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Robert Whittaker vs Kelvin Gastelum Pick, 4/17/2021 Predictions UFC on ESPN 22 Odds

by Tony Sink - 4/15/2021

Kelvin Gastelum UFC

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Robert Whittaker vs Kelvin Gastelum

UFC on ESPN 22

UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, April 17, 2021

Robert Whittaker will face off against Kelvin Gastelum at UFC on ESPN 22 on Saturday, April 17, 2021. The line has Whittaker priced at -260 while Gastelum is at +220.

Robert "The Reaper" Whittaker walks into the cage with a mark of 23-5-0. The 30-year-old weighs 185 lbs and stands 6'0". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 73". Kelvin Gastelum measures in at 5'9" and tips the scales at 185 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a win to his career record of 17-6-0. The 29-year-old stretches 71". In the category of significant strikes, Robert Whittaker is landing 4.52 per min and Kelvin Gastelum lands 3.64 significant strikes per minute. Whittaker is landing 40% of the significant strikes he attempts and Gastelum is connecting on 43%. Regarding defending in the Octagon, "The Reaper" absorbs 3.44 significant strikes per min and Gastelum allows 2.92. Whittaker also deflects 60% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him while Gastelum deflects 59% of them.

 

UFC on ESPN 22 Robert Whittaker Kelvin Gastelum
Opening Odds -260 +220
Record 23-5-0 17-6-0
Average Fight Time 13:04 12:18
Height 6'0" 5'9"
Weight 185 lbs 185 lbs
Reach 73" 71"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.52 3.64
Striking Accuracy 40% 43%

 

Concerning wrestling, Robert Whittaker is the not as competent as a grappler as he is able to score a takedown 0.43 times per 3 rds. Whittaker is finishing his takedown attempts on 27% of the times he tries and stopping 84% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Gastelum is taking his opponents down on 39% of his takedown tries and stopping 64% of the attempts against him. Regarding going for the sub, Whittaker is the more skilled of the two fighters by attempting 0.4 subs per 15 minutes while Gastelum tries 0.1 subs per 3 rds.

The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Robert Whittaker fought Jared Cannonier and wound up getting the victory via unanimous decision in round 3. Cannonier ended up landing 58 of 94 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Whittaker ended the night having landed 75 of 158 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Cannonier landed 53 of 89, giving him a percentage of 59%. He ended up landing 17 of 46 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side, Whittaker ended up landing 45% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 69 of 151. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he was 59 of 138 aimed at the head. 92% of the significant strikes connected on by Cannonier and 89% of them landed by Whittaker were done at distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Kelvin Gastelum, he squared up with Ian Heinisch and wound up getting the victory by unanimous decision in round 3. Heinisch ended up connecting on 96% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Gastelum ended up landing 73% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Gastelum ended up landing 45% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 38 of 84. He connected on 20 of 62 significant strikes directed at the head. Heinisch landed 27 of 67 significant strikes in that battle. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he landed 10 of 42 aimed at the head. In relation to the total strikes thrown in this fight, Heinisch ended up landing 56 of 107 and Gastelum landed 51 of 115 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other bouts on the card to watch out for

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Jeremy Stephens enters the Octagon against Drakkar Klose. Stephens steps into the Octagon holding a record of 28-18-0. The 34-year-old records a weight of 145 lbs and measures 5'9". The orthodox fighter stretches 71". Klose stands in at 5'9" and is fighting at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career record of 11-2-1. The 33-year-old has a wingspan of 70". When it comes to grappling, Jeremy Stephens gets his opposition to the mat 1.16 times per 15 minutes and Drakkar Klose takes his opponents down 1.56 times per 15 minutes. In the striking category, Stephens lands 3.18 strikes/min and is connecting on 40% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side we have Drakkar Klose, who tags the opposition on 53% of the strikes he has tried and connects on 3.89 per minute.

Another must see fight on the night is when Chase Sherman is set to face off with Andrei Arlovski. Arlovski has a record of 30-20-0. The 42-year-old weighs 240 lbs and measures in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter reaches 77". Sherman stands 6'4" and is fighting at 250 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a mark of 15-6-0. The 31-year-old reaches 78". In terms of grappling, Andrei Arlovski prevents 78% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is taking his opponents to the mat on 36% of the times he tries. Sherman is taking his opponents down on 20% of the tries he takes and defends against 77% of all takedown attempts. In the matter of striking, Arlovski is absorbing 2.83 strikes per minute and he lands 3.48 strikes/minute. Sherman, on the other hand, is absorbing 5.55 strikes per minute and connects on 6.02 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Robert Whittaker (-260)

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