Louis Smolka vs Vince Morales Pick, 12/4/2021 Predictions UFC Vegas 44 Odds

by Tony Sink - 11/30/2021

ufc picks Louis Smolka predictions best bet odds

Louis Smolka vs Vince Morales

UFC Vegas 44

UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, December 4, 2021

Louis Smolka will enter the Octagon against Vince Morales at UFC Vegas 44 on Saturday, December 4, 2021. The opening line has Smolka priced at -140 while Morales is at +120.

Louis "Da Last Samurai" Smolka steps into the cage holding a mark of 17-7-0. The 30-year-old is weighing in at 135 lbs and stands 5'9". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 68". Vince "Vandetta" Morales measures in at 5'7" and is fighting at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his total of 10-5-0. The 31-year-old has a reach of 70". Concerning significant strikes, Louis Smolka is landing 4.44 per minute and Vince Morales lands 4.39 significant strikes per min. Smolka is connecting on 46% of the significant strikes he throws while Morales connects on 39%. Concerning their defense in the Octagon, "Da Last Samurai" takes 3.74 significant strikes per minute while "Vandetta" allows 4.06. Smolka also prevents 53% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction and Morales prevents 55% of them.

UFC Vegas 44	Louis Smolka	Vince Morales
Opening Odds	-140	+120
Record	17-7-0	10-5-0
Average Fight Time	9:48	12:43
Height	5'9"	5'7"
Weight	135 lbs	135 lbs
Reach	68"	70"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.44	4.39
Striking Accuracy	46%	39%

In the grappling category, Louis Smolka is the more effective grappler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 1.84 times per 15 min. Smolka is getting his opponent to the mat on 37% of his tries and defending 31% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Morales is taking his opponents down on 25% of his takedown attempts and stuffing 50% of the tries against him. Regarding going for the sub, Smolka is the more able fighter by attempting 1.9 finishes per 3 rounds while Morales tries 0.7 finishes per 15 min.

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The last time he fought, Louis Smolka squared up with Jose Quinonez and took home the victory by way of a punch to the head in round 2. Quinonez landed 47 of 113 total strikes attempted in that fight. Smolka finished this fight landing 64 of 128 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Quinonez landed 43 of 107, giving him a percentage of 40%. He ended up landing 13 of 66 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Smolka ended up landing 50% of his significant strikes by connecting on 59 of 116. Of those significant strikes, he connected on 35 of 88 aimed at the head. 86% of the significant strikes landed by Quinonez and 57% of them landed by Smolka were tallied at distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Vince Morales, he went up against Drako Rodriguez and ended up getting the victory in the fight by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Rodriguez connected on 89% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Morales ended up landing 90% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Morales ended up connecting on 38% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 76 of 196. He landed 46 of 150 significant strikes directed at the head. Rodriguez landed 55 of 151 significant strikes in that contest. Of those significant strikes, he ended up landing 45 of 138 aimed at the head. Discussing total strikes that he let go, Rodriguez ended up connecting on 60 of 156 while Morales connected on 84 of 204 total strikes.

Other bouts to watch out for

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Cheyanne Vlismas squares up in the Octagon against Mallory Martin. Vlismas looks to add a victory to her total of 6-2-0. The 26-year-old records a weight of 115 lbs and stands 5'3". The switch fighter reaches 63". Martin measures in at 5'4" and is fighting at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to her career record of 7-4-0. The 27-year-old extends her reach 63". When it comes to grappling, Cheyanne Vlismas takes her opponents to the mat 0.48 times per 3 rounds and Mallory Martin takes her opponents to the canvas 3.37 times per 15 min. When talking about striking, Vlismas lands 4.32 strikes per minute and connecting on 54% of her attempted strikes. On the other side we have Mallory Martin, who is landing 59% of the strikes she attempts and connects on 3.99 per minute.

One more can't miss bout is when Jose Aldo is set to take on Rob Font. Font has a mark of 19-4-0. The 34-year-old steps on the scale at 135 lbs and comes in at 5'8". The orthodox fighter reaches 71". Aldo measures 5'7" and will fight at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a mark of 30-7-0. The 35-year-old has an arm span of 70". Regarding takedowns, Rob Font is able to curb 53% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is finishing his takedown tries on 40% of his attempts. Aldo is finishing his takedowns on 56% of the attempts he tries and thwarts 91% of the takedowns his opponents try. With reference to striking, Font is absorbing 3.57 strikes/min while he connects on 5.58 strikes/min. Aldo, notwithstanding, is taking 3.59 strikes per min and dishes out 3.63 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Louis Smolka (-140)

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Louis Smolka vs Vince Morales Pick, 12/4/2021 Predictions UFC Vegas 44 Odds

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