Fabricio Werdum vs Alexander Gustafsson Picks and Predictions 7-25-2020 UFC Fight Island 3 Odds

Fabricio Werdum vs Alexander Gustafsson

UFC Fight Island 3

Saturday, July 25, 2020

Fabricio Werdum will take on Alexander Gustafsson at UFC Fight Island 3 at UFC Fight Island on Saturday, July 25, 2020. The opening line has Werdum priced at +290 while Gustafsson is at -350.

Fabricio "Vai Cavalo" Werdum steps into the cage with a record of 23-9-1. The 42-year-old records a weight of 231 lbs and measures 6'4". The orthodox fighter reaches 77". Alexander "The Mauler" Gustafsson comes in at 6'5" and is weighing in at 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight with a record of 18-6-0. The 33-year-old has an arm span of 79". Regarding significant strikes, Fabricio Werdum lands 3.61 per min while Alexander Gustafsson connects on 4.02 significant strikes per minute. Werdum is landing 52% of the significant strikes he tries while Gustafsson lands 40%. In terms of defending themselves, "Vai Cavalo" allows 2.62 significant strikes per min and "The Mauler" allows 3.44. Werdum also defends 55% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt while Gustafsson curbs 51% of them.

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In the wrestling category, Fabricio Werdum is the more apt wrestler as he is averaging a takedown 1.71 times per 3 rounds. Werdum is scoring a takedown on 31% of the times he tries and is stuffing 31% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Gustafsson is finishing his takedown tries on 39% of the takedowns he attempts and is defending 85% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Werdum is the more apt fighter by attempting 1.1 subs per 15 min while Gustafsson attempts 0.4 subs per 15 minutes.

In his previous bout, Fabricio Werdum fought Aleksei Oleinik and walked away with a loss by way of split decision in round 3. Oleinik landed 149 of 241 total strikes attempted in that contest. Werdum finished this fight landing 70 of 101 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Oleinik ended up landing 94 of 183, which means his percentage was 51%. He ended up landing 79 of 167 significant strikes aimed at the head. Statistically, Werdum ended up landing 63% of his significant strikes by sticking 53 of 83. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he connected on 27 of 52 aimed at the head. 76% of the significant strikes connected on by Oleinik and 64% of them landed by Werdum were done at distance.

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In the last bout for Alexander Gustafsson, he faced off with Anthony Smith and ended up taking the loss by way of rear naked choke in round 4. Smith ended up landing 89% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Gustafsson ended up connecting on 97% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Gustafsson landed 47% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 72 of 151. He ended up landing 26 of 79 significant strikes aimed at the head. Smith ended up connecting on 49 of 104 significant strikes in that contest. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 19 of 62 aimed at the head. Relating to the strikes he fired off in this contest, Smith ended up landing 51 of 107 while Gustafsson ended up connecting on 73 of 152 total strikes.

Other bouts on the card to watch out for

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Paul Craig enters the Octagon against Gadzhimurad Antigulov. Craig looks to add a win to his record of 12-4-1. The 32-year-old will fight at 205 lbs and comes in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter reaches 76". Antigulov stands 5'11" and will fight at 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his record of 20-6-0. The 33-year-old stretches 70". In terms of takedowns, Paul Craig gets a takedown 1.65 times per 15 min and Gadzhimurad Antigulov takes his opponents to the canvas 8.70 times per 15 minutes. In terms of striking, Craig connects for an average of 2.33 strikes/minute and lands 48% of his attempted strikes. Joining him in the Octagon is Gadzhimurad Antigulov, who tags the opposition on 51% of the strikes he attempts and lands an average of 2.32 per min.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Peter Sobotta is set to clash with Alex Oliveira. Oliveira will be looking to add a win to his career total of 20-8-1. The 32-year-old is weighing in at 170 lbs and measures in at 5'11". The orthodox fighter stretches 76". Sobotta comes in at 6'0" and steps on the scale at 170 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a victory to his total of 17-6-1. The 33-year-old has a reach of 75". When it comes to takedowns, Alex Oliveira is thwarting 58% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is taking his opponents to the canvas on 37% of his attempts. Sobotta is finishing his takedown tries on 35% of the tries he takes and is able to prevent 77% of all takedown tries against him. In the category of striking, Oliveira is absorbing 2.18 strikes per minute and he lands 2.88 strikes/min. Sobotta, moreover, is taking 2.89 strikes per min and is dealing 2.17 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take Fabricio Werdum (+290)

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