Andre Fili vs Lucas Almeida Pick, 12/16/2023 Predictions UFC 296 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 12/12/2023

Andre Fili vs Lucas Almeida

UFC 296

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, December 16, 2023

Andre Fili will face off against Lucas Almeida at UFC 296 on Saturday, December 16, 2023. The moneyline has Fili at -180 while Almeida is priced at +150.

Andre "Touchy" Fili steps into the Octagon with a mark of 22-10-0 (1 NC). The 33-year-old is weighing in at 145 lbs and measures in at 5'11". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 74". Lucas Almeida measures in at 5'11" and tips the scales at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a career mark of 14-2-0. The 32-year-old stretches 71". When talking about significant strikes, Andre Fili is connecting on 3.83 per min and Lucas Almeida lands 5.29 significant strikes per min. Fili lands 37% of the significant strikes he attempts and Almeida lands 47%. In terms of the fighter's defense, "Touchy" absorbs 4.13 significant strikes per min and Almeida takes 5.29. Fili also stops 51% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt and Almeida curbs 45% of the shots thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Andre Fili ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC 296	Andre Fili	Lucas Almeida
Opening Odds	-180	+150
Record	22-10-0 (1 NC)	14-2-0
Average Fight Time	11:08	10:54
Height	5'11"	5'11"
Weight	145 lbs	145 lbs
Reach	74"	71"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.83	5.29
Striking Accuracy	37%	47%

Concerning wrestling, Andre Fili is the more efficient grappler as he scores a takedown 2.22 times per 3 rounds. Fili is scoring a takedown on 47% of his tries and is defending 69% of all takedown tries against him. Almeida is taking his opponents down on 15% of the takedowns he tries and is stuffing 40% of the tries against him. In terms of submission attempts, Fili is less apt at going for the finish by trying 0.3 subs per 3 rds while Almeida attempts 0.8 subs per 3 rds.

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In his previous fight, Andre Fili fought Nathaniel Wood and ended up taking the loss by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Wood landed 108 of 174 total strikes that he let go in that contest. Fili finished this fight landing 76 of 179 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Wood ended up landing 84 of 148, which means his percentage was 56%. He finished the fight landing 38 of 90 significant strikes directed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Fili landed 38% of his significant strikes by landing 58 of 151. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 45 of 134 aimed at the head. 84% of the significant strikes landed by Wood and 91% of them landed by Fili were thrown at a distance.

In the last bout for Lucas Almeida, he squared up with Pat Sabatini and wound up taking the loss via an arm triangle in round 2. Sabatini connected on 3% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Almeida ended up landing 50% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Almeida connected on 50% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 2 of 4. He ended up connecting on 0 of 2 significant strikes directed at the head. Sabatini connected on 27 of 35 significant strikes in that contest. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 25 of 32 aimed at the head. Discussing total strikes attempted in that fight, Sabatini ended up landing 88 of 97 while Almeida ended up connecting on 3 of 5 of all the strikes he threw.

Other fights to watch

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Martin Buday battles Shamil Gaziev. Buday walks into the Octagon with a record of 13-1-0. The 32-year-old records a weight of 265 lbs and measures 6'4". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 77". Gaziev measures in at 6'4" and tips the scales at 265 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his total of 11-0-0. The 33-year-old reaches 78". In terms of takedowns, Martin Buday gets his opposition to the mat 0.30 times per 3 rounds and Shamil Gaziev is able to score a takedown 0.90 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Buday tags his opponents 5.62 strikes/min and lands 52% of the strikes that he attempts. Joining him in the Octagon is Shamil Gaziev, who lands 100% of the strikes he has attempted and connects on 1.52 per minute.

Another bout to watch is when Muslim Salikhov is set to battle Randy Brown. Brown steps into the Octagon holding a record of 17-5-0. The 33-year-old is fighting at 170 lbs and comes in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 78". Salikhov stands 5'11" and is weighing in at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a record of 19-4-0. The 39-year-old stretches 70". In terms of wrestling, Randy Brown is able to defend against 74% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is finishing his takedown attempts on 39% of his attempts. Salikhov is finishing his takedowns on 40% of the attempts he tries and defends against 73% of the takedowns his opponents try. With reference to striking, Brown is taking 3.33 strikes/min while he connects on 4.38 per min. Salikhov, on the other side, is absorbing 2.91 strikes/minute and is dishing out 3.37 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Lucas Almeida (+150)

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Andre Fili vs Lucas Almeida Pick, 12/16/2023 Predictions UFC 296 Odds

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