Matt Brown vs Miguel Baeza Predictions, Picks, UFC Fight Night Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 5/11/2020

Matt Brown vs Miguel Baeza

UFC Fight Night

VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena

Saturday, May 16, 2020

Matt Brown will face off with Miguel Baeza at UFC Fight Night at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena on Saturday, May 16, 2020. The opener has Brown priced at +170 while Baeza is at -200.

Matt "The Immortal" Brown holds a record of 24-16-0. The 39-year-old tips the scales at 170 lbs and stands 6'0". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 75". Miguel "Caramel Thunder" Baeza stands in at 6'2" and records a weight of 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a record of 8-0-0. The 27-year-old has an arm span of 74". In the category of significant strikes, Matt Brown is landing 3.75 per min while Miguel Baeza is connecting on 4.26 significant strikes per minute. Brown lands 54% of the significant strikes he attempts while Baeza lands 58%. When it comes to defending in the cage, "The Immortal" allows 2.58 significant strikes per minute while "Caramel Thunder" takes 4.30. Brown also deflects 56% of the significant strikes that are directed at him and Baeza deflects 44% of the shots thrown.

In terms of wrestling, Matt Brown is the more efficient wrestler as he takes his opponents down 1.64 times per 15 min. Brown is getting his opponent to the mat on 47% of his tries and is stuffing 63% of all takedown attempts. Baeza is scoring a takedown on 33% of his takedown attempts and defending 90% of the attempts against him. In terms of sub attempts, Brown is the more skilled fighter by trying 1.6 subs per 3 rds while Baeza tries 1.3 subs per 3 rds.

In his previous bout, Matt Brown fought Ben Saunders and wound up getting the victory by a punch to the head in round 2. Saunders landed 38 of 49 total strikes that he let go. Brown walked away from this fight having landed 40 of 59 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Saunders landed 12 of 23, which gave him a rate of 52%. He finished the fight landing 10 of 17 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Brown landed 63% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 30 of 47. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he was 27 of 43 to the head. 41% of the significant strikes connected on by Saunders and 33% of them landed by Brown were tallied at distance.

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In the last bout for Miguel Baeza, he faced off with Hector Aldana and wound up taking home the win by way of a kick to the leg at distance in round 2. Aldana ended up connecting on 95% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Baeza landed 82% of his significant strikes at distance. Baeza ended up landing 57% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 35 of 61. He ended up connecting on 16 of 38 significant strikes to the head. Aldana landed 8 of 42 significant strikes in that battle. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he ended up landing 2 of 30 to the head. In relation to total strikes thrown in that contest, Aldana ended up connecting on 8 of 42 and Baeza landed 35 of 61 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights on the card to watch

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Anthony Hernandez encounters Kevin Holland. Hernandez walks into the Octagon holding a record of 7-1-0. The 26-year-old is weighing in at 185 lbs and measures in at 6'0". The orthodox fighter reaches 75". Holland measures 6'3" and weighs in at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 16-5-0. The 27-year-old has a wingspan of 81". Regarding grappling, Anthony Hernandez is able to score a takedown 5.48 times per 3 rounds and Kevin Holland is averaging a takedown 1.27 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Hernandez is connecting on 5.23 strikes/minute and is landing 54% out of all the strikes he attempts. Joining him in the Octagon is Kevin Holland, who is connecting on 54% of the strikes he attempts and is landing 4.16 per minute.

Another bout to watch is when Giga Chikadze is set to square up in the Octagon with Mike Davis. Davis has a career mark of 8-2-0. The 27-year-old tips the scales at 145 lbs and comes in at 6'0". The orthodox fighter reaches 72". Chikadze measures in at 6'0" and tips the scales at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight with a mark of 9-2-0. The 31-year-old has a reach of 74". Concerning wrestling, Mike Davis is able to curb 66% of the takedowns his opponents try and is taking his opponents down on 33% of his attempts. Chikadze is taking his opponents down on 33% of his attempts and is able to deflect 59% of all takedown attempts. In the category of striking, Davis is absorbing 6.36 strikes per minute and he lands 5.87 strikes per minute. Chikadze, on the other hand, absorbs 3.10 strikes per min and is connecting on 3.06 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Matt Brown (+170)

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