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Gilbert Burns vs Stephen Thompson Pick, 7/10/2021 Predictions UFC 264 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 7/6/2021

ufc picks Stephen Thompson predictions best bet odds

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Gilbert Burns vs Stephen Thompson

UFC 264

UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, July 10, 2021

Gilbert Burns will enter the Octagon against Stephen Thompson at UFC 264 on Saturday, July 10, 2021. The opening line has Burns at +136 while Thompson is at -168.

Gilbert "Durinho" Burns holds a career mark of 19-4-0. The 34-year-old is weighing in at 170 lbs and measures in at 5'10". The orthodox fighter reaches 71". Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson comes in at 6'0" and tips the scales at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a mark of 16-4-1. The 38-year-old extends his reach 75". In the category of significant strikes, Gilbert Burns is connecting on 3.22 per min and Stephen Thompson is landing 4.24 significant strikes per min. Burns lands 45% of the significant strikes he attempts and Thompson lands 43%. Concerning their defense in the cage, "Durinho" absorbs 3.04 significant strikes per minute while "Wonderboy" allows 2.80. Burns also defends against 54% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way and Thompson curbs 58% of the strikes thrown in his direction.

 

UFC 264 Gilbert Burns Stephen Thompson
Opening Odds +136 -168
Record 19-4-0 16-4-1
Average Fight Time 11:15 14:31
Height 5'10" 6'0"
Weight 170 lbs 170 lbs
Reach 71" 75"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.22 4.24
Striking Accuracy 45% 43%

 

Regarding wrestling, Gilbert Burns is the more efficient wrestler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 2.08 times per 3 rds. Burns is scoring a takedown on 35% of his tries and is stopping 50% of all takedowns attempted on him. Thompson is taking his opponents to the mat on 45% of the takedowns he tries and stuffing 78% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding going for the sub, Burns is the more skilled of the two fighters by attempting 0.7 subs per 15 min while Thompson looks to get 0.3 subs per 3 rds.

In his previous bout, Gilbert Burns fought Kamaru Usman and was defeated via a punch to the head while on the ground in round 3. Usman ended up landing 93 of 149 total strikes that he threw in that fight. Burns finished this fight landing 55 of 124 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Usman landed 83 of 136, giving him a percentage of 61%. He landed 56 of 105 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Burns ended up landing 41% of his significant strikes by landing 45 of 108. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he was 18 of 75 aimed at the head. 65% of the significant strikes connected on by Usman and 97% of them landed by Burns were tallied at a distance.

In the last bout for Stephen Thompson, he fought Geoff Neal and wound up taking home the victory by way of unanimous decision in round 5. Neal landed 92% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and Thompson ended up connecting on 96% of his significant strikes at distance. Thompson ended up connecting on 42% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 171 of 406. He landed 124 of 354 significant strikes aimed at the head. Neal ended up landing 85 of 179 significant strikes in that contest. Of all the significant strikes, he ended up landing 71 of 161 aimed at the head. In terms of total strikes attempted in that fight, Neal was 110 of 205 while Thompson connected on 191 of 428 of all the strikes he threw.

Other fights to watch

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Tai Tuivasa encounters Greg Hardy. Tuivasa will be looking to add a win to his career record of 12-3-0. The 28-year-old tips the scales at 264 lbs and stands in at 6'2". The southpaw fighter has a reach of 75". Hardy measures in at 6'5" and weighs 265 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a career record of 7-3-0. The 32-year-old has a wingspan of 80". Regarding grappling, Tai Tuivasa is able to score a takedown 0.11 times per 3 rounds while Greg Hardy gets a takedown 0.21 times per 15 min. When it comes to striking, Tuivasa connects for an average of 4.38 strikes per min and is landing 50% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side of the cage we have Greg Hardy, who tags the opposition on 50% of the strikes he has thrown and is connecting on 4.83 per min.

One more can't miss bout is when Max Griffin is set to clash with Carlos Condit. Condit looks to add a win to his career total of 32-13-0. The 37-year-old is weighing in at 170 lbs and stands in at 6'2". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 75". Griffin stands 5'11" and is weighing in at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a career mark of 17-8-0. The 35-year-old stretches 76". Regarding wrestling, Carlos Condit deflects 39% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is finishing his takedowns on 54% of his tries. Griffin is finishing his takedowns on 51% of the attempts he tries and is able to stop 66% of the takedowns his opponents try. With regard to striking, Condit is taking 2.49 strikes per minute while he is landing 3.63 strikes/minute. Griffin, notwithstanding, is taking 3.94 strikes/min and is connecting on 4.14 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Stephen Thompson (-168)

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