Carla Esparza vs Zhang Weili Pick, 11/12/2022 Predictions UFC 281 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 11/8/2022

ufc picks Zhang Weili predictions best bet odds

Carla Esparza vs Zhang Weili

UFC 281

Madison Square Garden in NYC

Saturday, November 12, 2022

Carla Esparza will face off against Zhang Weili at UFC 281 on Saturday, November 12, 2022. The opening moneyline has Esparza coming in at +295 while Weili is priced at -360.

Carla "Cookie Monster" Esparza has a career mark of 20-6-0. The 35-year-old tips the scales at 115 lbs and measures in at 5'1". The orthodox fighter extends her reach 63". Zhang "Magnum" Weili comes in at 5'4" and tips the scales at 115 lbs. The switch fighter steps into the cage with a mark of 22-3-0. The 33-year-old extends her reach 63". When talking about significant strikes, Carla Esparza connects on 2.20 per min while Zhang Weili is connecting on 5.78 significant strikes per minute. Esparza lands 40% of the significant strikes she attempts while Weili lands 47%. In terms of the fighter's defense, "Cookie Monster" allows 2.59 significant strikes per min and "Magnum" allows 4.26. Esparza also deflects 55% of the significant strikes her opponents throw at her and Weili is able to thwart 52% of the shots thrown in her direction.

UFC 281	Carla Esparza	Zhang Weili
Opening Odds	+295	-360
Record	20-6-0	22-3-0
Average Fight Time	14:31	11:39
Height	5'1"	5'4"
Weight	115 lbs	115 lbs
Reach	63"	63"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	2.20	5.78
Striking Accuracy	40%	47%

In terms of wrestling, Carla Esparza is the more efficient grappler as she is able to score a takedown 3.25 times per 15 min. Esparza is scoring a takedown on 35% of her tries and defending 47% of all takedown attempts. Weili is scoring a takedown on 34% of the takedowns she attempts and defending 60% of the attempts against her. In terms of going for the submission, Esparza is the lesser skilled of the two fighters by trying 0.3 subs per 3 rounds while Weili attempts 0.4 subs per 3 rds.

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The last time she stepped into the Octagon, Carla Esparza faced Rose Namajunas and got a win for the night by way of split decision in round 5. Namajunas landed 38 of 137 total strikes that she threw in that fight. Esparza finished this fight landing 30 of 133 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Namajunas ended up landing 37 of 136, which gave her a percentage of 27%. She ended up landing 30 of 122 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Esparza ended up landing 22% of her significant strikes by sticking 30 of 133. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, she connected on 15 of 108 to the head. 97% of the significant strikes connected on by Namajunas and 90% of them landed by Esparza were done at a distance.

In the last fight for Zhang Weili, she fought Joanna Jedrzejczyk and ended up getting the victory by way of a spinning fist to the head in round 2. Jedrzejczyk ended up landing 90% of the significant strikes she attempted at distance and Weili landed 42% of the significant strikes she tried at a distance. Weili ended up connecting on 67% of the significant strikes she attempted by landing 69 of 102. She ended up landing 52 of 80 significant strikes directed at the head. Jedrzejczyk ended up landing 43 of 85 significant strikes in that fight. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, she connected on 20 of 56 aimed at the head. In terms of total strikes attempted in that fight, Jedrzejczyk ended up connecting on 44 of 86 and Weili landed 94 of 130 of all the strikes she attempted.

Other bouts on the card to keep an eye on

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Erin Blanchfield faces off against Molly McCann. Blanchfield steps into the cage with a record of 9-1-0. The 23-year-old steps on the scale at 125 lbs and stands 5'4". The orthodox fighter reaches 66". McCann comes in at 5'4" and steps on the scale at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to her total of 13-4-0. The 32-year-old stretches 62". In terms of takedowns, Erin Blanchfield gets a takedown 3.99 times per 15 minutes while Molly McCann takes her opponents to the mat 1.73 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Blanchfield is connecting on 5.69 strikes per min and is connecting on 56% of the strikes that she throws. On the other side we have Molly McCann, who connects on 50% of the strikes she attempts and connects on 5.84 per minute.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Silvana Gomez Juarez is set to enter the Octagon against Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Kowalkiewicz looks to add a win to her record of 13-7-0. The 37-year-old will fight at 115 lbs and measures 5'3". The orthodox fighter reaches 64". Gomez Juarez stands in at 5'3" and weighs in at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career record of 11-4-0. The 37-year-old extends her reach 65". Regarding wrestling, Karolina Kowalkiewicz is stopping 75% of the takedowns her opponents go for and is scoring a takedown on 18% of her tries. Gomez Juarez is finishing her takedown tries on 15% of her tries and prevents 37% of the takedowns her opponents attempt. With reference to striking, Kowalkiewicz is taking 5.59 strikes/minute and she is dealing 5.38 strikes/minute. Gomez Juarez, on the other side, takes 2.37 strikes per minute and is dishing out 2.62 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take Carla Esparza (+295)

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Carla Esparza vs Zhang Weili Pick, 11/12/2022 Predictions UFC 281 Odds

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