Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Miguel Baeza Pick, 6/5/2021 Predictions UFC Vegas 28 Odds

by Tony Sink - 6/2/2021

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Miguel Baeza

UFC Vegas 28

UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, June 5, 2021

Santiago Ponzinibbio will face off against Miguel Baeza at UFC Vegas 28 on Saturday, June 5, 2021. The opening moneyline has Ponzinibbio coming in at +105 while Baeza is coming in at -125.

Santiago "Argentine Dagger" Ponzinibbio will be looking to add a win to his career record of 28-4-0. The 34-year-old records a weight of 170 lbs and stands 6'0". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 73". Miguel "Caramel Thunder" Baeza measures 6'2" and weighs 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a mark of 10-0-0. The 28-year-old has a wingspan of 74". Regarding significant strikes, Santiago Ponzinibbio connects on 4.21 per minute and Miguel Baeza connects on 4.64 significant strikes per min. Ponzinibbio lands 40% of the significant strikes he throws and Baeza lands 55%. Concerning their defense in the cage, "Argentine Dagger" takes 4.05 significant strikes per min while "Caramel Thunder" absorbs 3.89. Ponzinibbio also curbs 64% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him and Baeza is able to curb 50% of the shots thrown.

UFC Vegas 28	Santiago Ponzinibbio	Miguel Baeza
Opening Odds	+105	-125
Record	28-4-0	10-0-0
Average Fight Time	9:43	9:20
Height	6'0"	6'2"
Weight	170 lbs	170 lbs
Reach	73"	74"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.21	4.64
Striking Accuracy	40%	55%

In terms of takedowns, Santiago Ponzinibbio is the lesser skilled grappler as he is able to score a takedown 0.52 times per 3 rds. Ponzinibbio is getting his opponent to the mat on 44% of his attempts and thwarting 60% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Baeza is getting his opponent to the mat on 40% of the takedowns he tries and stopping 70% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding going for the sub, Ponzinibbio is less apt at going for the finish by trying 0.4 subs per 3 rds while Baeza looks to get 1.2 subs per 3 rounds.

The last time he fought, Santiago Ponzinibbio fought Li Jingliang and wound up losing the fight by a punch to the head in round 1. Jingliang ended up landing 21 of 50 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Ponzinibbio finished this fight landing 11 of 18 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Jingliang landed 21 of 50, which gave him a percentage of 42%. He finished the fight landing 6 of 30 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side, Ponzinibbio landed 61% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 11 of 18. Of those significant strikes, he was 7 of 14 pointed at the head. 95% of the significant strikes connected on by Jingliang and 100% of them landed by Ponzinibbio were done at a distance.

In the last fight for Miguel Baeza, he went up against Takashi Sato and took home the victory via an arm triangle in round 2. Sato ended up connecting on 100% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and Baeza landed 80% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Baeza ended up connecting on 54% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 40 of 73. He ended up connecting on 16 of 40 significant strikes directed at the head. Sato landed 15 of 58 significant strikes in that contest. Out of those significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 10 of 49 aimed at the head. In regard to total strikes that he let go, Sato ended up connecting on 15 of 58 and Baeza was 43 of 82 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights on the card to watch

One more match to look forward to is when Dusko Todorovic fights Gregory Rodrigues. Todorovic holds a career record of 10-1-0. The 27-year-old tips the scales at 185 lbs and stands 6'1". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 74". Rodrigues comes in at 6'3" and steps on the scale at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a record of 7-3-0. The 29-year-old stretches 75". When it comes to grappling, Dusko Todorovic takes his opponents down 0.53 times per 3 rounds while Gregory Rodrigues takes his opponents to the mat 0.20 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Todorovic lands 7.45 strikes per min and lands 62% of the strikes that he throws. Joining him in the Octagon is Gregory Rodrigues, who tags the opposition on 56% of the strikes he has tried and lands 6.04 per minute.

If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Antonio Arroyo is set to face off with Tom Breese. Breese will be looking to add a victory to his record of 12-3-0. The 29-year-old tips the scales at 185 lbs and stands 6'3". The southpaw fighter reaches 73". Arroyo stands 6'3" and is fighting at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his record of 9-4-0. The 31-year-old has a wingspan of 73". When it comes to takedowns, Tom Breese prevents 70% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is finishing his takedown tries on 10% of the times he tries. Arroyo is finishing his takedowns on 41% of the tries he takes and prevents 32% of all takedown tries against him. In the category of striking, Breese is taking 2.81 strikes per min and he lands 3.34 strikes/minute. Arroyo, on the other hand, absorbs 1.72 strikes per min and dishes out 3.08 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Miguel Baeza (-125)

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Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Miguel Baeza Pick, 6/5/2021 Predictions UFC Vegas 28 Odds

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