Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Justin Gaethje Pick, 10/24/2020 Predictions UFC 254 Odds

by Tony Sink - 10/22/2020

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Justin Gaethje

UFC 254

Flash Forum in Abu Dhabi, UAE

Saturday, October 24, 2020

Khabib Nurmagomedov will face off with Justin Gaethje at UFC 254 on Saturday, October 24, 2020 for the UFC LightweightTitle. The opening moneyline has Nurmagomedov at -335 while Gaethje is at +275.

Khabib "The Eagle" Nurmagomedov will be looking to add a win to his career total of 28-0-0. The 32-year-old weighs 155 lbs and comes in at 5'10". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 70". Justin "The Highlight" Gaethje stands 5'11" and records a weight of 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career mark of 22-2-0. The 31-year-old stretches 70". Concerning significant strikes, Khabib Nurmagomedov is connecting on 4.11 per minute and Justin Gaethje lands 7.74 significant strikes per minute. Nurmagomedov is landing 49% of the significant strikes he tries and Gaethje is landing 59%. Concerning their defense in the cage, "The Eagle" absorbs 1.65 significant strikes per min while "The Highlight" takes 8.37. Nurmagomedov also curbs 67% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him while Gaethje thwarts 54% of the strikes thrown his way.

Regarding takedowns, Khabib Nurmagomedov is the more productive grappler as he takes his opponents down 5.35 times per 3 rds. Nurmagomedov is getting his opponent to the mat on 47% of his tries and stopping 84% of the attempts against him. Gaethje is getting his opponent to the mat on 10% of his takedown attempts and stopping 80% of the attempts against him. Regarding going for the sub, Nurmagomedov is the more capable fighter by attempting 0.7 submissions per 3 rounds while Gaethje goes for 0.3 submissions per 3 rds.

In his previous fight, Khabib Nurmagomedov fought Dustin Poirier and wound up getting the win via rear naked choke in round 3. Poirier ended up landing 30 of 57 total strikes that he let go. Nurmagomedov walked away from this fight having landed 54 of 77 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Poirier landed 12 of 39, which gave him a rate of 30%. He finished the fight landing 5 of 26 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Nurmagomedov ended up landing 53% of his significant strikes by landing 22 of 41. Out of those significant strikes, he landed 16 of 35 to the head. 100% of the significant strikes connected on by Poirier and 45% of them landed by Nurmagomedov were tallied at a distance.

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In the last Octagon appearance for Justin Gaethje, he fought Tony Ferguson and wound up getting the win by a punch to the head in round 5. Gaethje landed 72% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 143 of 197. He connected on 100 of 153 significant strikes aimed at the head. Ferguson landed 136 of 296 significant strikes in that contest. Out of those significant strikes, he connected on 64 of 212 directed at the head. Discussing the strikes he fired off in this contest, Ferguson ended up landing 136 of 296 while Gaethje landed 143 of 197 total strikes.

Other bouts to watch

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Robert Whittaker meets Jared Cannonier. Whittaker looks to add a victory to his career total of 22-5-0. The 29-year-old weighs in at 185 lbs and stands in at 6'0". The orthodox fighter reaches 73". Cannonier measures in at 5'11" and tips the scales at 185 lbs. The switch fighter will be looking to add a win to his record of 13-4-0. The 36-year-old reaches 77". In terms of takedowns, Robert Whittaker gets a takedown 0.46 times per 3 rounds while Jared Cannonier takes his opponents to the mat 0.18 times per 15 min. When it comes to striking, Whittaker is landing 4.51 strikes per minute and is landing 40% out of all the strikes he attempts. The other fighter in this bout is Jared Cannonier, who lands 51% of the strikes he attempts and is connecting on 3.72 per min.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Walt Harris is set to clash with Alexander Volkov. Volkov looks to add a win to his record of 31-8-0. The 31-year-old weighs 250 lbs and measures 6'7". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 80". Harris stands 6'5" and tips the scales at 250 lbs. The southpaw fighter holds a career record of 13-8-0. The 37-year-old has an arm span of 77". In the category of takedowns, Alexander Volkov is able to deflect 65% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is taking his opponents down on 70% of the times he tries. Harris is finishing his takedowns on 33% of the tries he takes and is able to curb 72% of all takedown attempts. With reference to striking, Volkov is absorbing 2.53 strikes/min and he is dealing 4.65 per minute. Harris, in contrast, absorbs 3.18 strikes per min and dishes out 2.97 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Khabib Nurmagomedov (-335)

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