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Mackenzie Dern vs Marina Rodriguez Pick, 10/9/2021 Predictions UFC Vegas 39 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 10/5/2021

ufc picks Marina Rodriguez predictions best bet odds

Mackenzie Dern vs Marina Rodriguez

UFC Vegas 39

UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, October 9, 2021

Mackenzie Dern will enter the Octagon against Marina Rodriguez at UFC Vegas 39 on Saturday, October 9, 2021. The line has Dern coming in at -158 while Rodriguez is coming in at +128.

Mackenzie Dern walks into the Octagon holding a record of 11-1-0. The 28-year-old is weighing in at 115 lbs and stands 5'4". The orthodox fighter stretches 63". Marina Rodriguez comes in at 5'6" and will fight at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a record of 14-1-2. The 34-year-old stretches 65". Regarding significant strikes, Mackenzie Dern connects on 3.64 per min and Marina Rodriguez connects on 4.89 significant strikes per min. Dern is landing 38% of the significant strikes she tries and Rodriguez is landing 48%. Regarding defending in the cage, Dern allows 3.57 significant strikes per minute while Rodriguez absorbs 3.24. Dern also curbs 61% of the significant strikes her opponents attempt while Rodriguez stops 54% of the shots thrown in her direction.

 

UFC Vegas 39 Mackenzie Dern Marina Rodriguez
Opening Odds -158 +128
Record 11-1-0 14-1-2
Average Fight Time 8:22 13:37
Height 5'4" 5'6"
Weight 115 lbs 115 lbs
Reach 63" 65"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.64 4.89
Striking Accuracy 38% 48%

 

In terms of takedowns, Mackenzie Dern is the more capable wrestler as she is able to score a takedown 0.51 times per 15 minutes. Dern is getting her opponent to the mat on 10% of her tries and defending 0% of all takedowns attempted by her opposition. Rodriguez is scoring a takedown on 33% of her takedown tries and stuffing 62% of the attempts against her. Regarding going for the sub, Dern is the more capable fighter by attempting 2.3 finishes per 15 minutes while Rodriguez attempts 0.1 finishes per 15 minutes.

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In her last bout, Mackenzie Dern squared up with Nina Nunes and ended up getting the victory by an armbar from the mount position in round 1. Nunes ended up landing 5 of 8 total strikes that she let go. Dern ended the night having landed 31 of 44 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Nunes landed 4 of 7, which gave her a percentage of 57%. She ended up landing 2 of 5 significant strikes to the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Dern ended up landing 54% of the significant strikes she threw by landing 12 of 22. Out of those significant strikes, she landed 10 of 20 to the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Nunes and 66% of them landed by Dern were done at a distance.

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In the last bout for Marina Rodriguez, she faced off with Michelle Waterson and wound up getting the win by unanimous decision in round 5. Waterson connected on 84% of the significant strikes she tried at a distance while Rodriguez ended up connecting on 84% of her significant strikes at distance. Rodriguez connected on 44% of her significant strikes attempted by connecting on 125 of 282. She ended up connecting on 60 of 188 significant strikes directed at the head. Waterson landed 88 of 205 significant strikes in that fight. Out of those significant strikes, she ended up connecting on 43 of 129 directed at the head. In regard to the total strikes thrown in this fight, Waterson was 100 of 222 while Rodriguez connected on 144 of 304 of the strikes she threw in total.

Other fights on the card to watch

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Sabina Mazo faces off with Mariya Agapova. Mazo comes into this fight with a mark of 9-2-0. The 24-year-old steps on the scale at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter stretches 70". Agapova stands 5'6" and steps on the scale at 125 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the Octagon with a mark of 9-2-0. The 24-year-old reaches 68". When it comes to grappling, Sabina Mazo takes her opponents to the mat 0.81 times per 15 minutes while Mariya Agapova takes her opponents to the canvas 1.23 times per 15 minutes. In terms of striking, Mazo lands 6.56 strikes/min and is connecting on 44% of her attempted strikes. Joining her in the Octagon is Mariya Agapova, who is landing 50% of the strikes she attempts and connects on 3.70 per minute.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Sam Hughes is set to enter the Octagon with Lupita Godinez. Godinez looks to add a victory to her career total of 5-1-0. The 28-year-old weighs 115 lbs and stands 5'2". The orthodox fighter extends her reach 61". Hughes measures 5'5" and weighs in at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career record of 5-3-0. The 29-year-old reaches 64". In the category of takedowns, Lupita Godinez is thwarting 85% of the takedowns her opponents try and is scoring a takedown on 33% of the times she tries. Hughes is finishing her takedown tries on 0% of her tries and is able to thwart 44% of all takedown attempts. In the category of striking, Godinez takes 2.07 strikes per minute and she is dealing 2.67 per minute. Hughes, in contrast, absorbs 6.80 strikes/minute and dishes out 3.45 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take Mackenzie Dern (-158)

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