Israel Adesanya vs Paulo Costa Pick, 9/26/2020 Predictions UFC 253 Odds

by Tony Sink - 9/25/2020

Israel Adesanya vs Paulo Costa

UFC 253

Flash Forum in Abu Dhabi, UAE

Saturday, September 26, 2020

Israel Adesanya will enter the Octagon against Paulo Costa at UFC 253 on Saturday, September 26, 2020 for the UFC middleweight title. The opening odds have Adesanya at -185 while Costa is at +160.

Israel "The Last Stylebender" Adesanya holds a mark of 19-0-0. The 31-year-old is weighing in at 185 lbs and comes in at 6'4". The switch fighter has a reach of 80". Paulo "The Eraser" Costa measures in at 6'1" and will fight at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a record of 13-0-0. The 29-year-old has a wingspan of 72". In the category of significant strikes, Israel Adesanya connects on 3.96 per minute and Paulo Costa lands 8.43 significant strikes per min. Adesanya lands 48% of the significant strikes he tries while Costa is connecting on 57%. Concerning their defense in the cage, "The Last Stylebender" allows 2.40 significant strikes per min and "The Eraser" takes 6.84. Adesanya also stops 65% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction while Costa defends against 53% of the strikes thrown his way.

In the grappling category, Israel Adesanya is the more productive wrestler as he gets a takedown 0.50 times per 15 minutes. Adesanya is taking his opponents to the canvas on 10% of his attempts and stopping 86% of all takedown attempts. Costa is scoring a takedown on 20% of the takedowns he attempts and stuffing 80% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding going for the sub, Adesanya is the more capable fighter by trying 0.3 finishes per 15 minutes while Costa attempts 0.2 finishes per 15 minutes.

In his last fight, Israel Adesanya went up against Yoel Romero and wound up getting the win by unanimous decision in round 5. Romero landed 40 of 89 total strikes that he let go in that contest. Adesanya ended the night having landed 48 of 132 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Romero ended up landing 40 of 89, which gave him a percentage of 44%. He finished the fight landing 20 of 58 significant strikes directed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Adesanya landed 36% of his significant strikes by sticking 48 of 132. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he landed 14 of 81 to the head. 87% of the significant strikes landed by Romero and 100% of them landed by Adesanya were thrown at a distance.

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In the last bout for Paulo Costa, he faced off with Yoel Romero as well and ended up getting the win via unanimous decision in round 3. Romero landed 94% of his significant strikes at distance while Costa ended up landing 93% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Costa landed 55% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 118 of 213. He ended up connecting on 67 of 148 significant strikes to the head. Romero ended up connecting on 125 of 284 significant strikes in that fight. Of all the significant strikes, he ended up landing 96 of 244 aimed at the head. In terms of total strikes attempted in that fight, Romero landed 125 of 284 while Costa landed 118 of 213 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts on the card to watch

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Dominick Reyes enters the Octagon against Jan Blachowicz. Reyes walks into the cage holding a mark of 12-1-0. The 30-year-old records a weight of 205 lbs and stands 6'4". The southpaw fighter has a reach of 77". Blachowicz stands 6'2" and steps on the scale at 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a record of 26-8-0. The 37-year-old has a reach of 78". In terms of takedowns, Dominick Reyes takes his opponents to the mat 0.24 times per 15 min while Jan Blachowicz scores a takedown 1.16 times per 15 minutes. In the striking category, Reyes lands an average of 4.88 strikes/minute and is landing 49% of the strikes that he throws. The other guy in this fight is Jan Blachowicz, who is connecting on 48% of the strikes he has attempted and is landing 3.45 per min.

Another bout to watch is when Brandon Royval is set to enter the Octagon with Kai Kara-France. Kara-France looks to add a victory to his total of 21-8-0. The 27-year-old tips the scales at 125 lbs and stands 5'4". The orthodox fighter stretches 69". Royval stands 5'9" and is weighing in at 125 lbs. The southpaw fighter walks into the Octagon holding a record of 11-4-0. The 28-year-old has an arm span of 68". Concerning grappling, Kai Kara-France is preventing 90% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is taking his opponents to the mat on 25% of his tries. Royval is finishing his takedown tries on 90% of his attempts and curbs 60% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Concerning striking, Kara-France is absorbing 3.79 strikes/min and he dishes out 5.27 strikes per min. Royval, at the same time, is taking 2.05 strikes per min and dishes out 1.93 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Israel Adesanya (-185)

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Israel Adesanya vs Paulo Costa Pick, 9/26/2020 Predictions UFC 253 Odds

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