowns, Bill Algeo takes his opponents to the canvas 0.77 times per 3 rds and TJ Brown takes his opponents down 3.62 times per 15 min. In terms of striking, Algeo lands an average of 5.68 strikes/minute and is connecting on 53% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side of the cage you've got TJ Brown, who lands 44% of the strikes he attempts and is landing 3.40 per minute.

Another bout to watch is when Matheus Nicolau is set to face off against Brandon Royval. Royval looks to add a win to his record of 14-6-0. The 30-year-old steps on the scale at 125 lbs and stands in at 5'9". The southpaw fighter stretches 68". Nicolau stands 5'6" and will fight at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career mark of 19-3-1. The 30-year-old has a reach of 66". In the category of takedowns, Brandon Royval prevents 39% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is finishing his takedown tries on 85% of his tries. Nicolau is taking his opponents down on 45% of his tries and curbs 93% of takedowns his opponents have tried. In the category of striking, Royval absorbs 2.72 strikes per min while he is landing 3.32 strikes/min. Nicolau, on the other side, is absorbing 3.08 strikes per minute and connects on 3.72 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take Rafa Garcia (-225)

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