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Paulo Costa vs Luke Rockhold Pick, 8/20/2022 Predictions UFC 278 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 8/15/2022

ufc picks Luke Rockhold predictions best bet odds

Paulo Costa vs Luke Rockhold

UFC 278

Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, UT

Saturday, August 20, 2022

Paulo Costa will face off against Luke Rockhold at UFC 278 on Saturday, August 20, 2022. The opening odds have Costa at -300 while Rockhold is at +250.

Paulo "The Eraser" Costa will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 13-2-0. The 31-year-old weighs in at 185 lbs and measures in at 6'1". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 72". Luke Rockhold stands in at 6'3" and will fight at 185 lbs. The southpaw fighter has a record of 16-5-0. The 37-year-old reaches 77". Concerning significant strikes, Paulo Costa is landing 6.85 per minute while Luke Rockhold is landing 4.18 significant strikes per min. Costa connects on 59% of the significant strikes he throws while Rockhold lands 48%. Concerning their defense in the Octagon, "The Eraser" allows 7.02 significant strikes per minute and Rockhold takes 2.43. Costa also curbs 48% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction and Rockhold is able to deflect 56% of the shots thrown in his direction.

 

UFC 278 Paulo Costa Luke Rockhold
Opening Odds -300 +250
Record 13-2-0 16-5-0
Average Fight Time 10:03 7:22
Height 6'1" 6'3"
Weight 185 lbs 185 lbs
Reach 72" 77"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 6.85 4.18
Striking Accuracy 59% 48%

 

In terms of grappling, Paulo Costa is not as effective of a grappler as he is able to score a takedown 0.21 times per 15 minutes. Costa is getting his opponent to the mat on 50% of his tries and is stopping 80% of all takedown tries against him. Rockhold is scoring a takedown on 30% of the takedowns he attempts and is stopping 68% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. When it comes to submission attempts, Costa is less likely to go for the finish by trying 0.3 finishes per 15 min while Rockhold goes for 1.1 finishes per 3 rds.

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In his previous fight, Paulo Costa faced Marvin Vettori and walked away with a loss by unanimous decision in round 5. Vettori ended up landing 214 of 373 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Costa finished this fight landing 172 of 269 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Vettori ended up landing 190 of 346, which means his percentage was 54%. He ended up landing 154 of 307 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Costa landed 62% of his significant strikes by sticking 163 of 260. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he connected on 82 of 174 to the head. 88% of the significant strikes landed by Vettori and 94% of them landed by Costa were tallied at distance.

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In the last fight for Luke Rockhold, he battled Jan Blachowicz and was on the losing end of this fight via a punch to the head in round 2. Blachowicz ended up landing 76% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Rockhold ended up landing 64% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Rockhold connected on 38% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 14 of 36. He ended up landing 4 of 20 significant strikes aimed at the head. Blachowicz landed 30 of 42 significant strikes in that fight. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he connected on 11 of 21 directed at the head. In regard to the total strikes thrown in this fight, Blachowicz landed 38 of 50 while Rockhold was 17 of 39 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts on the card to watch

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Jose Aldo faces off with Merab Dvalishvili. Aldo walks into the cage with a mark of 31-7-0. The 35-year-old will fight at 135 lbs and comes in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 70". Dvalishvili comes in at 5'6" and is fighting at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his total of 14-4-0. The 31-year-old has a reach of 68". In the grappling category, Jose Aldo gets a takedown 0.51 times per 3 rounds and Merab Dvalishvili scores a takedown 7.30 times per 15 minutes. When it comes to striking, Aldo connects for an average of 3.61 strikes/min and lands 46% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side of the cage we have Merab Dvalishvili, who tags his opponent on 41% of the strikes he has thrown and lands an average of 4.26 per min.

One more can't miss bout is when Alexandr Romanov is set to square up with Marcin Tybura. Tybura walks into the cage holding a record of 22-7-0. The 36-year-old weighs in at 249 lbs and stands in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter stretches 78". Romanov comes in at 6'2" and weighs 262 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a victory to his record of 16-0-0. The 31-year-old extends his reach 75". When it comes to takedowns, Marcin Tybura defends against 82% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is scoring a takedown on 32% of the times he tries. Romanov is taking his opponents to the mat on 69% of the attempts he tries and prevents 20% of takedowns his opponents have tried. With regard to striking, Tybura absorbs 3.44 strikes/minute and he is dishing out 3.65 strikes/minute. Romanov, at the same time, is taking 1.35 strikes per minute and connects on 4.23 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Luke Rockhold (+250)

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