Brendan Allen vs Paul Craig Pick, 11/18/2023 Predictions UFC Vegas 82 Odds

Brendan Allen vs Paul Craig

UFC Vegas 82

UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, November 18, 2023

Brendan Allen will enter the Octagon with Paul Craig at UFC Vegas 82 on Saturday, November 18, 2023. The opening odds have Allen at -395 while Craig is coming in at +310.

Brendan "All In" Allen comes into this fight with a mark of 22-5-0. The 27-year-old steps on the scale at 185 lbs and comes in at 6'2". The orthodox fighter stretches 75". Paul "Bearjew" Craig measures 6'3" and records a weight of 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his record of 17-6-1. The 35-year-old has a reach of 76". Concerning significant strikes, Brendan Allen connects on 3.96 per min and Paul Craig is connecting on 2.57 significant strikes per min. Allen lands 53% of the significant strikes he tries while Craig is landing 46%. Regarding defending in the cage, "All In" allows 3.89 significant strikes per minute and "Bearjew" takes 2.85. Allen also defends against 46% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction and Craig is able to thwart 46% of the strikes thrown his way.

Regarding takedowns, Brendan Allen is the not as competent as a grappler as he is averaging a takedown 1.22 times per 15 minutes. Allen is getting his opponent to the mat on 42% of the times he tries and is stopping 55% of the takedowns his opponents try. Craig is taking his opponents to the canvas on 23% of the takedowns he tries and is stopping 42% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding going for the sub, Allen is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by going for 1.6 finishes per 15 min while Craig attempts 1.7 finishes per 3 rds.

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In his previous fight, Brendan Allen went up against Bruno Silva and ended up winning this fight by rear naked choke in round 1. Silva landed 24 of 42 total strikes attempted in that contest. Allen walked away from this fight having landed 40 of 69 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Silva landed 20 of 38, giving him a percentage of 52%. He landed 17 of 33 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Allen ended up landing 53% of his significant strikes by landing 30 of 56. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he connected on 24 of 49 aimed at the head. 80% of the significant strikes landed by Silva and 50% of them connected on by Allen were thrown at distance.

In the last bout for Paul Craig, he fought Andre Muniz and ended up winning this fight by an elbow to the head in round 2. Muniz landed 62% of the significant strikes he took from distance while Craig connected on 25% of his significant strikes at distance. Craig ended up landing 48% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 40 of 82. He landed 31 of 66 significant strikes directed at the head. Muniz landed 24 of 40 significant strikes in that contest. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he ended up landing 15 of 30 aimed at the head. When discussing total strikes that he let go, Muniz ended up connecting on 31 of 47 and Craig connected on 54 of 101 of all the strikes he threw.

Other fights on the card to keep an eye on

One more match to look forward to is when Michael Morales goes up against Jake Matthews. Morales comes into this fight with a mark of 15-0-0. The 24-year-old records a weight of 170 lbs and measures in at 6'0". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 79". Matthews comes in at 5'11" and is weighing in at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a mark of 19-6-0. The 29-year-old stretches 73". When it comes to grappling, Michael Morales takes his opponents to the mat 1.66 times per 3 rds while Jake Matthews gets a takedown 1.71 times per 15 min. When talking about striking, Morales connects for an average of 5.17 strikes/min and is landing 48% of the strikes that he throws. The other guy in this fight is Jake Matthews, who is connecting on 45% of the strikes he has tried and is connecting on 3.27 per minute.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Jordan Leavitt is set to encounter Chase Hooper. Hooper walks into the cage holding a record of 12-3-1. The 24-year-old tips the scales at 155 lbs and stands in at 6'1". The southpaw fighter reaches 74". Leavitt measures 5'9" and is weighing in at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter walks into the cage with a record of 11-2-0. The 28-year-old has an arm span of 71". Regarding takedowns, Chase Hooper stops 50% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is taking his opponents to the canvas on 22% of his attempts. Leavitt is finishing his takedown tries on 26% of the tries he takes and prevents 30% of takedowns his opponents have tried. In the category of striking, Hooper absorbs 3.67 strikes per min and he dishes out 5.00 strikes/minute. Leavitt, on the other side, absorbs 1.93 strikes/min and deals 2.64 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Brendan Allen (-395)

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