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Thiago Moises vs Joel Alvarez Pick, 11/13/2021 Predictions UFC Vegas 42 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 11/8/2021

ufc picks Thiago Moises predictions best bet odds

Thiago Moises vs Joel Alvarez

UFC Vegas 42

UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, November 13, 2021

Thiago Moises will face off against Joel Alvarez at UFC Vegas 42 on Saturday, November 13, 2021. The opening line has Moises coming in at -225 while Alvarez is at +185.

Song Yadong looks to add a victory to his record of 15-5-0. The 26-year-old steps on the scale at 155 lbs and comes in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 70". Julio Arce stands 6'3" and is weighing in at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a record of 18-2-0. The 28-year-old extends his reach 77". Regarding significant strikes, Thiago Moises is connecting on 2.49 per minute while Joel Alvarez is landing 2.84 significant strikes per minute. Moises lands 37% of the significant strikes he tries and Alvarez lands 37%. Regarding defending in the Octagon, Moises takes 3.81 significant strikes per minute and "El Fenomeno" absorbs 3.31. Moises also prevents 58% of the significant strikes that are directed at him while Alvarez is able to stop 53% of the strikes thrown his way.

 

UFC Vegas 42 Thiago Moises Joel Alvarez
Opening Odds -225 +185
Record 15-5-0 18-2-0
Average Fight Time 12:48 6:57
Height 5'9" 6'3"
Weight 155 lbs 155 lbs
Reach 70" 77"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 2.49 2.84
Striking Accuracy 37% 37%

 

When it comes to wrestling, Thiago Moises is the more efficient wrestler as he scores a takedown 1.03 times per 15 minutes. Moises is scoring a takedown on 35% of the times he tries and is stuffing 60% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Alvarez is finishing his takedown attempts on 20% of the takedowns he attempts and thwarting 30% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Moises is the lesser skilled fighter by trying 1.2 submissions per 15 min while Alvarez attempts 1.6 submissions per 3 rounds.

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In his previous fight, Thiago Moises went up against Islam Makhachev and was on the losing end of this fight by rear naked choke in round 4. Makhachev landed 148 of 194 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Moises ended the night having landed 18 of 51 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Makhachev ended up landing 61 of 92, which gave him a percentage of 66%. He landed 28 of 56 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side, Moises ended up landing 29% of his significant strikes by landing 13 of 44. Of all the significant strikes, he was 6 of 30 aimed at the head. 36% of the significant strikes landed by Makhachev and 69% of them landed by Moises were done at distance.

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In the last fight for Joel Alvarez, he battled Alexander Yakovlev and wound up getting the win by an armbar from bottom guard in round 1. Yakovlev connected on 100% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Alvarez ended up connecting on 75% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Alvarez ended up landing 66% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 4 of 6. He ended up landing 1 of 3 significant strikes directed at the head. Yakovlev ended up landing 1 of 1 significant strikes in that fight. Of those significant strikes, he ended up landing 0 of 0 directed at the head. Discussing total strikes that he threw in that fight, Yakovlev landed 15 of 16 and Alvarez was 10 of 13 of all the strikes he threw.

Other fights to keep an eye on

One more match to look forward to is when Miguel Baeza squares up in the Octagon against Khaos Williams. Baeza will be looking to add a win to his record of 10-1-0. The 29-year-old is weighing in at 170 lbs and stands in at 6'2". The orthodox fighter stretches 74". Williams stands in at 6'0" and records a weight of 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his record of 12-2-0. The 27-year-old has a wingspan of 77". In terms of takedowns, Miguel Baeza takes his opponents to the canvas 0.57 times per 3 rds while Khaos Williams is averaging a takedown 0.30 times per 15 min. When it comes to striking, Baeza connects for an average of 5.30 strikes per min and connecting on 49% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side we have Khaos Williams, who tags his opponent on 38% of the strikes he attempts and lands 5.20 per min.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Collin Anglin is set to take on Sean Woodson. Woodson comes into this fight holding a mark of 8-1-0. The 29-year-old is fighting at 145 lbs and measures 6'2". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 78". Anglin measures in at 5'9" and is weighing in at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout with a mark of 8-2-0. The 28-year-old has a wingspan of 71". In terms of wrestling, Sean Woodson defends against 81% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is finishing his takedown tries on 20% of his tries. Anglin is taking his opponents down on 80% of the tries he takes and is able to stop 80% of the takedowns his opponents try. In the matter of striking, Woodson takes 3.94 strikes per minute while he is landing 5.27 per min. Anglin, on the other side, absorbs 4.40 strikes/min and is connecting on 5.18 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Thiago Moises (-225)

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