Mackenzie Dern vs Yan Xiaonan Pick, 10/1/2022 Predictions UFC Vegas 61 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 9/27/2022

ufc picks Mackenzie Dern predictions best bet odds

Mackenzie Dern vs Yan Xiaonan

UFC Vegas 61

APEX in Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, October 1, 2022

Mackenzie Dern will face off against Yan Xiaonan at UFC Vegas 61 on Saturday, October 1, 2022. The opening line has Dern priced at -225 while Xiaonan is priced at +190.

Mackenzie Dern steps into the Octagon with a record of 12-2-0. The 29-year-old steps on the scale at 115 lbs and comes in at 5'4". The orthodox fighter reaches 63". Yan Xiaonan measures 5'5" and tips the scales at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to her record of 15-3-0 (1 NC). The 33-year-old stretches 63". When talking about significant strikes, Mackenzie Dern is connecting on 3.16 per min while Yan Xiaonan lands 5.66 significant strikes per minute. Dern is connecting on 35% of the significant strikes she tries and Xiaonan is landing 42%. Concerning their defense in the cage, Dern takes 4.35 significant strikes per min and Xiaonan takes 3.77. Dern also curbs 54% of the significant strikes her opponents attempt while Xiaonan is able to defend against 62% of the shots thrown in her direction.

UFC Vegas 61	Mackenzie Dern	Yan Xiaonan
Opening Odds	-225	+190
Record	12-2-0	15-3-0 (1 NC)
Average Fight Time	10:57	14:07
Height	5'4"	5'5"
Weight	115 lbs	115 lbs
Reach	63"	63"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.16	5.66
Striking Accuracy	35%	42%

Regarding takedowns, Mackenzie Dern is the lesser skilled grappler as she takes her opponents to the canvas 0.46 times per 15 minutes. Dern is scoring a takedown on 9% of her tries and is defending 40% of the takedowns her opponents try. Xiaonan is scoring a takedown on 66% of the takedowns she attempts and stuffing 65% of all takedowns attempted on her. In terms of submission attempts, Dern is the more experienced of the two fighters by trying 2.0 subs per 15 min while Xiaonan attempts 0.4 subs per 15 minutes.

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The last time she stepped into the Octagon, Mackenzie Dern faced Tecia Torres and got a win for the night via split decision in round 3. Torres ended up landing 78 of 126 total strikes that she let go in that contest. Dern finished this fight landing 58 of 164 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Torres landed 76 of 124, which gave her a percentage of 61%. She finished the fight landing 19 of 61 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Dern landed 32% of her significant strikes by landing 50 of 156. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, she was 42 of 147 aimed at the head. 98% of the significant strikes landed by Torres and 92% of them landed by Dern were thrown at a distance.

In the last bout for Yan Xiaonan, she battled Marina Rodriguez and walked away in defeat by split decision in round 3. Rodriguez ended up landing 81% of the significant strikes she attempted at distance while Xiaonan landed 85% of the significant strikes she attempted at distance. Xiaonan landed 42% of the significant strikes she attempted by landing 56 of 132. She connected on 37 of 105 significant strikes to the head. Rodriguez landed 72 of 200 significant strikes in that fight. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, she ended up landing 46 of 166 to the head. In regard to total strikes that she let go, Rodriguez was 79 of 207 and Xiaonan connected on 66 of 143 of all the strikes she attempted.

Other bouts to watch out for

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Jessica Penne enters the Octagon with Tabatha Ricci. Penne walks into the Octagon holding a record of 14-7-0. The 39-year-old tips the scales at 115 lbs and stands in at 5'5". The orthodox fighter reaches 67". Ricci comes in at 5'1" and tips the scales at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a mark of 7-1-0. The 27-year-old extends her reach 61". In the grappling category, Jessica Penne gets a takedown 1.39 times per 3 rds and Tabatha Ricci takes her opponents to the mat 3.95 times per 15 minutes. In terms of striking, Penne is connecting on 2.62 strikes/min and connects on 32% of the strikes that she throws. On the other side we have Tabatha Ricci, who is landing 37% of the strikes she attempts and connects for an average of 2.95 per min.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Francisco Trinaldo is set to square up against Randy Brown. Brown steps into the cage with a mark of 15-4-0. The 32-year-old is fighting at 170 lbs and measures in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 78". Trinaldo measures in at 5'9" and records a weight of 170 lbs. The southpaw fighter walks into the cage holding a mark of 28-8-0. The 44-year-old has an arm span of 70". Regarding takedowns, Randy Brown is able to deflect 71% of his opponents' takedown tries and is taking his opponents down on 35% of his tries. Trinaldo is taking his opponents to the mat on 43% of the attempts he tries and is able to deflect 59% of the takedowns his opponents try. In the category of striking, Brown takes 3.32 strikes/min and he lands 4.42 per minute. Trinaldo, moreover, absorbs 2.60 strikes/min and deals 3.15 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Mackenzie Dern (-225)

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Mackenzie Dern vs Yan Xiaonan Pick, 10/1/2022 Predictions UFC Vegas 61 Odds

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