Louis Smolka vs Casey Kenney Predictions, Picks, UFC on ESPN 9 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 5/26/2020

Louis Smolka vs Casey Kenney

UFC on ESPN 9

UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, May 30, 2020

Louis Smolka will take on Casey Kenney at UFC on ESPN 9 at UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, May 30, 2020. The opening line has Smolka priced at +230 while Kenney is coming in at -270.

Louis "Da Last Samurai" Smolka comes into this fight with a record of 16-6-0. The 28-year-old records a weight of 135 lbs and comes in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 68". Casey Kenney stands 5'7" and is fighting at 135 lbs. The southpaw fighter walks into the cage holding a record of 13-2-1. The 29-year-old reaches 68". In the category of significant strikes, Louis Smolka connects on 4.22 per minute while Casey Kenney is landing 3.39 significant strikes per min. Smolka lands 46% of the significant strikes he tries while Kenney connects on 40%. In terms of defending in the Octagon, "Da Last Samurai" absorbs 3.47 significant strikes per minute while Kenney absorbs 3.20. Smolka also thwarts 53% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt while Kenney thwarts 56% of the shots thrown his way.

When it comes to takedowns, Louis Smolka is the more effective grappler as he is able to score a takedown 1.65 times per 15 minutes. Smolka is scoring a takedown on 34% of his tries and stopping 30% of all takedowns attempted on him. Kenney is scoring a takedown on 50% of the takedowns he attempts and thwarting 52% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. In terms of subbing opponents, Smolka is the more able fighter by attempting 2.1 finishes per 15 minutes while Kenney tries 0.6 finishes per 3 rds.

In his last fight, Louis Smolka fought Ryan MacDonald and ended up getting the victory by a punch to the head in round 1. MacDonald ended up landing 31 of 81 total strikes that he let go in that contest. Smolka ended the night having landed 60 of 116 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, MacDonald landed 30 of 80, giving him a percentage of 37%. He landed 20 of 65 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Smolka ended up landing 51% of his significant strikes by sticking 59 of 115. Of those significant strikes, he connected on 27 of 61 pointed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by MacDonald and 96% of them landed by Smolka were thrown at distance.

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In the last bout for Casey Kenney, he battled Merab Dvalishvili and ended up losing the fight by unanimous decision in round 3. Dvalishvili landed 68% of his significant strikes at distance while Kenney ended up connecting on 93% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Kenney ended up landing 38% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 45 of 118. He landed 22 of 87 significant strikes directed at the head. Dvalishvili ended up connecting on 63 of 181 significant strikes in that contest. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he landed 30 of 137 directed at the head. In regard to the strikes he fired off in this contest, Dvalishvili connected on 114 of 241 while Kenney landed 47 of 120 of all the strikes he threw.

Other fights to watch

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Chris Gutierrez meets Vince Morales. Gutierrez comes into this bout with a record of 14-3-0. The 29-year-old weighs 145 lbs and stands in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 67". Morales stands in at 5'7" and is fighting at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career total of 9-4-0. The 29-year-old extends his reach 70". In terms of takedowns, Chris Gutierrez takes his opponents down 0.38 times per 15 minutes while Vince Morales takes his opponents to the mat 0.30 times per 15 minutes. When talking about striking, Gutierrez tags his opponents 3.65 strikes/min and is landing 55% of his attempted strikes. The other fighter in this bout is Vince Morales, who is connecting on 39% of the strikes he has attempted and connects for an average of 4.84 per min.

If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Hannah Cifers is set to face off against Mackenzie Dern. Dern looks to add a victory to her career record of 7-1-0. The 27-year-old tips the scales at 115 lbs and stands in at 5'4". The orthodox fighter stretches 63". Cifers measures 5'1" and is fighting at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a record of 10-4-0. The 27-year-old extends her reach 62". Concerning wrestling, Mackenzie Dern curbs 8% of the takedowns her opponents try and is scoring a takedown on 8% of the times she tries. Cifers is finishing her takedown tries on 95% of her tries and is able to prevent 64% of all takedown attempts. In the matter of striking, Dern is absorbing 4.07 strikes per minute and she is dealing 3.24 strikes per min. Cifers, notwithstanding, is absorbing 5.55 strikes per min and is dishing out 4.82 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take Casey Kenney (-270)

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