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Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje UFC Predictions & Tips - 4/18/2020


by Tony Sink - 4/9/2020

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THIS EVENT IS NOW CANCELLED DUE TO THE CORONAVIRUS

Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje

UFC 249

Tachi Palace Casino Resort in Lemoore, CA

Saturday, April 18, 2020

Tony Ferguson will enter the Octagon with Justin Gaethje at UFC 249 at Tachi Palace Casino Resort in Lemoore, CA on Saturday, April 18, 2020. The moneyline has Ferguson priced at -190 while Gaethje is priced at +165.

Tony "El Cucuy" Ferguson comes into this fight with a record of 26-3-0. The 36-year-old weighs 155 lbs and measures 5'11". The orthodox fighter reaches 76". Justin "The Highlight" Gaethje stands in at 5'11" and records a weight of 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 21-2-0. The 31-year-old has a reach of 70". Concerning significant strikes, Tony Ferguson connects on 5.81 per min and Justin Gaethje lands 8.57 significant strikes per min. Ferguson is connecting on 45% of the significant strikes he throws while Gaethje is connecting on 55%. When it comes to defending themselves, "El Cucuy" allows 3.75 significant strikes per min and "The Highlight" allows 9.67. Ferguson also stops 63% of the significant strikes that are directed at him and Gaethje is able to defend against 54% of the strikes thrown in his direction.

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Concerning grappling, Tony Ferguson is the more efficient grappler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 0.56 times per 15 minutes. Ferguson is scoring a takedown on 42% of his attempts and stopping 75% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Gaethje is getting his opponent to the mat on 5% of the takedowns he tries and is defending 80% of the attempts against him. When it comes to sub attempts, Ferguson is the more apt fighter by trying 1.4 submissions per 15 minutes while Gaethje attempts 0.6 submissions per 15 minutes.

The last time he fought, Tony Ferguson faced Donald Cerrone and wound up taking home the victory via TKO via a doctor's stoppage in round 2. Cerrone landed 68 of 185 total strikes that he threw in that fight. Ferguson ended the night having landed 104 of 200 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Cerrone landed 68 of 185, which means his percentage was 36%. He finished the fight landing 43 of 152 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Ferguson ended up landing 52% of his significant strikes by landing 104 of 200. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he landed 65 of 144 pointed at the head. 90% of the significant strikes connected on by Cerrone and 99% of them landed by Ferguson were done at a distance.

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In the last bout for Justin Gaethje, he battled Donald Cerrone and wound up getting the win by way of a punch to the head in round 1. Cerrone connected on 95% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Gaethje connected on 90% of his significant strikes at distance. Gaethje landed 65% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 40 of 61. He ended up connecting on 27 of 44 significant strikes aimed at the head. Cerrone landed 17 of 52 significant strikes in that battle. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up landing 12 of 45 to the head. Discussing total strikes that he let go in that fight, Cerrone ended up landing 17 of 52 and Gaethje ended up connecting on 40 of 61 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other bouts to watch

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Greg Hardy enters the Octagon against Yorgan De Castro. Hardy looks to add a victory to his record of 5-2-0. The 31-year-old steps on the scale at 265 lbs and stands 6'5". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 80". De Castro stands in at 6'0" and will fight at 250 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his record of 6-0-0. The 33-year-old stretches 74". In terms of takedowns, Greg Hardy takes his opponents to the canvas 0.52 times per 3 rounds and Yorgan De Castro is able to score a takedown 0.51 times per 15 min. In the striking category, Hardy connects on 4.77 strikes per minute and connecting on 49% of the strikes that he attempts. Joining him in the Octagon is Yorgan De Castro, who tags the opposition on 53% of the strikes that he throws and is connecting on 3.58 per minute.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Niko Price is set to take on Vicente Luque. Luque walks into the Octagon with a mark of 17-7-1. The 28-year-old steps on the scale at 170 lbs and stands in at 5'11". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 75". Price stands 6'0" and tips the scales at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout holding a record of 14-3-0. The 30-year-old extends his reach 76". Concerning wrestling, Vicente Luque is preventing 64% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is taking his opponents to the canvas on 50% of his attempts. Price is taking his opponents down on 23% of his attempts and defends against 61% of takedowns his opponents have tried. With regard to striking, Luque is absorbing 5.34 strikes/min and he is dishing out 5.18 strikes/min. Price, on the contrary, absorbs 4.46 strikes per minute and is connecting on 3.06 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Tony Ferguson (-190)

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