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Leon Edwards vs Nate Diaz Pick, 6/12/2021 Predictions UFC 263 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 6/9/2021

Nate Diaz UFC

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Leon Edwards vs Nate Diaz

UFC 263

Gila River Arena in Glendale, AZ

Saturday, June 12, 2021

Leon Edwards will face off against Nate Diaz at UFC 263 on Saturday, June 12, 2021. The opening line has Edwards at -600 while Diaz is coming in at +450.

Leon "Rocky" Edwards walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 18-3-0. The 29-year-old weighs in at 170 lbs and measures 6'2". The southpaw fighter extends his reach 74". Nate Diaz measures in at 6'0" and records a weight of 170 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a win to his record of 21-12-0. The 36-year-old has an arm span of 76". With respect to significant strikes, Leon Edwards is connecting on 2.56 per minute while Nate Diaz is connecting on 4.62 significant strikes per min. Edwards is landing 47% of the significant strikes he tries and Diaz is landing 45%. When it comes to defending themselves, "Rocky" absorbs 2.03 significant strikes per minute and Diaz allows 3.78. Edwards also prevents 55% of the significant strikes that are directed at him while Diaz defends against 53% of the strikes thrown his way.

 

UFC 263 Leon Edwards Nate Diaz
Opening Odds -600 +450
Record 18-3-0 21-12-0
Average Fight Time 14:30 10:56
Height 6'2" 6'0"
Weight 170 lbs 170 lbs
Reach 74" 76"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 2.56 4.62
Striking Accuracy 47% 45%

 

Regarding grappling, Leon Edwards is the more capable grappler as he takes his opponents down 1.35 times per 15 minutes. Edwards is finishing his takedown attempts on 30% of his attempts and stuffing 70% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Diaz is scoring a takedown on 30% of the takedowns he tries and defending 42% of all takedowns attempted on him. When it comes to submissions, Edwards is the lesser skilled fighter by trying 0.4 submissions per 3 rounds while Diaz goes for 1.4 submissions per 3 rds.

In his last fight, Leon Edwards faced Belal Muhammad and the fight ended in a no contest by an eye poke in round 2. Muhammad ended up landing 14 of 32 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Edwards finished this fight landing 20 of 40 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Muhammad ended up landing 8 of 26, which gave him a percentage of 30%. He landed 7 of 23 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side, Edwards ended up landing 48% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 19 of 39. Of those significant strikes, he was 10 of 29 aimed at the head. 75% of the significant strikes connected on by Muhammad and 100% of them landed by Edwards were done at a distance.

In the last fight for Nate Diaz, he squared up with Jorge Masvidal and ended up taking the loss by way of facial cuts in round 3. Masvidal ended up landing 46% of his significant strikes at distance while Diaz ended up connecting on 76% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Diaz ended up connecting on 41% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 43 of 104. He ended up landing 23 of 74 significant strikes aimed at the head. Masvidal connected on 112 of 179 significant strikes in that fight. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 78 of 136 directed at the head. In terms of the total strikes thrown in this fight, Masvidal ended up landing 114 of 184 while Diaz ended up landing 125 of 194 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts to keep an eye on

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Demian Maia squares up against Belal Muhammad. Maia walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 28-10-0. The 43-year-old tips the scales at 170 lbs and measures 6'1". The southpaw fighter reaches 72". Muhammad stands 5'11" and weighs 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a record of 18-3-0. The 32-year-old has an arm span of 72". In terms of takedowns, Demian Maia takes his opponents to the mat 2.55 times per 3 rounds and Belal Muhammad takes his opponents down 1.97 times per 15 minutes. In terms of striking, Maia lands 1.82 strikes/minute and landing 43% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side we have Belal Muhammad, who connects on 43% of the strikes he attempts and is connecting on 4.75 per minute.

One more can't miss bout is when Jamahal Hill is set to enter the Octagon with Paul Craig. Craig walks into the cage holding a record of 14-4-1. The 33-year-old is fighting at 205 lbs and stands in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 76". Hill stands in at 6'4" and tips the scales at 205 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the Octagon with a mark of 8-0-0. The 30-year-old reaches 79". When it comes to takedowns, Paul Craig is able to deflect 55% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is taking his opponents to the mat on 26% of his attempts. Hill is taking his opponents to the mat on 30% of his attempts and is able to defend against 53% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. In the matter of striking, Craig is absorbing 2.43 strikes per min and he is dishing out 2.40 per min. Hill, at the same time, absorbs 3.15 strikes per min and connects on 7.90 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take Leon Edwards (-600)

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