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Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje Predictions, Picks, UFC 249 Odds

by Tony Sink - 5/4/2020

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Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje

UFC 249

VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena

Saturday, May 9, 2020

Tony Ferguson will enter the Octagon against Justin Gaethje at UFC 249 at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena on Saturday, May 9, 2020. The opening line has Ferguson at -170 while Gaethje is coming in at +150.

Tony "El Cucuy" Ferguson steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 26-3-0. The 36-year-old tips the scales at 155 lbs and measures 5'11". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 76". Justin "The Highlight" Gaethje comes in at 5'11" and will fight at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout with a record of 21-2-0. The 31-year-old extends his reach 70". In the category of significant strikes, Tony Ferguson is connecting on 5.81 per min and Justin Gaethje connects on 8.57 significant strikes per min. Ferguson lands 45% of the significant strikes he tries and Gaethje connects on 55%. Regarding defending, "El Cucuy" absorbs 3.75 significant strikes per min and "The Highlight" allows 9.67. Ferguson also stops 63% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him while Gaethje thwarts 54% of the shots thrown in his direction.

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Regarding takedowns, Tony Ferguson is the more competent grappler as he gets a takedown 0.56 times per 3 rounds. Ferguson is taking his opponents to the canvas on 42% of his attempts and defending 75% of the attempts against him. Gaethje is finishing his takedown tries on 0% of his takedown tries and thwarting 80% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Ferguson is the more skilled of the two fighters by going for 1.4 subs per 15 minutes while Gaethje tries 0.3 subs per 15 min.

In his last bout, Tony Ferguson faced Donald Cerrone and took home the victory via TKO via a doctor's stoppage in round 2. Cerrone landed 68 of 185 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Ferguson ended the night having landed 104 of 200 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Cerrone landed 68 of 185, which gave him a rate of 36%. He landed 43 of 152 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side, Ferguson ended up landing 52% of his significant strikes by landing 104 of 200. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he landed 65 of 144 pointed at the head. 90% of the significant strikes connected on by Cerrone and 99% of them connected on by Ferguson were thrown at distance.

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In the last bout for Justin Gaethje, he fought Donald Cerrone and got a win for the night by a punch to the head in round 1. Cerrone connected on 90% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance while Gaethje connected on 90% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Gaethje connected on 65% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 40 of 61. He ended up connecting on 27 of 44 significant strikes aimed at the head. Cerrone ended up connecting on 17 of 52 significant strikes in that fight. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he landed 12 of 45 directed at the head. In relation to total strikes thrown, Cerrone was 17 of 52 and Gaethje landed 40 of 61 of all the strikes he threw.

Other bouts to watch

One more match to look forward to is when Henry Cejudo squares up in the Octagon against Dominick Cruz. Cejudo comes into this fight holding a mark of 15-2-0. The 33-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and stands in at 5'4". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 64". Cruz stands in at 5'8" and is weighing in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career mark of 22-2-0. The 35-year-old stretches 68". In terms of takedowns, Henry Cejudo is able to score a takedown 2.16 times per 15 min while Dominick Cruz scores a takedown 3.17 times per 3 rds. When talking about striking, Cejudo is landing 3.82 strikes/minute and landing 44% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side we have Dominick Cruz, who lands 31% of his attempted strikes and is landing 3.53 per min.

One more can't miss bout is when Jairzinho Rozenstruik is set to enter the Octagon with Francis Ngannou. Ngannou steps into the Octagon holding a record of 14-3-0. The 33-year-old will fight at 250 lbs and measures 6'4". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 83". Rozenstruik measures 6'4" and is fighting at 242 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a mark of 10-0-0. The 32-year-old extends his reach 78". When it comes to takedowns, Francis Ngannou is thwarting 71% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is taking his opponents down on 10% of his attempts. Rozenstruik is taking his opponents to the mat on 15% of the tries he takes and is able to deflect 75% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Concerning striking, Ngannou is taking 1.97 strikes per minute and he is landing 2.15 strikes per minute. Rozenstruik, notwithstanding, absorbs 3.05 strikes/min and dishes out 3.72 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Tony Ferguson (-170)

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